Fantasy-Football-First

Archive for the ‘Point Spread Picks’ Category

Last night I attended a college basketball game here in Atlanta. George Mason, a team that made the remarkable Cinderella run to the Final 4 a few years ago, played at Georgia State. I follow George Mason closely since the days I used to live in Northern Virginia and went to most of their games. I drove downtown in rush hour traffic. I became nervous as my GPS took me on some roads I have never seen. Found a parking garage and paid the 3 bucks, found the ticket window and paid the 12 bucks. Found the gym and sat in the bleachers ( yes, real wooden bleachers ). 10 minutes to tip off so I sat and waited…and waited…and waited.

Then the game started and 4 minutes into it there was a media timeout, then another one 4 minutes later and so on and so on. The game itself wasn’t bad. There was a nice alley-oop play but I missed it because the guy in front of me stood up, there was a no look pass that I missed because I looked up at the scoreboard. My right arm started shaking and twitching like a drunk reaching for his last drink of the night. I missed my remote. I missed my couch. I missed being able to fast forward through the commercials.

Times have certainly changed.

Some of my greatest childhood memories were going to games with my Dad and brother. We were living in Rhode Island and would go to Providence College basketball games. It was in the 80′s and we would yell at the the refs for not calling a foul or calling a foul, whatever went against our team. We would yell at the coach, Rick Pitino, for not clearing his bench in a 20 point game with a minute to go. Good times. For some reason we liked to yell.

Watching games now is totally different. I’ll record it and watch a 2 hour game in 40 minutes. When my wife wants me to go grocery shopping with her on Saturday afternoons, I’ll pause it and pick it right back up when we get back and sometimes I’ll even catch up to it before it ends. When I catch some dude picking his nose in the crowd, i’ll rewind it and freeze it, call my wife into the room to witness this great event and hear her say “that’s great john” even though I think she really doesn’t mean it. Everything is in my control with the power of the remote.

Last year a neighbor asked me if I wanted to go to a Falcons game and I made up a story about going out of town on business, parked my car in the garage all weekend and snuck in and out of the house like I was a Jackson kid. I go through a lot of extremes to not give up the Red Zone Channel for a Sunday.

So I laughed this morning when someone on the CBS morning show said that “anybody who is anybody” is in Miami for the Super Bowl. As much as I love football and everything that goes with it, my desire to actually go to a Super Bowl is slim at best no matter what CBS is telling me that I am missing. I don’t think I need to witness the Miami Sound Machine playing an outdoor concert at 8am, I don’t think I need to know the top 5 restaurants to get a Cuban sandwich in South Beach, I don’t need to know the top 5 night clubs that you can pull your boat up to.

I’ll get by just fine sitting at home and laughing at how Dan Marino’s face gets a new wrinkle each time the discussion turns to whether Peyton Manning is the greatest quarterback of all time. I’ll enjoy listening to Shannon Sharpe’s analysis and probably learn a new word or two that I have never heard before. I’ll eagerly wait every one’s predictions which I am sure will be a lot of “Indianapolis 31, New Orleans 28″ which with a 5 point spread is their way of making everyone happy.

Sometime after the 4.5 hour pregame show and in between commercials featuring the youngest gambler in the world ( the E Trade baby ), a football game will be played and I’ll enjoy it from the comfort of my couch while enjoying the greatest Cuban sandwich north of Miami, my wife’s. I don’t need the Miami Sound Machine playing in my cul-de-sac or any boats docking in my backyard. My family, my couch, my remote is fine enough for this anybody who isn’t anybody.

Indianapolis vs. New Orleans ( + 5 )

Heavy money started coming in on Indianapolis early with the general public taking the Colts by a 2-1 margin. The last couple of days with the news of Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury has pushed the line down to 5 and even 4 on some books. You have to feel good about getting in early if you took New Orleans.

All signs are pointing to this being a high scoring affair and most likely it will be. So much for the defenses win championships argument. I am not a big fan of either team’s running game and I give a slight edge to Indianapolis’s passing game even though Reggie Wayne has disappeared the past few months. Dallas Clark always comes up big and Pierre Garcon has star potential.

New Orleans is no slouch either and Reggie Bush shows up in big games. Pierre Thomas has breakout potential as well. It will be interesting to see if New Orleans decides to either get into a shootout or try to slow it down early with their three running backs.

Many times these games comes down to a field goal ( just ask San Diego ). Would you rather have the kid who looks like he just showed up on a skateboard or the veteran who might have kicked when Johnny Unitas was playing?

With a blizzard on the East Coast, this will be the highest rated Super Bowl in history and the first time a game has ever gone into Overtime.

I’ll take the veteran Matt Stover over the kid Garrett Hartley.

Indianapolis gets the ring. New Orleans backers cash the checks. Everyone goes home happy.

Indianapolis 31 New Orleans 28

Take New Orleans.

The great thing about picking NFL games is that you control your own destiny. We hear that term often late in the season when teams are fighting for a playoff spot. Teams strive to control their own destiny and not have to depend on another team winning or losing to help them. In picking winners, I can either listen to all of the so called experts or I can make my own decision without their influence. I get to control my own destiny.

Last week, every expert that I read said to take the points with Baltimore. Some even called it their Best Bet of the week. Keep in mind, the services I consult with are not some dude on a message board but professionals that people fork over hundreds of dollars to get their advice. The more I read, the more I was convinced that I would be a fool not to take Baltimore. There was only one problem and that’s the fact that I have watched both teams all year and felt good about Indianapolis winning that game by more than a touchdown. I picked Indianapolis and won the game. It just seemed like the logical thing to do no matter how many experts were going the other way.

I’m no expert in picking games and my 52% winning percentage will back that up but it amazes me how many “experts” have a record below 50%. My system is simple. I read all the “experts” on Wednesday night and make my picks on Friday morning. That way I am not overly influenced by “Larry the Lock” who tells me that the Ravens cover 72% of the time when there is a full moon out. Sometimes the picks work out like my Indianapolis pick and sometimes they don’t work out like my Arizona pick. Either way, I control my own destiny.

Let’s do this.

NY Jets at Indianapolis ( -7.5 )

Indianapolis couldn’t have hoped for anything better than facing the # 6 and #5 seeds on their way to the Super Bowl. Seems like a walk in the park. Not so fast. The Jets are the only run first team left in the playoffs and that coupled with an absolute shut down cornerback means they can win any game in the trenches. I like the thought that the Jets have confidence going into this game after beating the Colts in Week 16. I watched that game very closely as it was my fantasy football Super Bowl and I had Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne. In the first half, the Colts were winning and moving the ball and the Jets weren’t against a short handed defense. If the Jets put Revis on Wayne, Manning will throw to Dallas Clark and vice versa. I like Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie to be the difference. If the Colts get ahead early, it could be a big win. Take Indianapolis.

Side Note: I read the article this week about the Jets head coach Rex Ryan’s 7,000 calorie a day diet. To put that in prosepctive, a man his size would burn about 250 calories a mile jogging. He would have to do about 28 miles to break even for the day. He needs his own reality show.

Minnesota at New Orleans ( -3.5 )

So much for New Orleans limping into the playoffs. They knocked Kurt Warner into a likely retirement and once again proved that they can be unstoppable at times. The announcers talked about how “focused” Reggie Bush looked in pregame warm ups. I very familiar with the term “focus” because I have to say it about 10 times a night to my 6 year old when he is doing his homework. You wouldn’t think a NFL player in the playoffs would have a problem with focus but you never know. I think he was probably worried about getting cut this off season because of his big contract and using the playoffs as an audition to get some team to overpay for next year.  That seems more likely than “focused”.  This game is going to be a shoot out and these might be the best two teams left in the playoffs. I think New Orleans stays focused and cruises to a cover. Take New Orleans.

It’s a bit sad to be winding down our first season on Fantasy-Football-First. Monday night I actually found myself watching a show titled Conveyor Belt of Love as opposed to the Monday Night game. Just didn’t feel right. We have some things to feel proud of so far. I made my fantasy league, the 12 Angry Men, Super Bowl only to lose by 4 points when Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne were foolishly taken out in the 3rd quarter. I went a perfect 17-0 in my Survivor Pool picks and split the pot with one other person which is pretty remarkable considering I had to publish my picks on Wednesday nights and not know the latest weather and injury updates. I finished the regular season 133-118-5 in my Point Spread Picks which isn’t great but not too bad.

