Fantasy-Football-First

Last night I attended a college basketball game here in Atlanta. George Mason, a team that made the remarkable Cinderella run to the Final 4 a few years ago, played at Georgia State. I follow George Mason closely since the days I used to live in Northern Virginia and went to most of their games. I drove downtown in rush hour traffic. I became nervous as my GPS took me on some roads I have never seen. Found a parking garage and paid the 3 bucks, found the ticket window and paid the 12 bucks. Found the gym and sat in the bleachers ( yes, real wooden bleachers ). 10 minutes to tip off so I sat and waited…and waited…and waited.

Then the game started and 4 minutes into it there was a media timeout, then another one 4 minutes later and so on and so on. The game itself wasn’t bad. There was a nice alley-oop play but I missed it because the guy in front of me stood up, there was a no look pass that I missed because I looked up at the scoreboard. My right arm started shaking and twitching like a drunk reaching for his last drink of the night. I missed my remote. I missed my couch. I missed being able to fast forward through the commercials.

Times have certainly changed.

Some of my greatest childhood memories were going to games with my Dad and brother. We were living in Rhode Island and would go to Providence College basketball games. It was in the 80’s and we would yell at the the refs for not calling a foul or calling a foul, whatever went against our team. We would yell at the coach, Rick Pitino, for not clearing his bench in a 20 point game with a minute to go. Good times. For some reason we liked to yell.

Watching games now is totally different. I’ll record it and watch a 2 hour game in 40 minutes. When my wife wants me to go grocery shopping with her on Saturday afternoons, I’ll pause it and pick it right back up when we get back and sometimes I’ll even catch up to it before it ends. When I catch some dude picking his nose in the crowd, i’ll rewind it and freeze it, call my wife into the room to witness this great event and hear her say “that’s great john” even though I think she really doesn’t mean it. Everything is in my control with the power of the remote.

Last year a neighbor asked me if I wanted to go to a Falcons game and I made up a story about going out of town on business, parked my car in the garage all weekend and snuck in and out of the house like I was a Jackson kid. I go through a lot of extremes to not give up the Red Zone Channel for a Sunday.

So I laughed this morning when someone on the CBS morning show said that “anybody who is anybody” is in Miami for the Super Bowl. As much as I love football and everything that goes with it, my desire to actually go to a Super Bowl is slim at best no matter what CBS is telling me that I am missing. I don’t think I need to witness the Miami Sound Machine playing an outdoor concert at 8am, I don’t think I need to know the top 5 restaurants to get a Cuban sandwich in South Beach, I don’t need to know the top 5 night clubs that you can pull your boat up to.

I’ll get by just fine sitting at home and laughing at how Dan Marino’s face gets a new wrinkle each time the discussion turns to whether Peyton Manning is the greatest quarterback of all time. I’ll enjoy listening to Shannon Sharpe’s analysis and probably learn a new word or two that I have never heard before. I’ll eagerly wait every one’s predictions which I am sure will be a lot of “Indianapolis 31, New Orleans 28″ which with a 5 point spread is their way of making everyone happy.

Sometime after the 4.5 hour pregame show and in between commercials featuring the youngest gambler in the world ( the E Trade baby ), a football game will be played and I’ll enjoy it from the comfort of my couch while enjoying the greatest Cuban sandwich north of Miami, my wife’s. I don’t need the Miami Sound Machine playing in my cul-de-sac or any boats docking in my backyard. My family, my couch, my remote is fine enough for this anybody who isn’t anybody.

Indianapolis vs. New Orleans ( + 5 )

Heavy money started coming in on Indianapolis early with the general public taking the Colts by a 2-1 margin. The last couple of days with the news of Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury has pushed the line down to 5 and even 4 on some books. You have to feel good about getting in early if you took New Orleans.

