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Here we go.

This is the weekend.  The weekend before Labor Day is the most popular time to hold fantasy football drafts.  I have been bunkered down working on my own draft and trying to figure out if the 18th or 20th round is the right time to select the likes of a Samkon Gado.  No better time than now to rerun last month’s Draft Days Do’s and Dont’s column.  Enjoy. 

It’s that time of year when all the fantasy football websites roll out their “Do’s and Don’ts” columns for draft strategy.  You know the ones where they tell you to not  draft a kicker before the last round, bring a cheat sheet, and don’t draft two quarterbacks with the same bye week.

Gee, thanks.

Here at Fantasy-Football-First, we put the “ First”  in our name because that’s where we want you to finish this year.  No excuses.  This is going to be your year if you stick with us.  No one goes undefeated in fantasy football so we know there will be ups and downs.  We know there will be that one week we will lose on a meaningless touchdown at the end of the Monday night game.  We know there will be that one week we start someone in the 4pm game who doesn’t play.  We know we will go up against a team that starts their 4th string wide receiver who goes for 3 td’s.  Those are all heartbreaks that we will have to deal with.  On the other hand, we know we are going to win our league and that’s more than going to make up for all those bumps in the road.

We do this for fun and the fun starts on Draft Day.

I love live drafts.  Sometimes I do participate in an online draft but there’s always something missing.  It’s kind of like poker.  Yes, you can be good at online poker but you never know how good you really are until you play face to face.  The following is a list of Do’s and Don’ts for live drafts based on my 15 years of experience. 

DO – know your league rules.

Sounds simple but you need to know what your league rules are especially regarding roster size, waiver wire pickups and injured players.  You would be surprised how many people I see asking these questions after the draft.

DO- try to get your league to do the draft order a day or two before the draft.

If you have a top 3 pick or a bottom 3 pick or one in the middle is something that would be nice to know before the draft.  Pulling out numbers 5 minutes before the draft does nobody any favors.

DO – get there early.

I’m not exactly sure why getting there early is important.  All I know is the drafts I got there late or was rushing ended up going badly. 

DON’T – Drink.

I know.  It’s a party.  Everyone is going to be drinking.  Every draft I consumed beers at I ended up with Benjamin Watson as my tight end.  Every year I didn’t, it was Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez.  You get the point.

DO – encourage others to drink responsibly.

DO – encourage your league to increase the roster limits.

Some leagues draft 12 players, some 14, some even 20.  Lobby for more players.  Since I know I am going to be more prepared than the other owners, I want to be able to draft more players at the end of the draft when you can still find good players.  The less players on the rosters, the more in the waiver wire pool where they will end up on the worse teams first.

DON’T – tank the first week to get the best waiver claims.

I actually know someone who does this every year.  Makes no sense. Play to win.

DO – find out who your owners root for and praise that teams players you don’t want.

If you know you have a bunch of Redskin fans in your league, talk up how good you think Larry Johnson will be this year and watch him fly off the board in the 2nd  round. 

DO – find out who you can email trade offers to  at work.

Nothing worse than making trade offers to the guy who never checks his email.

DON’T - draft with your heart.

If you are a Dallas fan and your team has Tony Romo, Miles Austin and Felix Jones then you didn’t do your homework.

DO – make sure your running back cheat sheet goes 50 deep.

You don’t want to be that guy flipping through the magazine with a few rounds to go. 

And finally, don’t forget to bring a cheat sheet, draft your kicker in the last round and don’t take two quarterbacks with the same bye week.

My name is John Charles and for three fantasy football seasons I was an idiot when it came to Auction Drafts.

It was 6 years ago and my fantasy football league made the switch from a normal draft to a full blown auction. The next three seasons I suffered through my worst 3 years of fantasy football and I have no one to blame but myself. It got so bad in Auction Drafts for me that I almost quit and vowed to never participate in them again. I didn’t need the stress but I stuck it out, made a few changes and ever since I do pretty well  in several cash leagues. I learned from my mistakes and as a reader of this column you can too without ever having to make them in the first place like I did.

Before we get into my previous mistakes and tips to do well in Auction Drafts, let’s talk about what an Auction Draft is.