But we’re not done yet.

Many people play Fantasy Football for the Playoffs. There are so many different types of these leagues it’s tough to give specific advice. What I will do in this column is rank the players as I see them for the entire playoffs and at the top of the page under Player Rankings, I will rank players for that given week. I will also continue to give Survivor Pool rankings and Point Spread Picks weekly.  If you need a specific opinion on something that I haven’t covered, feel free to email me at the top of the page or you can find me on Twitter which you can link to on the right of the page.  I do enjoy getting emails and do respond to each one. 

Let’s pick a team.

Here are my rankings for the playoffs at each position.  Picking a team like this is challenging because not only do you have to pick players that do well but also teams that will win and play multiple games.  Last year, for example, the people that won had Kurt Warner who played in 4 playoff games.  As with most things fantasy related, we need to be smart but mostly lucky.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers ( Green Bay )
2. Phillip Rivers ( San Diego )
3. Peyton Manning ( Indianapolis )
4. Drew Brees ( New Orleans )
5. Tony Romo ( Dallas )
6. Brett Favre ( Minnesota )
7. Tom Brady ( New England )
8. Donovan McNabb ( Philadelphia )
9. Kurt Warner ( Arizona )
10. Joe Flacco ( Baltimore )
11. Carson Palmer ( Cincinnati )
12. Mark Sanchez ( NY Jets )

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson ( Minnesota )
2. Ryan Grant ( Green Bay )
3. LaDainian Tomlinson ( San Diego )
4. Joseph Addai ( Indianapolis )
5. Pierre Thomas ( New Orleans )
6. Marion Barber ( Dallas )
7. Cedric Benson ( Cincinnati )
8. Ray Rice ( Baltimore )
9. Thomas Jones ( NY Jets )
10. Chris Wells ( Arizona )
11. Darren Sproles ( San Diego )
12. Felix Jones ( Dallas )
13. Kevin Faulk ( New England )
14. Willis Mcgahee ( Baltimore )
15. Brian Westbrook ( Philadelphia )

Wide Receivers

1. Vincent Jackson ( San Diego )
2. Miles Austin ( Dallas )
3. Reggie Wayne ( Indianapolis )
4. Sidney Rice ( Minnesota )
5. Randy Moss ( New England )
6. Greg Jennings ( Green Bay )
7. Donald Driver ( Green Bay )
8. DeSean jackson ( Philadelphia )
9. Marques Colston ( New Orleans )
10. Larry Fitzgerald ( Arizona )
11. Pierre Garcon ( Indianapolis )
12. Derrick Mason ( Baltimore )
13. Percy Harvin ( Minnesota )
14. Julian Endelman ( New England )
15. Robert Meachem ( New Orleans )

Tight Ends

1. Dallas Clark ( Indianapolis )
2. Antonio Gates ( San Diego )
3. Jermichael Finley ( Green Bay )
4. Brent Celek ( Philadelphia )
5. Jason Witten ( Dallas )
6. Todd Heap ( Baltimore )
7. Visanthe Shiancoe ( Minnesota )
8. Jeremy Shockey ( New Orleans )
9. Donald Lee ( Green Bay )
10. Ben Watson ( New England )

Kickers

1. Mason Crosby ( Green Bay )
2. Ryan Longwell ( Minnesota )
3. Nate Kaeding ( San Diego )
4. Garrett Hartley ( New Orleans )
5. Shaun Suisham ( Dallas )

Defenses

1. San Diego
2. New Orleans
3. Indianapolis
4. Minnesota
5. Green Bay

Let’s dive into the Survivor Pool.

We have 4 games which means 8 teams to choose from.  No spread is larger than 4 points right now so in Vegas’s eyes, these are all toss ups.  These games are interesting because each match up has already taken place this season.  Two of these games were played last week and one of these games is the third time the teams have faced each other this season.

Nothing stands out as the obvious pick so we are going to have to use the process of elimination.  I am immediately throwing out Dallas and Philadelphia as NFC East teams are unpredictable.  I’m not sold on Cincinnati and although the Jets have a lot of confidence, I am not picking a rookie quarterback.  New England and Baltimore are too close to call.  I like Green Bay to beat Arizona.  This may be a shocker but I am going with an underdog as my Survivor Pick of the Week.  My pick is Green Bay.

Here are my top 3 Survivor Pool Picks:

1. Green Bay
2. New England
3. Dallas

Point Spread Picks

NY Jets at Cincinnati ( -2.5 )

Both teams will try to run the ball and the team that does it the most will win.  The Jets magic number needs to be 40 carries.  The Jets are playing with a lot of confidence and it’s going to be interesting to see if the Bengals can just turn it on after sleepwalking through their game last week.  I believe in momentum in the wild card round and the Jets have it.  The early game on Saturday starts the weekend off with an upset.  Take NY Jets.

Philadelphia at Dallas ( -4 )

Is there anything better than a Saturday night playoff game?  These two teams know each other very well which is a handicapper’s nightmare.  Sooner or later Tony Romo is going to roll through a January.  I would lean towards the sooner and once again go with the team that is playing better late in the season.  Take Dallas.

Baltimore at New England ( -3.5 )

I am not sure what the Patriots were doing last week.  If they were trying to win the game, they didn’t.  If it didn’t really matter than why play Tom Brady the whole game except for one series?  Up until this season, I very rarely have questioned coaching decisions but this year I find myself questioning everything it seems.  The 4th and 2 play, all the challenges they never seem to win, the predictable fullback hand off on short yardage plays that never gets anything.  I don’t feel it with the Patriots this year at all.  They started the season trading their best defensive player for a 2011 draft pick and I don’t think they have ever recovered.  I do think they survive this week though with a huge game from Kevin Faulk.  Take New England.

Green Bay at Arizona ( -1 )

Don’t you just have the feeling that we are going to see a Brett Favre against the Packers in the playoffs this year?  Well for that to happen then the Packers need to win this game, which I think they will.  I like Green Bay a lot in this game.  Take Green Bay.

Good Luck.

NOTE – Week 17 Player Rankings are updated above. I did my best trying to figure out who is going to play and who isn’t. Week 17 is a joke for fantasy football. I always avoid any type of league that has a championship decided in Week 17.

John Charles Last Week: 9-7
John Charles Season: 124-111-5 ( 52.7% )

Readers Last Week: 9-7
Readers Season: 121-114-5 ( 51.4 % )

What a difference a year makes in the AFC. Last season the New England Patriots with an 11-5 record got shut out of the playoffs. This year 8-8 might be good enough and a team like Denver who has lost 7 of 9 and is imploding as I type could be playoff bound. This Sunday proves to be entertaining and the thought of fans in Pittsburgh, Miami, Jacksonville, Houston and Denver not only needing to win but “needing help” makes me giddy with the thought that it might not happen. I am loving the thought of fans in Baltimore and New York laying awake worried about whether their team will “control their own destiny” Sunday and whether their destiny involves playing golf on Tuesday.

Week 17 is as unpredictable as a preseason game. Can you imagine the surprise on the face of someone who slipped into a coma 2 months ago to awaken today, grab the paper and see that Indianapolis is a 8.5 point underdog to Buffalo? I am aware that a coma victim would have other things to worry about than laying some action on the Bills game but you get my point. It’s crazy but somewhere in all the craziness is an opportunity to make some money.

Not only are we going to pick the games this week, I am going to reveal my 2010 fantasy football resolutions while 2009 is still fresh in my mind.

Let’s do this.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-8.5)

Oh Indianapolis. You know I was born there so I am a Hoosier and it’s hard for me to come down hard on you. But….. I was trailing my fantasy football championship by 4 points when you pulled Peyton Manning. Not only did that cost me a grand, more importantly you cost me a trophy and 12 months of bragging rights. You played Manning for one series in the 2nd half, why not two? Made no sense and whenever you have to ask your fans to stop trashing you on your website message boards and radio shows then you might want to admit what you did to your fans was wrong. I agree with Bill Simmons of espn.com who wrote this week that if the Colts were only going to play Manning for half the game, why not the second half? Still gives your team a chance to win and with the same number of snaps. What a terrible way to end the season for Indianapolis. Take Buffalo.