All signs are pointing to this being a high scoring affair and most likely it will be. So much for the defenses win championships argument. I am not a big fan of either team’s running game and I give a slight edge to Indianapolis’s passing game even though Reggie Wayne has disappeared the past few months. Dallas Clark always comes up big and Pierre Garcon has star potential.

New Orleans is no slouch either and Reggie Bush shows up in big games. Pierre Thomas has breakout potential as well. It will be interesting to see if New Orleans decides to either get into a shootout or try to slow it down early with their three running backs.

Many times these games comes down to a field goal ( just ask San Diego ). Would you rather have the kid who looks like he just showed up on a skateboard or the veteran who might have kicked when Johnny Unitas was playing?

With a blizzard on the East Coast, this will be the highest rated Super Bowl in history and the first time a game has ever gone into Overtime.

I’ll take the veteran Matt Stover over the kid Garrett Hartley.

Indianapolis gets the ring. New Orleans backers cash the checks. Everyone goes home happy.

Indianapolis 31 New Orleans 28

Take New Orleans.

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

The great thing about picking NFL games is that you control your own destiny. We hear that term often late in the season when teams are fighting for a playoff spot. Teams strive to control their own destiny and not have to depend on another team winning or losing to help them. In picking winners, I can either listen to all of the so called experts or I can make my own decision without their influence. I get to control my own destiny.

Last week, every expert that I read said to take the points with Baltimore. Some even called it their Best Bet of the week. Keep in mind, the services I consult with are not some dude on a message board but professionals that people fork over hundreds of dollars to get their advice. The more I read, the more I was convinced that I would be a fool not to take Baltimore. There was only one problem and that’s the fact that I have watched both teams all year and felt good about Indianapolis winning that game by more than a touchdown. I picked Indianapolis and won the game. It just seemed like the logical thing to do no matter how many experts were going the other way.

I’m no expert in picking games and my 52% winning percentage will back that up but it amazes me how many “experts” have a record below 50%. My system is simple. I read all the “experts” on Wednesday night and make my picks on Friday morning. That way I am not overly influenced by “Larry the Lock” who tells me that the Ravens cover 72% of the time when there is a full moon out. Sometimes the picks work out like my Indianapolis pick and sometimes they don’t work out like my Arizona pick. Either way, I control my own destiny.

Let’s do this.

NY Jets at Indianapolis ( -7.5 )

Indianapolis couldn’t have hoped for anything better than facing the # 6 and #5 seeds on their way to the Super Bowl. Seems like a walk in the park. Not so fast. The Jets are the only run first team left in the playoffs and that coupled with an absolute shut down cornerback means they can win any game in the trenches. I like the thought that the Jets have confidence going into this game after beating the Colts in Week 16. I watched that game very closely as it was my fantasy football Super Bowl and I had Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne. In the first half, the Colts were winning and moving the ball and the Jets weren’t against a short handed defense. If the Jets put Revis on Wayne, Manning will throw to Dallas Clark and vice versa. I like Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie to be the difference. If the Colts get ahead early, it could be a big win. Take Indianapolis.

Side Note: I read the article this week about the Jets head coach Rex Ryan’s 7,000 calorie a day diet. To put that in prosepctive, a man his size would burn about 250 calories a mile jogging. He would have to do about 28 miles to break even for the day. He needs his own reality show.

Minnesota at New Orleans ( -3.5 )

So much for New Orleans limping into the playoffs. They knocked Kurt Warner into a likely retirement and once again proved that they can be unstoppable at times. The announcers talked about how “focused” Reggie Bush looked in pregame warm ups. I very familiar with the term “focus” because I have to say it about 10 times a night to my 6 year old when he is doing his homework. You wouldn’t think a NFL player in the playoffs would have a problem with focus but you never know. I think he was probably worried about getting cut this off season because of his big contract and using the playoffs as an audition to get some team to overpay for next year.  That seems more likely than “focused”.  This game is going to be a shoot out and these might be the best two teams left in the playoffs. I think New Orleans stays focused and cruises to a cover. Take New Orleans.