Auction Drafts, also known as Salary Cap leagues, operate under the premise that any player could be selected by any team based on the highest bid. For example, in standard drafts Chris Johnson will most likely be selected by the owner who has the first pick of the draft. In auction drafts, Chris Johnson gets brought up to bid and will be selected by the highest bidder. Most auction drafts will have a team budget of $100 or $200 to fill out your roster. The minimum price for any player is $1 so on a 15 player roster with a $200 dollar salary cap the maximum bid any owner has to start the auction is $186 dollars for one player because that owner would need to fill out the remaining 14 players with a total of $14. Now that we understand what an Auction Draft is, let’s examine the 3 mistakes that I not only committed myself in years past but I see others commit every year.

Mistake #1

The Blow Out the Budget to get the Best 2 RB’s Mistake

This owner will land two of the best running backs very early into the auction and then have to sit there while nearly a hundred other players get selected before he can fill out the rest of the roster with below average performers. Sure we would all love to have Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson on our teams but this theory never works. The owner that does this will have some good weeks and maybe even contend for a playoff spot but other weeks they will get blown out and most likely finish in the middle of your league.

Mistake #2

The Let Others Spend their Money on RB’s, I’ll Save my Money for QB’s and WR’s Mistake

This owner will sit there nervously in the beginning of the auction shaking his head as the RB’s get bought at high prices. He will get shut out of the top RB’s and be left with some cash left at the end of the auction (money left on the table at the end of the auction means something went wrong). He’ll end up with a top QB and WR but will struggle all season with his RB’s. This owner will need a lot of luck to compete for the league championship.

Mistake #3

I’ll Trust my Salary Cap Cheat Sheet to Set my Price Points from good ol ESPN.COM

This is the most common and biggest mistake fantasy football owners make regarding Auction Drafts. All the major corporate web sites and magazines feature auction drafts salary cheat sheets. Right now on ESPN.COM they have the price points for Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson at $60. I can tell you that in my league both of those players will go for over $80. ESPN.COM has Andre Johnson at $43 and Aaron Rodgers for $41. I know from experience that neither of those players will go for more than $25 in my league. If I show up with the corporate cheat sheet to determine my price points, I am going to end up getting flustered with the outrageous running back prices early on and fall into the Mistake #2 trap.

Those were the 3 mistakes I made in my first three years of Auction Drafts. So what is one to do?

Here are some basic strategy tips:

• Create your own Player Ranking Cheat Sheets

Forget about showing up with the magazine cheat sheet or the corporate web site cheat sheets.  Those are for the lazy owners and the one’s you are going to beat this year.  Do your homework.  Read as many sites as you can.  Bookmark 5-10 sites (hopefully you can put me in that list) for your daily or weekly reading.  Get out your notebook or excel spreadsheet and come up with your own rankings.  That’s how I do it. I just happen to publish mine on this site.  When you show up to the draft, you have your player rankings that you developed by utilizing the web sites as consultants.  Do not put any price targets on your cheat sheet. 

• Stick to the Plan

If you are a loyal reader of this site, you know the game plan.  If you are new then here it is in a nutshell.  We are going to build our team by selecting a top 10 RB, a top 5 QB, a top 10 WR and a top 5 TE.  After that we are just going to accumulate RB and WR depth.  This is actually easier to accomplish in an auction than it is in a standard draft.  We are going to build a team based on depth and getting the best value at each of the positions.  We don’t need the top performers at each position, we just need consistent depth at each position.

• Pass on the Top Players Projected at QB, RB and WR

I’m sorry auction owners but no Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson or Andre Johnson for you this year.  There will not be any value in those picks from an auction standpoint.  I am sure all 3 of those players will have a good year but the actual chances of them being the top performer at their position and therefore worthy of this highest auction salary is slim.  Let the other owners get into the bidding war for those players and set the market for those positions while we sit back content with a similar player at a much lower salary.

• Never Bring Up a Player that you Actually Want

Remember this isn’t a draft, it’s an auction so don’t tip your hand on someone that you want on your roster.  Bring up a player to bid that you know will go for a high salary that you don’t want.  You want the other owners to start spending their money earlier than you do.  There is going to be that one guy at the draft that will raise every one’s bid just as there is that one guy at the poker table that will raise and re-raise the pot.  This is a version of poker.  Even though I want no part of Frank Gore, I am going to bid him up like I do and then fold at the end.  Occasionally this can back fire on you and you might get stuck with the player but more often than not it works.  If you are in a 3 way bidding war for a player, back out and let the other two take that price up.