2010 Resolution: Unless I can get a rule change passed this off season to have our league’s championship in Week 15, I am done with the Colts in 2010 except for Dallas Clark.

New Orleans at Carolina (-7)

Remember Mark Brunell? I think we all have had him on our fantasy team at one time or another. You’ll get a chance to watch him this Sunday for perhaps the last time. Carolina certainly waited long enough to get their season rolling. This is a classic Week 17 match up. One team that is looking to take out their frustration on a poor season and another team looking just to get out alive. This is my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week. Take Carolina.

2010 Resolution: Drew Brees reinforces my yearly resolution to not be “that guy” who takes a Quarterback with a late first round pick. As good as Brees was, he averaged only 2.5 points more per game than Matt Schaub who could be had in about the 8th round.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)

Jacksonville still has some slim playoff hopes while Cleveland seems to be playing with some confidence. I went with Derek Anderson last week and somehow was able to cash that ticket. I don’t trust Jacksonville on the road. Take Cleveland.

2010 Resolution:  For the past 3 seasons, I have had David Garrard as my back up quarterback.  I think I am ready to move on.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-3)

It’s the Game of the Week on Fox!  NFC East on the line.  One thing I have learned about the NFC East this year is that anyone can beat anyone anywhere.  Just a hunch this will be close and I’ll take the points in what could be a field goal game.  Take Philadelphia.

2010 Resolution:  I have never thought of any wide receiver as a Must Have but DeSean Jackson might be getting into that category.  # 3 overall in total points but he missed a game so he is actually the #1 wide receiver in average points per game.  The scary thing is that I think he can get better.

Chicago at Detroit (+3)

 Detroit still has something to play for in that if St. Louis wins and the Lions lose, the Lions would have the top pick in the upcoming draft.  I think the Lions will rise to the occasion.  Take Chicago. 

2010 Resolution:  Make sure your #1 wide receiver is on a possible playoff team.  Out of the top 12 wide receivers this year, 11 are on playoff teams or teams that could make the playoffs this weekend.  The only exception is Roddy White of Atlanta.  In other words, no Calvin Johnson in 2010.

New England at Houston (-8)

For all those teams needing the Patriots to win on Sunday, I’m sorry it’s not going to happen.  There’s no difference between the 3 and 4 seed and Tom Brady could use the rest.  In years past in similar situations we have seen a Vinny Testaverde touchdown pass and a Doug Flutie drop kick.  We could see Julian Edelman  run the wildcat offense all game for all I know.  Take Houston.

2010 Resolution:  Even though I am a Patriots fan, I don’t like drafting players from the Patriots on my fantasy team.  You can’t have your worlds colliding.

Pittsburgh at Miami (+3)

Both teams still have playoff hopes although Pittsburgh has a better shot assuming they win here.  They will but still end up disappointed.  Take Pittsburgh.

2010 Resolution:  Even though the fantasy football magazines will have him as a top 10 running back, don’t think of Rashard Mendenhall as a # 1 running back. 

NY Giants at Minnesota (-9)

Minnesota needs this game to have a shot at the #1 seed but I don’t see the Giants just laying down.  Ahmad Bradshaw gets the starting nod finally and I think the Giants can slow it down enough to hang close.  I still like Minnesota to win but not the cover.  Take NY Giants.

2010 Resolution:  I like to target the backups of injury prone running backs with my late round selections, this season it was Ahmad Bradshaw.  For 2010, I think it will be Ahmad Bradshaw.

Cincinnati at NY Jets (-10)

I firmly believe the Bengals will rest their starters for most of this game.  The Jets need to run the ball 40 times to win.  They will but I am not pushing 10 points with Mark Sanchez always a threat to give a quick 6 to the opposition.  Take Cincinnati.

2010 Resolution:  I drafted Shonn Greene this year thinking he would get about 15 carries a game.  That never really happened as he got more than 12 carries in just 2 games this year.  The talent is still there and let me be the first to call him a 2010 sleeper.

San Francisco at St. Louis (+7)

I wrote in my Survivor Pool column this week ( scroll down ) all about how much I like San Francisco in this game. Take San Francisco.

2010 Resolution:  Watch the quarterback situation in San Francisco.  If they bring in a top passer, I’ll think of Michael Crabtree as a top #2 wide receiver.  If not, I’ll pass on him.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+2.5)

Certainly the worst of the 1pm games which means for some reason  Directv’s Red Zone Channel will be showing this more than any other.  Truly a toss up but I’ll side with Atlanta.

2010 Resolution:  Don’t beleive the 2010 Michael Turner comeback stories but do believe in Matt Ryan bouncing back.

Green Bay at Arizona (-3.5)

Not only are these two teams playing this Sunday, they could be playing next weekend as well.  Arizona is at home and they are playing for something while Green Bay is locked into their position.  Take Arizona.

2010 Resolution:  The team that won my fantasy league this year rode Aaron Rodgers right into the playoffs.  I want Rodgers next year.

Kansas City at Denver (-11)

How about Hard Knocks next year with the Broncos?  What in the world is going on there?  When a team benches their best player 48 hours prior to their last game with a season on the line makes you wonder the extent of the dysfunction.  But who does that really punish?  This the biggest spread on the board this week and the trend of the last few weeks has been to take the points.  Take Kansas City.

2010 Resolution:  One of the biggest busts of 2009 has to be Eddie Royal.  I think that might equate to best values of 2010.

Baltimore at Oakland (+10.5)

We all know what this means for Baltimore, win and they are in.  Oakland has had 4 major upsets this season. Let’s call this the Upset Pick of the Week.   Take Oakland. 

2010 Resolution:

Ray Rice.  Someone will take him with their 1st round draft pick.  Don’t be that someone.

Washington at San Diego ( -3.5)

Are San Diego’s reserves good enough to beat Washington’s starters.  Sure.  By the way, is this San Diego’s year?  I am starting to think it is.

2010 Resolution:  I don’t care who coaches them next year, I don’t see any Redskins as having much fantasy value in 2010.

Tennessee at Seattle (+4.5)

I really think Tennessee wants this game to avoid the losing season.  I see a big game from Chris Johnson and Vince Young.  Take Tennessee.

2010 Resolution:  If I get that #1 pick, don’t think twice.  Out of East Carolina, Chris Johnson.

Good Luck in Week 17.

I have a lot going on this weekend. I am 1 of 2 people left in the Survivor Pool on this web site. I am in the Super Bowl of my 12-team league, the 12 Angry Men, going up against a team that went 13-1 on the regular season. I am currently 12 games over .500 in my season long point spread picks and would like to get that up to 20. Not to mention my team, the New England Patriots, need my help as a 13th man ( I reserve the 12th man for those actually at the game ). We have a lot to touch on:

Survivor Pool: Wow, what an upset. A total blindside. I did not see that coming. I was stunned. Of course I am talking about Russell losing in the finals on Survivor. I watched all season with my wife and I kept telling her that this is the most dominating performance I have ever seen on a reality show but he did have one flaw that cost him the game and that was the fact that he didn’t have to burn all those bridges face to face. He didn’t have to seek out whomever he knew was getting voted out and get their sense of hope up on a deal that would never come about. Don’t burn bridges unless you have no other choice and he didn’t do that. Oh, in my other Survivor Pool………I have been saying for most of the season to stay clear of the Oakland Raiders. Last week, for the second time this season, they won a game in which they were at least a 14 point favorite. What Oakland has done to Survivor Pools this year is comical. If by chance you are still alive, here’s my top 5 for this week:

1. New Orleans:  Confidence booster game.
2. Arizona:  Need to get that Swagger back.
3. Green Bay:  Playing great.
4. Cincinnati:  Won’t lose 2 straight.
5. San Francisco:  Lions on the road should be a no brainer.

I have already selected New Orleans and Arizona this year and therefore my pick is Green Bay. 

Fantasy Super Bowl: 

My quarterback is Peyton Manning who may or may not play a whole game.  I also have Reggie Wayne so that’s double the worry on that situation.  My running back is Ryan Grant who I feel good about in his match up against Seattle.  My 2nd running back is either Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Forsett or I can go with Jerome Harrison who I just picked up off the waiver wire after he was dropped a few weeks ago.  I am leaning towards starting Harrison which would mean that I picked up a starting running back off the waiver wire to start in the Super Bowl.  According to my player rankings at the top of the page, I should go with Grant and Harrison which is what I’ll do…..and then pray.