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

This week an old friend of mine from college “friended” me on FaceBook. I haven’t seen or heard from the guy in over 15 years. We weren’t the best of friends but we did live on the same floor for a year and were in the same group that would go out on the weekends. When I got the friend request, I did what most probably do and that’s go right to the pictures. How much weight has he gained and how much hair has he lost are the first things I checked out. Scrolling through his pictures I see him standing there with his wife and kids around the Christmas tree. Now he’s on a beach. There he is at the Thanksgiving table pretending the whole turkey is his plate. There he is rolling around on the lawn with his kids. A real family man it seems.

That album of pictures on his FaceBook page is a lot different than the mental album of pictures that I had of him in my brain. Those mental pictures include such events as him passed out on my dorm room couch. There he is upside down doing a keg stand. There he goes stealing another beer out of my fridge. Here’s a lovely shot of him getting sick behind a tree walking home one night. Good times.

I am not sure all this FaceBook stuff is good for us as a society. Do I really need to know that an old co-worker of mine is “sitting down to watch the Biggest Loser with a bowl of ice cream. LOL”? Do I really need to know that someone is “getting on an airplane” followed by 10 comments of “have a safe flight” and another 20 thumbs up? Maybe. But I definitely don’t need to know that someone I havent’ seen in 10 years just reached Level 12 of Farmville, whatever that means.

I guess people think it’s fun to stay connected with every classmate and co-worker they ever had. I’m just here for the pictures.

Now let’s talk football.

It’s Week 19, eight teams are left and we have four tough games to pick this week. Last week Arizona, Baltimore, Dallas and the NY Jets all looked very impressive. Those images are fresh in our mind. Vegas knows that. Don’t fall in the trap. We have 4 teams fresh off an impressive win against 4 teams that haven’t played a meaningful game in 3-5 weeks. I am noticing a lot of people taking the points with the underdog this week but don’t under estimate the fact that the reason why these teams haven’t played a meaningful game in so long is because of how good they were during the season. Yes, there have been occasions recently when a wild card team gets hot and makes a Super Bowl run but overall the team with the better record wins in this round of the playoffs.

Let’s do this.

John Charles

Playoffs: 2-2

Regular Season: 133-118-5

Total:  135-120-5

Readers

Playoffs:  2-2

Regular Season:  130-121-5

Total:  132-123-5

 

Arizona at New Orleans ( -7 )

Arizona can score. Fast. I used the bathroom during the 4th quarter of the Arizona/Green Bay game last week and I think they scored twice during that time. How that game ended makes you think that maybe destiny is on their side this year. You can’t underestimate the luck factor. New Orleans seemed to wear down defensively as the season went on. They were on top of the world after that Monday night game against New England but didn’t wow me after that. I think the Kurt Warner Show gets high ratings in this one. Take Arizona.

Baltimore at Indianapolis ( -6.5 )

I firmly believe how Indianapolis finished the season will come back to haunt them. I’m just not sure if it’s this weekend or next. Major props to how Baltimore destroyed New England last week but Indianapolis is a much better team. Ray Rice will run to slow the game down and it will be close. However, I think Peyton Manning will stick with Dallas Clark and a 4 wide receiver set and pick the Ravens apart for a 7-10 point win. Take Indianapolis.

Dallas at Minnesota ( -3 )

Classic second round game. One team that looked great in the Wild Card round against a team on a bye. Vegas throws up the flag with a 3 point home favorite line which is their version of a toss up. I am thinking it’s going to be a lot of turnovers in the passing game and a second half dominated by the run. Adrian Peterson statement game. Take Minnesota.

NY Jets at San Diego ( -7 )

Great to see the Jets handing the ball off to Shonn Greene late in the season. I had been calling for that all year. You will hear him as the “sleeper” of next years fantasy drafts. I think this is going to be a predictable game. Jets will try to hand the ball off 40 times. Jets will shut down Vincent Jackson. Jets have no answer for Antonio Gates and a surprise performance from Darren Sproles. Jets lose by 10 but the future looks bright. Take San Diego.

