Fantasy-Football-First

Archive for the ‘Point Spread Columns’ Category

This week an old friend of mine from college “friended” me on FaceBook. I haven’t seen or heard from the guy in over 15 years. We weren’t the best of friends but we did live on the same floor for a year and were in the same group that would go out on the weekends. When I got the friend request, I did what most probably do and that’s go right to the pictures. How much weight has he gained and how much hair has he lost are the first things I checked out. Scrolling through his pictures I see him standing there with his wife and kids around the Christmas tree. Now he’s on a beach. There he is at the Thanksgiving table pretending the whole turkey is his plate. There he is rolling around on the lawn with his kids. A real family man it seems.

That album of pictures on his FaceBook page is a lot different than the mental album of pictures that I had of him in my brain. Those mental pictures include such events as him passed out on my dorm room couch. There he is upside down doing a keg stand. There he goes stealing another beer out of my fridge. Here’s a lovely shot of him getting sick behind a tree walking home one night. Good times.

I am not sure all this FaceBook stuff is good for us as a society. Do I really need to know that an old co-worker of mine is “sitting down to watch the Biggest Loser with a bowl of ice cream. LOL”? Do I really need to know that someone is “getting on an airplane” followed by 10 comments of “have a safe flight” and another 20 thumbs up? Maybe. But I definitely don’t need to know that someone I havent’ seen in 10 years just reached Level 12 of Farmville, whatever that means.

I guess people think it’s fun to stay connected with every classmate and co-worker they ever had. I’m just here for the pictures.

Now let’s talk football.

It’s Week 19, eight teams are left and we have four tough games to pick this week. Last week Arizona, Baltimore, Dallas and the NY Jets all looked very impressive. Those images are fresh in our mind. Vegas knows that. Don’t fall in the trap. We have 4 teams fresh off an impressive win against 4 teams that haven’t played a meaningful game in 3-5 weeks. I am noticing a lot of people taking the points with the underdog this week but don’t under estimate the fact that the reason why these teams haven’t played a meaningful game in so long is because of how good they were during the season. Yes, there have been occasions recently when a wild card team gets hot and makes a Super Bowl run but overall the team with the better record wins in this round of the playoffs.

Let’s do this.

John Charles

Playoffs: 2-2

Regular Season: 133-118-5

Total:  135-120-5

Readers

Playoffs:  2-2

Regular Season:  130-121-5

Total:  132-123-5

Arizona at New Orleans ( -7 )

Arizona can score. Fast. I used the bathroom during the 4th quarter of the Arizona/Green Bay game last week and I think they scored twice during that time. How that game ended makes you think that maybe destiny is on their side this year. You can’t underestimate the luck factor. New Orleans seemed to wear down defensively as the season went on. They were on top of the world after that Monday night game against New England but didn’t wow me after that. I think the Kurt Warner Show gets high ratings in this one. Take Arizona.

Baltimore at Indianapolis ( -6.5 )

I firmly believe how Indianapolis finished the season will come back to haunt them. I’m just not sure if it’s this weekend or next. Major props to how Baltimore destroyed New England last week but Indianapolis is a much better team. Ray Rice will run to slow the game down and it will be close. However, I think Peyton Manning will stick with Dallas Clark and a 4 wide receiver set and pick the Ravens apart for a 7-10 point win. Take Indianapolis.

Dallas at Minnesota ( -3 )

Classic second round game. One team that looked great in the Wild Card round against a team on a bye. Vegas throws up the flag with a 3 point home favorite line which is their version of a toss up. I am thinking it’s going to be a lot of turnovers in the passing game and a second half dominated by the run. Adrian Peterson statement game. Take Minnesota.

NY Jets at San Diego ( -7 )

Great to see the Jets handing the ball off to Shonn Greene late in the season. I had been calling for that all year. You will hear him as the “sleeper” of next years fantasy drafts. I think this is going to be a predictable game. Jets will try to hand the ball off 40 times. Jets will shut down Vincent Jackson. Jets have no answer for Antonio Gates and a surprise performance from Darren Sproles. Jets lose by 10 but the future looks bright. Take San Diego.

Scroll down below and pick your winners.

Side Note: I blew last week’s Survivor Picks after going 17-0 during the regular season. If you were lucky enough to avoid my advice last week and you are still alive, I like San Diego as the top pick of the week and Indianapolis as a distant second.

There is a reason why Las Vegas looks the way it does.  It makes money.  Many a dollar and a dream were let go by someone who thought they had come up with a “system” to win at sports gambling.  I was first introduced to a football system by my late grandfather at the appropriate age of 12.  He told me to always take a team going up against a change of surface team.  In other words, bet against a turf team playing on grass and vice versa.  Seemed logical and I took that knowledge with me and remember it to this day.  25 years later I can see the flaw in that logic which is that it’s already factored into the point spread.  Las Vegas is that smart.  Of course, that system wouldn’t work today as everyone plays on some sort of fiber whether they are indoors or not but we do hear variations of that system these days.  We hear about teams crossing time zones or dome teams not being able to play when the temperature drops below a certain amount.  I was never a big fan of those types of things as I believe that if you are betting those trends then Las Vegas has you right where they want you which is pushing more points than you should be.  In the NFL, parity is a fact and you need to bet with an analysis of the teams and little weight to trends.  Teams play on emotions and I love the teams that were recently embarrassed or have their backs against the wall.  There is no system to identify that, just an instinct .  Here at Fantasy-Football-First, our weekly point spread picks will come out each Saturday.  I’ll analyze the match up and study the line.  I’ll consult with other web sites including the pay for pick sites.  But the bottom line is that I’ll make a pick going on mostly my instinct which should beat any “system” out there.