If you are playing in your fantasy playoffs this weekend, my only advice is to stay calm.  Don’t over analyze it.  Go with your gut and not a web site.  Last week I was torn between Ryan Grant and Ahmad Bradshaw.  Grant has been the much better player all season but he was going against Pittsburgh and Bradshaw was sure to see some significant carries against Washington.  I consulted the player rankings for 30 different fantasy football web sites to compare Grant and Bradshaw and all 30 web sites, including my own, had Grant ranked much higher.  My gut was telling me that Pittsburgh would hold Grant in check but Washington couldn’t stop Bradshaw and to start him.  I went with the 30 web sites over my gut and my gut was right by a landslide.  If you lose, it’s much better to blame yourself than a web site.

Point Spread Picks

John Charles Last Week:  4-10-2

John Charles Fri. Night Game:  1-0

John Charles Season:  116-104-5   ( 52.7% )

Readers Last Week:  4-10-2

Readers Fri. Night Game:  1-0

Readers Season:  113-107-5  ( 51.3% )

Let’s do this.

Seattle at Green Bay ( -14 )

I already mentioned that Green Bay is my Survivor Pool pick so it’s safe to say that I like them to win this game.  But cover?   The fact that Seattle still hasn’t come out and said that Justin Forsett is their starting running back even though every one else in the world knows he’s the best you have tells me all I need to know about Seattle.  Take Green Bay.

Oakland at Cleveland ( -3 )

Two of the NFL’s hottest teams are hooking up in this conference match up.  Ok, maybe not “hot” like how your shower gets when the toilet is flushed but more like the  ”hot” that  your 6 year old thinks his chicken nuggets are after sitting on his plate for 10 minutes.  I need to say this very quietly so no one shows up to my house offering to take me to a safe place, I’m pushing the points with Derek Anderson.  Take Cleveland.

Kansas City at Cincinnati ( -13.5 )

I really hate these 2 touchdown spreads.  I would like to think Cincinnati will bounce back from last weeks loss and that Larry Johnson has been begging for the ball all week.  Take Cincinnati.

Buffalo at Atlanta ( -9 )

Atlanta is still playing hard even though their season is done and that should be enough to get by and cover the rather unusual high spread here.  Take Atlanta.

Houston at Miami ( -3 )

The winner of this game puts them into a position to be playing for something next week while the loser of this game is done.  Classic game of a rushing team against a passing team.  I think the passing team gets it done.  This is my Upset Pick of the Week.  Take Houston.

Carolina at NY Giants ( -7 )

The Giants will still be playing for something  in this game so I like them to continue putting up a lot of points.  Take NY Giants.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans ( -14 )

On paper this should be a blow out.  I would want to take the points in this type of game if it wasn’t for the fact that New Orleans lost last week.  I think they want to set the record straight.  Take New Orleans.

Jacksonville at New England ( -7.5 )

Santa was good to me and my # 51 Jerod Mayo jersey is ready to be broken in this weekend.  Unfortunately, I don’t think this is a good match up for the Patriots.  They have no answer for Maurice Jones-Drew.  They may win but I’ll take the points.  Take Jacksonville.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh ( -2.5 )

The Steelers were done last week until ………they pulled it out and if they win this game, they are looking good for a wild card.  Don’t ever count out the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh.

Denver at Philadelphia ( -7)

I have been on and off the Broncos bandwagon so much this year I don’t think I have the strength to do it again.  Philadelphia is playing great and I don’t trust a team making a cross country trip after a devastating loss.  This is my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week.   Take Philadelphia.

St. Louis at Arizona ( -14 )

I believe Arizona should win this game.  I believe I am not alone in this opinion.  Take Arizona.

Detroit at San Francisco ( -13 )

The common trend this season is to take Detroit at home and not when on the road.  Sounds good.  Take San Francisco.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (  -5.5 )

I am starting to think Indianapolis might want this perfect record thing.  Tough to predict but I’ll assume the Colts will play at 100%.  Take Indianapolis.

Dallas at Washington ( +7 )

Two teams going in total opposite directions.  I’ll go with the one going upward.  Take Dallas.

Minnesota at Chicago ( +7 )

The Brett Favre Show hits Chicago.  Take Minnesota.

Good Luck in Week 16.

John Charles Last Week: 9-7
John Charles Thurs. Night: 0-1
John Charles Season: 111-95-3 ( 53.8 % )

Readers Last Week: 12-4
Readers Thurs. Night: 1-0
Readers Season: 109-97-3 ( 52.9 % )

What a great record last week from the consensus of the Readers on this site. You all went an impressive 12-4 and have pulled within just a few games of myself. We have a great weekend of games on tap and an added bonus of an East Coast storm to make it all the more interesting.

It’s been kind of hectic these last few days getting ready for the holidays so today’s column will be pretty much a “quick hits” picks column. Every year I say to my wife that I want to get it all done early and yet every year I am the lonely guy at the mall on Xmas eve. This year we all get a present from the NFL and that’s a rare Christmas game. But before we get to that, we need to get through this weekend.

Let’s do this Xmas style.

Dallas at New Orleans ( -7 )

I love the Saturday night games and would welcome them throughout the entire season. This one figures to be a high scoring affair as New Orleans goes for the perfect record and Dallas is fighting for their wild card lives. Throw in the fact that it’s fantasy football playoffs time and all eyes will be on Drew Brees, Tony Romo and a half dozen running backs and it’s going to be a ratings bonanza. I think New Orleans wants the perfect record bad and will be airing it out against a Dallas team that I don’t trust in December. Take New Orleans.

Xmas Style- Saturday night will be a big night for office parties across the country. Is there anything worse than going to your spouse’s office party? You don’t know anyone. You’ve been warned not to tell any of your usual jokes and stories. Your wife forbid you to do any shots in case you get in that magical zone which gets you out on the dance floor. Every guy that you get introduced to makes you wonder if they are the one that flirts with your wife all day. I usually just find myself by the bar secretly making fun of the guys from the IT department. Happy Holidays.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh ( -2 )

The playoffs start here for the Steelers. Thanks to Jacksonville’s loss last night, the Steelers still have a pulse. Green Bay needs this game as well to stay in control of the #5 seed in the NFC. Green Bay had a great game last week rushing the ball and that will need to continue if they want to go far. I have gone with Pittsburgh the past few weeks thinking it was their Back Against the Wall game and they have let me down each time. Sometimes you are what you are. Take Green Bay.

Xmas Style- Out of all the cities I have been to, my favorite around Xmas time is Washington, DC. I know it’s a tourist thing to do but going down to see the National Christmas Tree and the trees representing all the States is good clean family fun.

Miami at Tennessee ( -3 )

Big game for both teams as that last wild card spot in the AFC is up for grabs. Is there any way Tennessee’s Chris Johnson doesn’t go #1 in your fantasy draft next year? Look for him to get 25+ carries and make this wild card race all the more messier. Take Tennessee.

Xmas Style - We went out and got our Christmas tree last week at the same place we always do and it was 30 dollars. Last year it was 80. Pleasant surprise and when I inquired to the clerk about why it was so much cheaper this year, their response was ” I dunno”. All week I have been thinking about it. For some strange reason I need to know why the price of Christmas trees have dropped so dramatically. These are the weird things that keep me up at night.

New England at Buffalo ( +7 )

I have come to the following conclusions regarding the Patriots: 1. Tom Brady is hurt and why the Patriots never go out and get a quality veteran backup baffles me. 2. The Patriots can’t defend the pass. 3. Randy Moss is in shut down mode. Patriots haven’t won a game on the road in the United States all year and yet they continue to be road favorites. I’ll take the points. Take Buffalo.

Xmas Style - My wife got me up early on Black Friday to go to Target to get our son’s major gift, an air hockey table.  We had a long debate about whether these Black Friday deals were worth it or just a bunch of hype.  As I was hauling this 50 pound box out of the store at 6 am, I kept reminding myself that I was getting a good deal.  Until yesterday when I saw the same item 20 bucks cheaper.  Darn you Target.  Never again on Black Friday.