Scroll down below and pick your winners.

Side Note: I blew last week’s Survivor Picks after going 17-0 during the regular season. If you were lucky enough to avoid my advice last week and you are still alive, I like San Diego as the top pick of the week and Indianapolis as a distant second.

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

It’s a bit sad to be winding down our first season on Fantasy-Football-First. Monday night I actually found myself watching a show titled Conveyor Belt of Love as opposed to the Monday Night game. Just didn’t feel right. We have some things to feel proud of so far. I made my fantasy league, the 12 Angry Men, Super Bowl only to lose by 4 points when Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne were foolishly taken out in the 3rd quarter. I went a perfect 17-0 in my Survivor Pool picks and split the pot with one other person which is pretty remarkable considering I had to publish my picks on Wednesday nights and not know the latest weather and injury updates. I finished the regular season 133-118-5 in my Point Spread Picks which isn’t great but not too bad.

But we’re not done yet.

Many people play Fantasy Football for the Playoffs. There are so many different types of these leagues it’s tough to give specific advice. What I will do in this column is rank the players as I see them for the entire playoffs and at the top of the page under Player Rankings, I will rank players for that given week. I will also continue to give Survivor Pool rankings and Point Spread Picks weekly.  If you need a specific opinion on something that I haven’t covered, feel free to email me at the top of the page or you can find me on Twitter which you can link to on the right of the page.  I do enjoy getting emails and do respond to each one. 

Let’s pick a team.

Here are my rankings for the playoffs at each position.  Picking a team like this is challenging because not only do you have to pick players that do well but also teams that will win and play multiple games.  Last year, for example, the people that won had Kurt Warner who played in 4 playoff games.  As with most things fantasy related, we need to be smart but mostly lucky.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers ( Green Bay )
2. Phillip Rivers ( San Diego )
3. Peyton Manning ( Indianapolis )
4. Drew Brees ( New Orleans )
5. Tony Romo ( Dallas )
6. Brett Favre ( Minnesota )
7. Tom Brady ( New England )
8. Donovan McNabb ( Philadelphia )
9. Kurt Warner ( Arizona )
10. Joe Flacco ( Baltimore )
11. Carson Palmer ( Cincinnati )
12. Mark Sanchez ( NY Jets )

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson ( Minnesota )
2. Ryan Grant ( Green Bay )
3. LaDainian Tomlinson ( San Diego )
4. Joseph Addai ( Indianapolis )
5. Pierre Thomas ( New Orleans )
6. Marion Barber ( Dallas )
7. Cedric Benson ( Cincinnati )
8. Ray Rice ( Baltimore )
9. Thomas Jones ( NY Jets )
10. Chris Wells ( Arizona )
11. Darren Sproles ( San Diego )
12. Felix Jones ( Dallas )
13. Kevin Faulk ( New England )
14. Willis Mcgahee ( Baltimore )
15. Brian Westbrook ( Philadelphia )

Wide Receivers

1. Vincent Jackson ( San Diego )
2. Miles Austin ( Dallas )
3. Reggie Wayne ( Indianapolis )
4. Sidney Rice ( Minnesota )
5. Randy Moss ( New England )
6. Greg Jennings ( Green Bay )
7. Donald Driver ( Green Bay )
8. DeSean jackson ( Philadelphia )
9. Marques Colston ( New Orleans )
10. Larry Fitzgerald ( Arizona )
11. Pierre Garcon ( Indianapolis )
12. Derrick Mason ( Baltimore )
13. Percy Harvin ( Minnesota )
14. Julian Endelman ( New England )
15. Robert Meachem ( New Orleans )