• Make a List of Players that you Don’t Want and Bring those Players Up for Bid

There’s a whole list of players that I don’t want this year.  Some for injury concerns, some because I know they are over rated.  Some of these players are Brett Favre, Wes Welker, Shonn Greene, Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Sidney Rice.  These are the players that I am going to bring up for bid for a $1.  I am not going to get them and that’s less money I have to compete with down the road.

• Never Pay More than $2 for a Kicker, Defense, Back Up TE, Back Up QB

Save these positions for the end of the auction when every one’s max bid is around a $1.  Don’t waste salary cap space for these positions on your team.

OK, so now that we have a game plan, let’s look at the cheat sheet from ESPN.COM ($200 cap) position by position and see what a good plan of attack should be.

Quarterback

STICK TO THE PLAN:  Our plan is to get a top 5 QB as our QB1 and spend no more than a dollar for our back up.

ESPN.COM:  The top 5 QB’s on their cheat sheet are Drew Brees at $43, Aaron Rodgers at $38, Peyton Manning at $27, Tom Brady at $26 and Matt Schaub at $17.

 TARGET STRATEGY:  We are going to watch and see how the bidding goes for Brees and Rodgers and might even participate in the bidding for those 2.  However, we will probably back out and be content with a Manning, Brady or even a Schaub at a lower price knowing that we will get virtually the same production.  For our back up, we would be looking at a Carson Palmer or a Matthew Stafford.

BEST CASE:  We get Peyton Manning for $27 and Carson Palmer for $1. 

CAP HIT: $28

Running Backs

STICK TO THE PLAN:  Our plan is to get a top 10 RB knowing we are going to have to spend money for it.  Our second RB will not be someone in the top 10 but will be chosen each week based on match ups from a group of 3-4 other running backs on our roster. 

ESPN.COM:  Their top 10 RB’s are Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson at $60, Maurice Jones-Drew at $56, Ray Rice at $53, Steven Jackson at $52, Frank Gore at $48, Michael Turner at $43, DeAngelo Williams at $40, Ryan Grant at $37 and Cedric Benson at $35.

TARGET STRATEGY:  Although we would be open to any of these players being on our team for the right price, we will let the rest of the league determine the market value for running backs with the salary for Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson.  We will target a Michael Turner or a Ryan Grant for roughly 2/3′s the salary of Chris Johnson.  I would much rather take a Michael Turner at $43 than a Chris Johnson at $60.  That extra $17 will come in handy later on, trust me.  For the rest of  our running backs, we will stay out of the bidding for the rest of the top 10 and select 3 other one’s at modest salaries from the money we saved by not grabbing an elite RB.  Some nice targets from the ESPN.COM cheat sheet are Matt Forte at $16, Justin Forsett at $13, a Tim Hightower at $4 and an Ahmad Bradshaw at $2 (which would be the steal of the century).

BEST CASE:  Michael Turner at $43, Matt Forte at $16, Tim Hightower at $4 and Ahmad Bradshaw at $2. 

CAP HIT:  $65

Wide Receivers

STICK TO THE PLAN:  Our plan is to get a top 10 WR knowing we are going to have to spend some money for it and then build up depth for our WR2 position.

ESPN.COM:  The top 10 WR’s are Andre Johnson at $45, Randy Moss at $41, Larry Fitzgerald at $39, Reggie Wayne at $36, Brandon Marshall at $35, Roddy White at $28, Calvin Johnson at $27, Miles Austin at $26, Desean Jackson at $24 and Steve Smith(Carolina) at $22.

TARGET STRATEGY:  We know that predicting WR output is the hardest thing about fantasy football so we need to be a bit conservative here.  We are going to stay out of the bidding for the top 3 and let the market set.  Since we have Peyton Manning in the fold, we are going to be in on the bidding for Reggie Wayne.  Usually I am not a big fan of having a QB-WR starting connection but this is the exception to the rule with these two.  We are going to go after Reggie Wayne but if the bidding gets too high then we will settle for a Roddy White or DeSean Jackson at a much lower price than the top 3.   We need 3 other receivers and will target the likes of Mike Wallace at $9, Steve Breaston at $8, Eddie Royal at $1 and Jacoby Jones at $1.