Arizona at Detroit ( +12.5 )

Arizona came back to earth last week and Kurt Warner looked totally out of it.  Detroit plays better at home but I think Arizona runs away with this one.  Take Arizona.

San Francisco at Philadelphia ( + 8 )

This is an intriquing game because of the line.  San Francisco can play anyone tough when they get the running game going early.  They may not win but they keep it close.  We saw that last week in their win over Arizona and earlier this year in a loss to Indianapolis.  Normally I don’t like West Coast teams playing on the road in the 1pm games but I am feeling like this might be another close game in which both teams will be utilizing a major emphasis on the run.  8 points seems a few too high to me so I’ll take them.  Take San Francisco.

Xmas Style – The best outdoor venue for a concert that I have ever been to is the Greek Theatre in Berkeley, California.  Truly amazing experience.  The only negative was that is was sooo cold that night.  One of the coldest I have ever been at an outdoor event.  Did I mention it was in September?  I bet that area is  really nice around Xmas time.

Atlanta at NY Jets ( -4.5 )

I mentioned on last week’s podcast that I predict the Jets to win their last 4 games and make the playoffs.  This would be game number 2 of that 4 game stretch.  Take NY Jets.

Xmas Style – The other day at an office Secret Santa gift exchange, one person gave their person a 25 dollar American Express gift card.  That person, in return got a 25 dollar American Express gift card.  I guess the only one who made out in that exchange was American Express.  Happy Holidays.

Chicago at Baltimore ( – 11 )

If the season ended right now the Ravens would be the last Wild Card in the AFC .  They moved this game time to 4pm to give the stadium more time to clean up after this weekends snowstorm.  A cold windy day featuring  2 cold weather teams.  You have to love it.  What I love is getting 11 points in a game where the total should be in the 30′s.  This is my Upset Pick of the Week.  Take Chicago.

Xmas Style – I flew in to BWI airport about 10 years ago after a big snowstorm.  They plowed the airport parking lot and even though it cleared the lanes of the parking lot, it completely covered the cars with snow.  On the shuttle bus, a young lady was having an attitude about how they didn’t dig out people’s cars for them.  She demanded the driver to call into the station to have someone come out and dig out her car for her.  The driver said to just stand by her car and someone will be out to dig out her car.  3 hours later, I finished digging out my car by hand and noticed her as I was driving out still standing by her car.  As I drove by, I rolled down my window and said “Happy Holidays” as I passed her.  That was the last time anyone gave me the finger. 

Cleveland at Kansas City ( -2 )

When these 2 teams hook up you have to throw out the records.  Cleveland has been playing much better lately under Brady Quinn.  Every time I have seen Kansas City play this year I have not been impressed.  I can’t believe I am taking Eric Mangini in a road game but Kansas City is making me do it.  Take Cleveland.

Xmas Style – Back in my single days, I used to give whatever girl I was dating a “trip” for Xmas.  It would always be a place that I wanted to go so basically it was a trip for me and I wouldn’t have to go alone.  One year I gave my girlfriend a trip to Cleveland to go to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.  She was so thrilled to be going to Cleveland in January.  We did discover a great sports bar in Cleveland called Cooperstown, owned by Alice Cooper.  We had a great time there.  I just did a google search on it and I’m sad to see it closed 5 years ago.  Oh, things didn’t work out with that girlfriend either.

Houston at St. Louis ( +12.5 )

Houston is my Survivor Pool Pick of the Week so I am counting on you to win this road game.  Word tonight is that Steven Jackson has the flu.  This has a Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week feel to it.  Take Houston.

Xmas Style- I asked my 6 year old if he wanted to try some Egg Nog.  He said “no way”.  I later asked my 6 year old if he wanted to try some Christmas Milk.  He loved it. 

Cincinnati at San Diego ( -6.5 )

For the last 3 years I have taken Chris Henry as my last pick in my fantasy draft.  I reserve my last pick for a player that has the most potential but for some reason no one has taken.  I don’t think I ever started him but I always took him with that last pick because the potential was there.  Unfortunately, we’ll never know.  He was going to be a free agent this off season and someone would have given him a chance.  I am saddened at the thought of his 3 young children who lost a parent because of a situation that you wouldn’t expect your parents to be in.  I am not sure what emotional effect this has on the game but I do know that San Diego is the better team.  Take San Diego.

Xmas Style – I don’t care how many Chargers fans are wearing their Santa hats on Sunday, it just doesn’t feel like Christmas to see someone in shorts and a t shirt wearing a Santa hat.

Oakland at Denver ( -14 )

All signs are pointing to a potential playoff game of Denver and New England and I would love that.  I do like Denver in this game but you’ll need 3 scores to beat me because I am taking these points.  Take Oakland.

Xmas Style – I used to have friends that lived in Denver and I went out to visit them one year and was introduced to Fat Tire Amber Ale.  It was love at first sip and I am very happy to see that Fat Tire has made it out to the East Coast and I can now buy it at the grocery store here in Georgia.  Another Xmas miracle.

Tampa Bay at Seattle ( -6.5 )

Tampa Bay is battling for that first overall pick in next years draft.  They wouldn’t mess that up by winning here, would they?  Note to Seattle -  it’s Justin Forsett time.  How about 20 touches this weekend?  Take Seattle.

Xmas Style -  Another year for Xmas, I gave my girlfriend at the time a trip to Seattle.  We did some exploring and found ourselves on a ferry to Bainbridge Island.  If you ask me now what would be my ideal place to live, my answer is Bainbridge Island, Washington.  With the average home being around 7 figures, I don’t see the moving vans showing up anytime soon.

Minnesota at Carolina ( +9 )

Not too much on the line in this one but Brett Favre does like to show up when the national tv cameras are rolling.  Take Minnesota.

Xmas Style – What ever happened to Christmas carolers?  We used to get them all the time when I was growing up in Rhode Island.  Now the only thing to come knocking on my door are kids selling things from pizza kits to magazines.  Come to think of it, that was a pretty awkward 2 minutes standing there at the door in my underwear while people are singing Deck the Halls.

NY Giants at Washington ( -3 )

Here’s what I know about trying to pick NFC East games- I don’t know how to do it.  There’s no such thing as home field advantage and every game is a toss up.  In this one, I am just going to go with the team that needs it more and that’s the Giants.  Take NY Giants.

Xmas Style – If Santa is reading this, I need a new Patriots jersey to replace my Richard Seymour one.  Since I only wear defensive players jersey’s , a XXL Jerod Mayo jersey would be just  fine.

Good Luck in Week 15.

I don’t think I have looked forward to a weekend of NFL football games as much as I am this one in a few years. I made the Final Four of my fantasy league even though I put up average numbers in large part because my opponent had Larry Fitzgerald ( 2 points ! ). I am in the Final Four of the Survivor Pool that I am running on this site which is shocking because I disclose my pick on Wednesday nights for all to see. We also have 4 nights of football so we can spread out the drama. I’m pumped.

Let’s start with the Survivor Pool. If you are still alive, Congrats. We lost a few souls last week that took Pittsburgh to beat Oakland. Oakland has knocked more people out than any other team this season with their upsets over Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Be wary of those Raiders. This week the popular pick is Denver who is playing, you guessed it, Oakland. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Anything can happen this time of year. I have narrowed my choice to 3 teams:

Arizona: Arizona didn’t look right Monday night. Dropped passes, fumbles, etc. I still believe in Arizona and there is no better team to turn things around against than Detroit who gave up last week in Baltimore. Coming off a short week on the road is always a concern but Detroit is banged up enough to feel secure here.

Denver: Denver is at home as a 13 point favorite to Oakland. Oakland has had 10 days to prepare and get healthy for this one. Oakland still doesn’t know who their QB will be as of this writing and Denver looked like they did earlier in the season last week. Denver needs this one to stay in control of a wild card spot. They should get it done with a good running game.

Houston: Houston goes on the road as a 10 point favorite to St. Louis. Houston is playing well and St. Louis is banged up. You have to like Houston’s chances in this one.