Tight Ends

1. Dallas Clark ( Indianapolis )
2. Antonio Gates ( San Diego )
3. Jermichael Finley ( Green Bay )
4. Brent Celek ( Philadelphia )
5. Jason Witten ( Dallas )
6. Todd Heap ( Baltimore )
7. Visanthe Shiancoe ( Minnesota )
8. Jeremy Shockey ( New Orleans )
9. Donald Lee ( Green Bay )
10. Ben Watson ( New England )

Kickers

1. Mason Crosby ( Green Bay )
2. Ryan Longwell ( Minnesota )
3. Nate Kaeding ( San Diego )
4. Garrett Hartley ( New Orleans )
5. Shaun Suisham ( Dallas )

Defenses

1. San Diego
2. New Orleans
3. Indianapolis
4. Minnesota
5. Green Bay

Let’s dive into the Survivor Pool.

We have 4 games which means 8 teams to choose from.  No spread is larger than 4 points right now so in Vegas’s eyes, these are all toss ups.  These games are interesting because each match up has already taken place this season.  Two of these games were played last week and one of these games is the third time the teams have faced each other this season.

Nothing stands out as the obvious pick so we are going to have to use the process of elimination.  I am immediately throwing out Dallas and Philadelphia as NFC East teams are unpredictable.  I’m not sold on Cincinnati and although the Jets have a lot of confidence, I am not picking a rookie quarterback.  New England and Baltimore are too close to call.  I like Green Bay to beat Arizona.  This may be a shocker but I am going with an underdog as my Survivor Pick of the Week.  My pick is Green Bay.

Here are my top 3 Survivor Pool Picks:

1. Green Bay
2. New England
3. Dallas

Point Spread Picks

NY Jets at Cincinnati ( -2.5 )

Both teams will try to run the ball and the team that does it the most will win.  The Jets magic number needs to be 40 carries.  The Jets are playing with a lot of confidence and it’s going to be interesting to see if the Bengals can just turn it on after sleepwalking through their game last week.  I believe in momentum in the wild card round and the Jets have it.  The early game on Saturday starts the weekend off with an upset.  Take NY Jets.

Philadelphia at Dallas ( -4 )

Is there anything better than a Saturday night playoff game?  These two teams know each other very well which is a handicapper’s nightmare.  Sooner or later Tony Romo is going to roll through a January.  I would lean towards the sooner and once again go with the team that is playing better late in the season.  Take Dallas.

Baltimore at New England ( -3.5 )

I am not sure what the Patriots were doing last week.  If they were trying to win the game, they didn’t.  If it didn’t really matter than why play Tom Brady the whole game except for one series?  Up until this season, I very rarely have questioned coaching decisions but this year I find myself questioning everything it seems.  The 4th and 2 play, all the challenges they never seem to win, the predictable fullback hand off on short yardage plays that never gets anything.  I don’t feel it with the Patriots this year at all.  They started the season trading their best defensive player for a 2011 draft pick and I don’t think they have ever recovered.  I do think they survive this week though with a huge game from Kevin Faulk.  Take New England.

Green Bay at Arizona ( -1 )

Don’t you just have the feeling that we are going to see a Brett Favre against the Packers in the playoffs this year?  Well for that to happen then the Packers need to win this game, which I think they will.  I like Green Bay a lot in this game.  Take Green Bay.

Good Luck.

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

NOTE – Week 17 Player Rankings are updated above. I did my best trying to figure out who is going to play and who isn’t. Week 17 is a joke for fantasy football. I always avoid any type of league that has a championship decided in Week 17.

John Charles Last Week: 9-7
John Charles Season: 124-111-5 ( 52.7% )

Readers Last Week: 9-7
Readers Season: 121-114-5 ( 51.4 % )

What a difference a year makes in the AFC. Last season the New England Patriots with an 11-5 record got shut out of the playoffs. This year 8-8 might be good enough and a team like Denver who has lost 7 of 9 and is imploding as I type could be playoff bound. This Sunday proves to be entertaining and the thought of fans in Pittsburgh, Miami, Jacksonville, Houston and Denver not only needing to win but “needing help” makes me giddy with the thought that it might not happen. I am loving the thought of fans in Baltimore and New York laying awake worried about whether their team will “control their own destiny” Sunday and whether their destiny involves playing golf on Tuesday.

Week 17 is as unpredictable as a preseason game. Can you imagine the surprise on the face of someone who slipped into a coma 2 months ago to awaken today, grab the paper and see that Indianapolis is a 8.5 point underdog to Buffalo? I am aware that a coma victim would have other things to worry about than laying some action on the Bills game but you get my point. It’s crazy but somewhere in all the craziness is an opportunity to make some money.

Not only are we going to pick the games this week, I am going to reveal my 2010 fantasy football resolutions while 2009 is still fresh in my mind.

Let’s do this.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-8.5)

Oh Indianapolis. You know I was born there so I am a Hoosier and it’s hard for me to come down hard on you. But….. I was trailing my fantasy football championship by 4 points when you pulled Peyton Manning. Not only did that cost me a grand, more importantly you cost me a trophy and 12 months of bragging rights. You played Manning for one series in the 2nd half, why not two? Made no sense and whenever you have to ask your fans to stop trashing you on your website message boards and radio shows then you might want to admit what you did to your fans was wrong. I agree with Bill Simmons of espn.com who wrote this week that if the Colts were only going to play Manning for half the game, why not the second half? Still gives your team a chance to win and with the same number of snaps. What a terrible way to end the season for Indianapolis. Take Buffalo.

2010 Resolution: Unless I can get a rule change passed this off season to have our league’s championship in Week 15, I am done with the Colts in 2010 except for Dallas Clark.

New Orleans at Carolina (-7)

Remember Mark Brunell? I think we all have had him on our fantasy team at one time or another. You’ll get a chance to watch him this Sunday for perhaps the last time. Carolina certainly waited long enough to get their season rolling. This is a classic Week 17 match up. One team that is looking to take out their frustration on a poor season and another team looking just to get out alive. This is my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week. Take Carolina.

2010 Resolution: Drew Brees reinforces my yearly resolution to not be “that guy” who takes a Quarterback with a late first round pick. As good as Brees was, he averaged only 2.5 points more per game than Matt Schaub who could be had in about the 8th round.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)

Jacksonville still has some slim playoff hopes while Cleveland seems to be playing with some confidence. I went with Derek Anderson last week and somehow was able to cash that ticket. I don’t trust Jacksonville on the road. Take Cleveland.

2010 Resolution:  For the past 3 seasons, I have had David Garrard as my back up quarterback.  I think I am ready to move on.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-3)

It’s the Game of the Week on Fox!  NFC East on the line.  One thing I have learned about the NFC East this year is that anyone can beat anyone anywhere.  Just a hunch this will be close and I’ll take the points in what could be a field goal game.  Take Philadelphia.

2010 Resolution:  I have never thought of any wide receiver as a Must Have but DeSean Jackson might be getting into that category.  # 3 overall in total points but he missed a game so he is actually the #1 wide receiver in average points per game.  The scary thing is that I think he can get better.

Chicago at Detroit (+3)

 Detroit still has something to play for in that if St. Louis wins and the Lions lose, the Lions would have the top pick in the upcoming draft.  I think the Lions will rise to the occasion.  Take Chicago. 

2010 Resolution:  Make sure your #1 wide receiver is on a possible playoff team.  Out of the top 12 wide receivers this year, 11 are on playoff teams or teams that could make the playoffs this weekend.  The only exception is Roddy White of Atlanta.  In other words, no Calvin Johnson in 2010.

New England at Houston (-8)

For all those teams needing the Patriots to win on Sunday, I’m sorry it’s not going to happen.  There’s no difference between the 3 and 4 seed and Tom Brady could use the rest.  In years past in similar situations we have seen a Vinny Testaverde touchdown pass and a Doug Flutie drop kick.  We could see Julian Edelman  run the wildcat offense all game for all I know.  Take Houston.