Nationwide for people that are still alive and made their pick for the week already, 40.2% picked Denver. Houston is next with 19.5% and Arizona is at 15.4%. Philadelphia and Baltimore are getting some picks as well. Here’s my top 3 safest picks:

1. Arizona
2. Houston
3. Denver

My pick is Houston.  I would have liked to have chosen Arizona but I have already used them this season.  I understand the popular pick is Denver but I am not going up against Survivor Pool killing Oakland.  If Oakland’s secondary shuts down Brandon Marshall anything can happen and I am not going near that.  I’ll stick with Houston and the red hot Andre Johnson. 

Thursday Night Pick

Indianapolis at Jacksonville ( + 3 )

Before I get to my point spread pick, I am going to go out on a limb and call out the big boys of fantasy football such as ESPN.com, YAHOO.com, CBSSPORTS.com.  All of the major corporate web sites are getting this game wrong from a fantasy prospective in my opinion.  All 3 of these sites have Peyton Manning as a top 5 QB, Reggie Wayne as a top 10 WR, Joseph Addai as a top 10 RB and Dallas Clark as a top 5 TE.  Not going to happen.  I don’t see the Colts playing any of these guys more than a half tomorrow night.  All 3 of these sites have made mention that Indianapolis is going to treat this game as a normal game.  No way.  They aren’t stupid and they don’t care about the perfect record. 

It would actually be in the Colt’s best interest to lose this game.  If Indianapolis wins, it really hurts Jacksonville’s chances of making the playoffs but opens the door for the Jets, Steelers, Ravens among others.  Don’t you think they would rather have Jacksonville in the AFC playoff pool than the defensive teams such as the Jets, Steelers or Ravens.  The Colts will be playing on 3 days rest, they don’t need this game to stay sharp.  I based my Player Rankings above on the assumption that the Colts regulars play a half at the most. 

Watch for 2 things early on tomorrow night.  First, the Inactives Report comes out 90 minutes prior to game time.  There may be a surprise or two on there.  Second, if the Colts win the toss and take the ball as opposed to defer to the 2nd half, that means they are just wanting to get their offensive work in early and don’t care about the 2nd half.  If I end up being correct on calling out these big boy fantasy football sites then I fully expect to get a job offer in the off season to do Player Rankings for a major site.  I can be had pretty cheap.

The line on this game opened as the Colts favored by 6.5 and has dropped dramatically down to 3 which tells you that Vegas isn’t expecting a full effort out of the Colts.  Indianapolis plays 30 minutes, Jacksonville 60.  Take Jacksonville.

John Charles Last Week:  4-12

John Charles Thurs. Night :  0-1

John Charles Season:  102-88-3  ( 53.6% )

Readers Last Week:  4-12

Readers Thurs. Night: 0-1

Readers Season:  96-94-3  ( 50.5% )

 

I love the flight to Vegas.  Everyone on the plane is so excited.  Mapping out the gameplan none of which includes sleep.  Good times.  The plane ride back is a different story.  Not much excitement.  Mostly quiet except for the one guy talking too loud about how he lucked out on a slot machine.  200 people on the plane and 1 happy soul on the way back.

“There is a reason Vegas looks the way it does” is something a sportsbook employee told me one time several years ago. 

Last week was one of those weeks when I remembered that sportsbook employee’s words as nothing seemed to go right.  I finished the week 4-12 which was my worst week of the season.  Sometimes it doesn’t go your way and other times it does.  You gotta play to win and let’s see if we can get back on track this week.

Let’s do this.

Denver at Indianapolis ( -7 )

The two things I got right last week features both these teams.  I correctly predicted that Denver would make a statement game and win and that Indianapolis would knock Tennessee back to earth.  This has the makings of a great game.  Denver will look to run and Indianapolis will look to air it out.  Indianapolis might be playing their last meaningful game until 2010 and Denver still has eyes on winning their division.  This game means more for Denver but it’s hard to go against a team that hasn’t lost all year and is pushing just a touchdown.  I am sticking with Indianapolis until they have nothing to play for.  Take Indianapolis.

Cincinnati at Minnesota ( -6.5 )

Hard to believe that these two teams have only 5 losses combined between them this season.  Hard to believe that Cincinnati could very well be a # 2 seed in the AFC when all is said and done.  It’s all hard for me to believe because I still refer to them as the Bungles in my head.  The Bengals play at Minnesota this week and at San Diego next week.  Two tough road games.  So why did the Bengals rush Cedric Benson 36 times last week in his first game back from an injury against Detroit?  That makes no sense to me especially when you have Larry Johnson as a backup.  That could come back to haunt them.  Minnesota hasn’t lost all year at home and that continues here with a late cover.  Take Minnesota.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay ( + 3 )

The Jets get the Lucky Schedule of the Year Award.  They get both Indianapolis and Cincinnati  which is tough but they get them in Week 16 and 17 when both will be resting their starters.  The Jets will win their last 4 to get to 10-6 and are playoff bound.  I am not just saying that because I get more hits to this web site from New York than any other state.  This week they get a very winnable game against Tampa Bay which looked terrible last week against Carolina.  Jets will run 40+ times and cover the 3.  Take NY Jets.

Buffalo at Kansas City ( Pick Em )

Kansas City has lost their last 2 games by a total of 60 points.  Buffalo has actually played teams tough the past few weeks.  Kansas City is starting to question whether it was smart to hand over the franchise to Matt Cassel.  Not much to like about Kansas City’s chances in this one except for the fact that they are at home and that’s the difference in this game.  Take Kansas City.

Green Bay at Chicago ( +3 )

Green Bay are winners of 4 in a row and they have moved into that last wild card spot in the NFC.  They could win their last 4 to go to 12-4 and finish no higher than the #5 seed.  They could also lose 1 game the rest of the way and not get in.  This game means much more to Green Bay than it does Chicago.  I still think Green Bay needs to run more but they should get the job done here.  Another huge game from Aaron Rodgers and I like them so much I am calling this my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week.  Take Green Bay.

New Orleans at Atlanta ( +10 )

Atlanta is a double digit home underdog.  A loss here and the Falcons are pretty much done in the playoff picture.  Atlanta has a 6-6 record but have lost 5 of their last 7 games.  Last week they looked terrible at home against Philadelphia.  I think the injuries are just too much for Atlanta to hang in this game.  They did play New Orleans tough last month but it won’t be that close this time.  New Orleans is lights out in a dome.  Take New Orleans.

Detroit at Baltimore ( -13.5 )

Baltimore needs this game bad as they are waiting for Jacksonville to slip up so they can slide into that # 6 spot and would love to get Cincinnati in the first round.  That’s a long ways away but it starts at home this weekend against Detroit.  Detroit has lost every road game this year with the closest margin being 8 points.  Look for Ray Rice to run wild and Baltimore with a late cover.  Take Baltimore.

Miami at Jacksonville ( -3 )

This game is huge for both teams.  Vegas has slapped the 3 point home favorite tag on this one which we have learned is the hardest to handicap.  I read 6 different handicapping reports today and they are spilt 3-3 on this game.  The popular opinion poll is virtually 50-50.  I like Jacksonville since the preseason when they were a sleeper playoff pick of mine but I also like the fact that the Dolphins have abandoned their Wildcat offense which was holding them back.  When teams are virtually even as these teams are I usually take the points.  Injury report tonight has Mike Sims-Walker as questionable.  That could be the difference.  I’m torn.  For some reason I think Maurice Jones-Drew has a big day and for that reason alone I am going with the home team.  Take Jacksonville.

Carolina at New England ( -13 )

Not a good week for New England.  They started the week off with another 2nd half collapse that resulted in their worst loss in years.  Then Tom Brady called out his teammates while his wife was giving birth.  Then there was a winter storm that made some players 10 minutes late which sent Belichick into a frenzy and sent them home.  Then the Patriots listed Tom Brady as questionable with every injury known to man.  But the most bizarre?  Tonight the news that the Patriots mascot was arrested for a prostitution related crime.  The good news for New England?  Sunday marks a new week and things have a tendency to change on a dime.  Take New England.

Seattle at Houston ( -6.5 )

Houston’s playoff chances were pretty much ended with last weeks loss.  I was really looking forward to them getting in the playoffs so I could bet against them.  Not sure what their focus will be in this game but I have no trust in Seattle on the road.  Take Houston.