2010 Resolution:  Even though I am a Patriots fan, I don’t like drafting players from the Patriots on my fantasy team.  You can’t have your worlds colliding.

Pittsburgh at Miami (+3)

Both teams still have playoff hopes although Pittsburgh has a better shot assuming they win here.  They will but still end up disappointed.  Take Pittsburgh.

2010 Resolution:  Even though the fantasy football magazines will have him as a top 10 running back, don’t think of Rashard Mendenhall as a # 1 running back. 

NY Giants at Minnesota (-9)

Minnesota needs this game to have a shot at the #1 seed but I don’t see the Giants just laying down.  Ahmad Bradshaw gets the starting nod finally and I think the Giants can slow it down enough to hang close.  I still like Minnesota to win but not the cover.  Take NY Giants.

2010 Resolution:  I like to target the backups of injury prone running backs with my late round selections, this season it was Ahmad Bradshaw.  For 2010, I think it will be Ahmad Bradshaw.

Cincinnati at NY Jets (-10)

I firmly believe the Bengals will rest their starters for most of this game.  The Jets need to run the ball 40 times to win.  They will but I am not pushing 10 points with Mark Sanchez always a threat to give a quick 6 to the opposition.  Take Cincinnati.

2010 Resolution:  I drafted Shonn Greene this year thinking he would get about 15 carries a game.  That never really happened as he got more than 12 carries in just 2 games this year.  The talent is still there and let me be the first to call him a 2010 sleeper.

San Francisco at St. Louis (+7)

I wrote in my Survivor Pool column this week ( scroll down ) all about how much I like San Francisco in this game. Take San Francisco.

2010 Resolution:  Watch the quarterback situation in San Francisco.  If they bring in a top passer, I’ll think of Michael Crabtree as a top #2 wide receiver.  If not, I’ll pass on him.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+2.5)

Certainly the worst of the 1pm games which means for some reason  Directv’s Red Zone Channel will be showing this more than any other.  Truly a toss up but I’ll side with Atlanta.

2010 Resolution:  Don’t beleive the 2010 Michael Turner comeback stories but do believe in Matt Ryan bouncing back.

Green Bay at Arizona (-3.5)

Not only are these two teams playing this Sunday, they could be playing next weekend as well.  Arizona is at home and they are playing for something while Green Bay is locked into their position.  Take Arizona.

2010 Resolution:  The team that won my fantasy league this year rode Aaron Rodgers right into the playoffs.  I want Rodgers next year.

Kansas City at Denver (-11)

How about Hard Knocks next year with the Broncos?  What in the world is going on there?  When a team benches their best player 48 hours prior to their last game with a season on the line makes you wonder the extent of the dysfunction.  But who does that really punish?  This the biggest spread on the board this week and the trend of the last few weeks has been to take the points.  Take Kansas City.

2010 Resolution:  One of the biggest busts of 2009 has to be Eddie Royal.  I think that might equate to best values of 2010.

Baltimore at Oakland (+10.5)

We all know what this means for Baltimore, win and they are in.  Oakland has had 4 major upsets this season. Let’s call this the Upset Pick of the Week.   Take Oakland. 

2010 Resolution:

Ray Rice.  Someone will take him with their 1st round draft pick.  Don’t be that someone.

Washington at San Diego ( -3.5)

Are San Diego’s reserves good enough to beat Washington’s starters.  Sure.  By the way, is this San Diego’s year?  I am starting to think it is.

2010 Resolution:  I don’t care who coaches them next year, I don’t see any Redskins as having much fantasy value in 2010.

Tennessee at Seattle (+4.5)

I really think Tennessee wants this game to avoid the losing season.  I see a big game from Chris Johnson and Vince Young.  Take Tennessee.

2010 Resolution:  If I get that #1 pick, don’t think twice.  Out of East Carolina, Chris Johnson.

Good Luck in Week 17.