St. Louis at Tennessee ( -13 )

Tennessee is the most popular Survivor Pool pick of the week and I am taking them this week.  With that being said, I’m nervous about this game especially after watching Cleveland upset Pittsburgh last night.  Vince Young says he is going to play but I am not sure if he can finish.  Steven Jackson is a game time decision for the Rams.  Tennessee might not be as motivated after last weeks loss.  I don’t see how the Rams have an answer to stop Chris Johnson who is going to make a lot of fantasy owners happy this week.  Take Tennessee.

Washington at Oakland ( +1 )

Washington almost won last week against New Orleans but we know that “almost” only counts for teenage boys talking about their conquests and horseshoes.  Oakland beat Pittsburgh on the road.  Impressive that these two teams are playing just as hard as anyone at this point in the season.  Washington hasn’t won on the road all year and I don’t see them travelling 3,000 miles to do it here.  Take Oakland.

San Diego at Dallas ( -3 )

San Diego is very quietly on a 7 game winning streak and might be my pick in the AFC right now.  Dallas has a lot to play for in this game and they are at home.  I think this is a very even match up.  Hard to look past the way San Diego has been playing and I love them in games where weather isn’t a factor.  If you want to give me 3 points to take the Chargers, I’ll take it and call this my Upset Pick of the Week.  Take San Diego.

Philadelphia at NY Giants ( -1 )

Another huge game where the winner will be looking good for the playoffs and the loser not so much.  Philadelphia has the momentum and I think they pull off the slight upset.  Take Philadelphia.

Arizona at San Francisco ( +3.5 )

Arizona has actually played better on the road this season going 5-1.  They could lock up their division with a win here and I think they get it done.  Watch out NFC, Arizona is peaking at the right time again this year.  Take Arizona.

Good Luck in Week 14.

John Charles Last Week:  10-5-1

John Charles Thurs. Night:  0-1

John Charles Season:  98-76-3  ( 56.3% )

Readers Last Week:  8-7-1

Readers Thurs. Night:  1-0

Readers Season:  93-81-3  ( 53.4% )

 

Week 13 marks the beginning of the last quarter of the regular season.  My favorite time of the year for picking games.  Not only do we have to consider all the X’s and O’s of a given match up, we also have to become amateur psychologists.  We have to determine such things as whether a team will “show up”, whether a team has “given up”, whether a team has “phoned it in” and whether or not a team “wants it more”. 

You would like to think that a professional athlete on a sports team would give a full 100% and want to win every week.  That’s just not the case.  This weekend I guarantee you will hear analysts talk about how it might be good for New Orleans or Indianapolis to lose a game.  Why I ask?  Why can’t a team try to win every time they take the field?  But that’s reality when a game is played by humans.  They seem to give different levels of effort especially this time of year. 

Back in my playing days, my coaches encouraged me to give 100% on every play but these days that’s just not good enough.  In post game interviews I frequently hear players comment about how they gave 110%, I recall one who claimed to give 125%, another 200% and one a whopping 1,000%.  Not all players are on a numerical system.  Another player mentioned that his team brought their “A-game” after a victory.

The reason why I like this time of year is that usually the team that needs it more gets it more.  That’s important to keep in mind as we pick this weekend’s games.  I’m ready to give it 100%.  I just hope that’s enough and I bring my A-game. 

Let’s do this.

Denver at Kansas City ( +4.5 )

The first of seven road favorites Sunday.  Vegas isn’t going to make this easy for us.  Denver definitely needs this game more and they will have had 10 days to get ready for it.  A loss here would make about 6 teams in the AFC wild card race very happy.  This is a statement game for Denver and they should get it done with a big day from Knowshon Moreno.  Take Denver.

Oakland at Pittsburgh ( +14.5 )

This line has slowly crept up and now it’s 3 scores for Pittsburgh to cover.  Pittsburgh definitely needs this game more as they are currently on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  The Steelers have lost 3 straight and have not beaten a team by more than 14 points all year.  All signs point to take the points in this but I can’t get over the last time the Raiders travelled this far east and lost 44-7 to the Giants.  I expect a similar score here.  Take Pittsburgh.

Houston at Jacksonville ( Pick Em )

Another big game for both teams as they try to slip into the playoffs with that last wild card spot.  Jacksonville still has that last wild card spot despite their loss last week but they have 5 teams breathing down their neck including Houston.  This game has the makings of a shoot out and even though Jacksonville has played very well at home going 4-1, they are the only team in the NFL with a winning record that has been outscored on for the season.  In other words, they can’t stop anybody and Houston can score with the best of them.  Take Houston.

Tennessee at Indianapolis ( -6.5 )

Let me start by saying that Tennessee has been a great story and I love the underdog.  However, they wouldn’t have won last week if Kurt Warner had played against them ( angry emails can be sent at the tab on the top of the page ).  Tennessee definitely needs it more and it’s tempting to think they will keep it close but I’ll take my chances with Peyton Manning at home pushing less than a touchdown.  Take Indianapolis.

Philadelphia at Atlanta ( +5.5 )

As someone who currently lives in Atlanta, I can tell you that the entire metro area is in a state of panic right now.  Is it because the Falcons just lost Matt Ryan and they desperately need this game?  No.  Is it because Michael Turner might not play and the Falcons desperately need this game?  No.  Is it the return of Michael Vick to Atlanta?  No.  Well what is it?  There’s flurries in the forecast for this weekend.  Speaking of football, there are 3 teams in the NFC that are undefeated at home.  New Orleans and Minnesota are two obvious picks.  Atlanta is the third.  Let’s call this the Upset Pick of the Week.  Take Atlanta.

Detroit at Cincinnati ( -13 )

My best friend of 15 years is a Detroit Lions fan.  He hasn’t been the same since Barry Sanders retired.  I, on the other hand am a New England Patriots fan so we don’t have a lot of common experiences.  Two weeks ago he sent me a 300 word email about how Brandon Pettigrew is a tight end you can build a franchise around.  Last week Pettigrew blew out his knee.  I give him credit as he sits there and watches every second of each of their games.  This week he is going to be very familiar with Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson.  I like Cincinnati so much in this one I am calling it my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week.  Take Cincinnati.

New Orleans at Washington ( +9.5 )

Washington is a tough team to figure out from a point spread prospective.  They play good teams tough.  There are some reasons to like Washington with the points in this.  They are at home and it’s supposed to be a cold windy day.  Despite a 3-8 record, they haven’t been blown out all year.  Their biggest loss was by 14.  They are facing the Saints on a short week and it’s a change of surface game for them.  I really want to take Washington in this but I can’t get the images of Monday night out of my head when I saw what I think is a Super Bowl team.  Take New Orleans.

Tampa Bay at Carolina ( -6 )

The Matt Moore era begins in Carolina.  Tampa Bay hasn’t played bad in the past month.  I’m not saying they are going to win the game but I’ll take the points against a back up quarterback.  Take Tampa Bay.

St. Louis at Chicago ( -9 )

In looking at both these teams and trying to decide who needs it more, I decided that I need it more.  I am still alive in my Survivor Pool and my best option this week is Chicago.  That’s right, I am taking Chicago who are losers of 6 of their last 7 with my Survivor season on the line.  Call me crazy for that and even more crazy to push 9.  Take Chicago.

San Diego at Cleveland ( +13 )

What team in the AFC has scored the most points this season?  Sorry Indianapolis, it’s San Diego.  What team in the AFC has given up the most points?  Sorry Cleveland, it’s Kansas City but you’re close.  This game shouldn’t be.  Can Vincent Jackson please wake up?  My fantasy team desperately needs you.  Take San Diego.

San Francisco at Seattle ( Pick Em )

We get two Pick Em games this week !  With Pick Em games we try to go with the team that needs it more.  San Francisco wins here and they are still in the race, a loss and they are done.  Take San Francisco.

New England at Miami ( +4 )

Not sure who needs this game more as it’s big for both teams.  The line opened with the Patriots as 5.5 point favorites but has since dropped down to 4.  That means significant money is coming in on the Dolphins.  An interesting game because New England, despite a 7-4 record, has not won a road game in the United States this season.  The Patriots won against the Dolphins at home by 10 a month ago.  I expect a similar margin here.  Take New England.

Dallas at NY Giants ( +2.5 )

I read a column today that is taking Dallas because they have had 10 days to prepare.  Not all Cowboys.  I saw that Tony Romo spent last weekend  in Vegas.  Avoiding people on the Strip handing out the stripper cards is not the same as trying to avoid the Giants pass rush.  Giants are at home, weather could be a factor, they need it more and they’re getting points.  Take NY Giants.