Well here we are in Week 17 having survived 16 weeks of games and still alive in our Survivor Pool. We’ve been lucky to get this far. We’ve dodged some bullets when there were teams I would have liked to have taken but couldn’t ended up losing. We’ve been fortunate that each team we said was our pick for the week in this Wednesday night column ended up winning that weekend. We are just 1 game away from a perfect season and unlike the Indianapolis Colts, that means something around these parts.

We had very few rules in picking teams at the beginning of the season and added one very important one early on.

1. Don’t save teams.  Don’t even look ahead.  If you think a team is going to win that week, use them that week.
2. Watch out for teams that have a winning record but barely squeak by or “find a way to win”.  One of the teams I didn’t use this year was the Indianapolis Colts.  Even when they were winning all those games, many times it was 4th quarter comebacks and you don’t want any part of that in Survivor Pools.
3. Try to avoid the road team on cross country trips. 
4. Shy away from division games if you can, especially the AFC and NFC East.

That was basically it going into the season.  Early on we added a 5th rule and that was to not pick against the Oakland Raiders.  In Week 6 they upset Philadelphia at home which I avoided due to rule # 3.  In Week 11 they beat Cincinnati at home and that showed me that even with a terrible record they could come to play with anybody.  That’s when I started cautioning against going up against the Raiders.  They pulled off another major upset at Pittsburgh and then another one when they won in Denver.  They have only won 5 games but 4 of those were major upsets and I don’t want any part of that type of unpredictability.

So we have had those 5 rules which has gotten us to the doorstep of a perfect season. 

We are going to add 2 more rules for Week 17. 

#6.  We will not pick a team that has already locked up a playoff spot. 

#7.   We will try to pick a team that is fighting for the playoff lives.

Let’s break it down.

Here are the 5 teams that I think have the best shot at winning on Sunday:

San Francisco:  San Francisco at 7-8 really wants to avoid a losing season.  They play at St. Louis who has only won 1 game all year and that was at Detroit.  If St. Louis wins this game it could cost them the #1 pick in next years draft.    Picking San Francisco would be a slight break of Rule # 4.

Denver:  Denver needs to win this game and have some help to get in.  All of the scenarios don’t appear likely and there is a chance this game could be meaningless by the time of it’s kickoff at 4:15pm.  What would be the team’s mindset if told 10 minutes prior to the game they have been eliminated?  Denver will be the popular pick this week because they are playing Kansas City at home.  I’m having a hard time endorsing a team that has lost 3 straight and 7 of 9.  Picking Denver would be a break of Rule #4 but that could be offset by Rule # 7.

Baltimore:  Baltimore is in a great position.  Win and they are in.  That alone makes you have to consider taking the Ravens this week.  They play at Oakland.  Picking  Baltimore, which many will do this week , would be a break of Rule # 3 and Rule # 5.

Tennessee:  Every loss this season has been to a playoff team or a team still in the playoff hunt.  This week they play at Seattle, a team definitely not playoff caliber.  It’s obvious Tennessee did not give up on their season although it appears Seattle certainly has.  Picking Tennessee would be a break of Rule # 3.

NY Jets:  They get to play in the 8pm game so they get the advantage of watching many teams fall out of the playoff picture all day long.  They play Cincinnati who may or may not have something to play for and may or may not play their regulars the entire game and may or may not even want to win the game depending on whom they would face in the playoffs.  All of this bodes well for the Jets and Rule # 7 would suggest taking them.

That’s the 5 teams I have narrowed my selections to.  Out of those 5, I have already selected San Francisco, Baltimore and Tennessee.  That leaves me to either pick  the NY Jets or the Denver Broncos.  I need to go with the rules that got me here and the rules say to take the NY Jets.  My pick is the NY Jets. 

Here is how I would rank these 5 teams:

1. San Francisco
2. NY Jets
3. Tennessee
4. Denver
5. Baltimore

Good Luck.