Minnesota at Arizona ( +3.5 )

A hard part about doing a column like this is having to make your picks sometimes not knowing who is playing or the weather conditions.  If Kurt Warner plays in this game, I do like Arizona’s chances more than if he doesn’t.  Either way I am going to watch this game on mute ( anti- Favre ).  Take Minnesota.

Baltimore at Green Bay ( -3 )

Is it just me or is the Ray Lewis pregame dance/speech getting old?  A big game for both teams.  I would view both of these teams as pretty much even with slight advantages to both in different categories.  I look for Green Bay to abandon the run and take their chances airing it out.  I think Aaron Rodgers will connect and Green Bay to score 1 more touchdown than the Ravens.  Take Green Bay.

Good Luck in Week 13 and make sure you give it 100%.

You can make your picks and see what the rest of our reader’s think by participating in our point spread picks poll by clicking here.

John Charles

John Charles Last Week: 8-8
John Charles Thanksgiving Games: 3-0
John Charles Season: 91-70-2 ( 56.5% )

Readers Last Week: 8-8
Readers Thanksgiving Games: 1-2
Readers Season: 85-76-2 ( 52.7% )

With so many football fans travelling this week, I thought I would mention a hidden gem in the NFL television world. If you have Directv’s NFL Ticket, you are allowed to download the Supercast from Directv to your computer. That allows you to watch all the games, including the Red Zone channel, on your computer. Maybe I am late to this as I just discovered it a few weeks ago when faced with being on the road in a hotel on a Sunday. What I discovered was that I could bounce around from game to game because they show you where the ball is with each game.

I mentioned it to a few friends and some didn’t know they had the ability to do that. One said he gave his login information to his father who didn’t have Directv and he was able to watch all the games from their computer. One even mentioned being on a plane that had wi fi and watching all the games. Now my whole Sunday viewing has been changed. I have my game or the Red Zone Channel on my big screen and the Supercast on my laptop and it surely beats those days when I had to find a sports bar and hope they would put the games on that I wanted to watch.

Now on to the picks.

Everything went according to plan on Thanksgiving. I finished the day 3-0 so we have some Swagger going into Sunday. It also gets me back to over 20 games over .500 which is a nice place to be. It’s important to take it one game at a time, stay within ourselves and to give it at least 110%.

Let’s do this.

Indianapolis at Houston ( +3 )

I am starting to think that Indianapolis might be underrated. They’re 10-0 and many “experts” that I read called for them to lose to New England. A few more called for them to then lose last week at Baltimore. Now, for the third week in a row, those same “experts” are calling for them to lose to Houston. I don’t think any team is going to go undefeated this season so that means they will lose eventually but I don’t see that this week. Peyton Manning is putting together a MVP season and until he lets me down I am going to back him. I’ll push the field goal in what is going to be a very high scoring game. Take Indianapolis.

Cleveland at Cincinnati ( -14 )

I’m not a big fan of pushing double digit point spreads in division contests. But I am also not a fan of anything that Cleveland is doing. They did show some offensive spark last week but it was against Detroit so it’s tough to say how that will play against Cincinnati. I would stay away from this game if you can, but if you must, and I must, I am taking the better team playing at home. Take Cincinnati.

Chicago at Minnesota ( -11 )

Minnesota’s job is to win this game Sunday and then root all out for New England to beat New Orleans Monday night. They want a number 1 seed and might end up getting it. Another double digit spread in a division contest and I hate to do it again but I am pushing the points. Take Minnesota.

Washington at Philadelphia ( -9 )

The Rock Cartwright era has begun in Washington. Both teams will struggle running the ball which means this should come down to passing and special teams. Both of those areas favor the Eagles big. Take Philadelphia.

Miami at Buffalo ( -3 )

These two teams played 2 months ago in a game Miami won big. So what’s so different this time? Miami lost Ronnie Brown and Terrell Owens is starting to show up again. Although I think the margin of victory will be a lot less this time, I am going with the team that has more to play for. Take Miami.

Arizona at Tennessee ( -3 )

Tennessee has won 4 in a row since Vince Young took over after starting 0-6. Tennessee is currently 12th in the AFC playoff hunt but it is possible that if they win this game, they could end the weekend as high as 8th. They have confidence and it’s an amazing story. However, Arizona is no slouch and they have won 3 in a row and are a perfect 5-0 on the road this season. Kurt Warner is the key here. As of this writing it appears he will play and if he does, Tennessee’s amazing comeback story ends. This is not a good match up for the Titans as they have a hard time defending the deep pass which is Arizona’s specialty. Arizona wins this game outright in an Upset that is not really an Upset Pick. Take Arizona.

Seattle at St. Louis ( + 3 )

Something has to give in this game. Seattle is 0-5 on the road and St. Louis is 0-5 at home. St. Louis has played well the past few weeks but that was with Marc Bulger. He’s out and it’s Kyle Boller time. Seattle was a sleeper team for me in the preseason and I can’t believe they have a record this poor. Seattle beat St. Louis back in Week 1 28-0. I am going with the team that I think is better. Take Seattle.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta ( -12.5 )

This is the most confusing line of the week. I would think Atlanta would be a 6-8 point favorite but 12.5? Atlanta has only beaten Washington in the last 5 weeks. Granted they play much better at home and this is a home game. I live in Atlanta and I can tell you that the people of Atlanta don’t trust this team. This line is so confusing to me that I am going to take the points. Take Tampa Bay.

Carolina at NY Jets ( – 3 )

Both teams enter the contest 4-6 and on life support in regards to their playoff chances. Vegas has slapped the 3 point home favorite spread on this game so they view each of these teams as equal. It’s going to be a battle of running backs and I’ll take DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart over Thomas Jones any day of the week. If you want to give me 3 points, I’ll take them and call this my Upset Pick of the Week. Take Carolina.

Jacksonville at San Francisco ( -3 )

Another 3 point home favorite line. If the season ended today, Jacksonville would be in the playoffs. Seriously. They are ahead of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston right now. San Francisco is 4-6 but they have played some good teams tough so they are much better than their record. A tough game to call. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won. With all that said, I’ll take the points. Take Jacksonville.

San Diego at Kansas City ( + 13.5 )

These two teams played just 4 weeks ago and San Diego won that game by 30. Not much has changed in the past month so you would have to assume a similar outcome. Maybe not 30 but I’ll take half of that. This is my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week. Take San Diego.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore ( -2.5 )

Both teams are in a battle for a playoff spot and the loser of this game is really on the outside looking in. As Paris Hilton would say, this game is huuuuuuge. There’s a Steeler bar not far from where the Ravens play called the Purple Goose Saloon. I used to go there occasionally when I lived in Baltimore. The bar would open at 11am on Sundays but the parking lot would be full by 9am with tailgaters. I love Steeler fans. I went to a wedding once in Pittsburgh and people were tailgating the church parking lot before the ceremony. Truly the best fan base in pro football. I’m afraid it’s going to be a long day of drinking and a tough Monday morning for SteelerNation this weekend. Many  injuries on both sides of the ball is too much to overcome going into Baltimore. Take Baltimore.

New England at New Orleans ( -2.5 )

I just want to make sure I have the correct hype for this game. I know it’s the Game of the Week but some have been calling it the Game of the Year which I thought was two weeks ago for the Patriots-Colts game. In New Orleans some are calling it the Game of the Decade which would also make it the Game of the Century so far because we are in the first decade of a new century. My head is spinning. I’ll tell you who else’s  head will be spinning and that’s the New England secondary in this game. It used to be said that the greatest thing about New England was that they play 60 minutes of football. Not this year. They play 30 great minutes and 30 average minutes. In the 1st half of games this year, the Patriots have scored 196 points and in the 2nd half just 94. All 3 of their losses this year they led at the half. Half time adjustments? The Patriots will need to play 60 minutes Monday to win and they haven’t shown that against a good team all year. Not only that but Laurence Maroney has fumbled in two straight games and that’s a concern. Might be the Game of the Decade for the Saints but it appears to be another ho-hum game for the Patriots. Take New Orleans.

Analyst Disclosure: John Charles is a New England Patriots fan.

John Charles