BEST CASE:  We’ll pay the $36 for Reggie Wayne, $9 for Mike Wallace, $8 for Steve Breaston, $1 for Eddie Royal and Jacoby Jones.

CAP HIT:  $55

Tight End

STICK TO THE PLAN:  Our plan is to get a top 5 TE no matter what.

ESPN.COM :  The top 5 TE’s are Dallas Clark at $17, Antonio Gates at $16, Vernon Davis at $15, Brent Celek and Tony Gonzalez at $11.

TARGET STRATEGY:  I would love Dallas Clark but having another Colt in my starting line up is too risky so we’ll be in on the bidding with any of the other four.

BEST CASE:  We take Antonio Gates at $16 and a Dustin Keller as a back up at $1.

CAP HIT:  $17

Bottom Line

Our Roster looks like this:

QB:  Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer

RB:  Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Tim Hightower, Ahmad Bradshaw

WR:  Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Steve Breaston, Eddie Royal

TE: Antonio Gates, Dustin Keller

I used $165 of the $200 so I have some flexibility to get a better quality of bench help if I see I might have money left on the table at the end.  My weakest position is Wide Receiver which is what you want as it’s the easiest to get help from the Waiver Wire.

Auction Drafts are becoming more and more popular.  I get many requests to put Auction Values on my web site but you don’t need that.  Your league will determine market value.  You just need to come with your player rankings and a game plan.  Let the other owner’s blow the budget for the top players, you will win in the end with a balanced team.  Stick to the Plan.  It works.

Your first round pick. The one you think about the most. The anchor of your team. The guy you pencil in your starting line up and never take him out except for a bye week. Your MVP. The most important guy on your team.

History tells us that there are no sure things in the first round, or any round for that matter. Some will get hurt and miss a few games, that’s life. But some will stay healthy and just not live up to the preseason hype or expectations.

Let’s look at last year’s consensus pre season Top 10 and see how they did and whether it was a good pick or not.

1. Adrian Peterson: Last year’s #1 pick finished as the # 2 running back. GOOD PICK.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew: Last year’s #2 pick finished as the # 3 running back. GOOD PICK.

3. Michael Turner: Last year’s #3 pick finished as the #19 running back. Hampered by injuries over last 6 games of the season. Prior to that he was performing well. BAD PICK.

4. Matt Forte: Last year’s # 4 pick finished as the #18 running back. Played every game so there’s no excuses. BAD PICK.

5. Steven Jackson: Last year’s # 5 pick finished as the #10 running back. Missed last game of fantasy season so might have been a bit higher. GOOD PICK.

6. Chris Johnson: Last year’s #6 pick finished as the #1 running back. GOOD PICK.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson: Last year’s # 7 pick finished as the #16 running back. BAD PICK.

8. Larry Fitzgerald: Last year’s #8 pick finished as the #6 wide receiver. Fitzgerald had a good season but not worthy of first round numbers. BAD PICK.

9. DeAngelo Williams: Last year’s # 9 pick finished as the #11 running back. GOOD PICK.

10. Andre Johnson: Last year’s #10 pick finished as the # 1 wide receiver but was #26 overall. This is why you shouldn’t pick a wide receiver in the first round. BAD PICK.

That’s five good picks and five bad picks so one might think that you have a 50-50 chance of making a good pick in the first round. Not true. Last year this web site cautioned against LaDainian Tomlinson in the first round as well as not taking a wide receiver in the first round. That’s 3 of the 5 bad picks where the reader’s of this site were told to shy away from in the first round. Now I didn’t get it all right of course. I endorsed Michael Turner as the #1 pick overall and although he was looking good early in the season, he missed 6 games and it ended up being a bad pick.

Let’s take a look at the consensus Top 10 for this year as it stands now according to the Fantasy Football Calculator and make some predictions about whether it will be a good pick or not.

1. Chris Johnson: I think he’s the real deal. GOOD PICK.

2. Adrian Peterson: Very consistent past few years. I think it continues. GOOD PICK.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew: I’m starting to get concerned about his age and amount of carries but I think he’ll still finish worthy of a first round pick. GOOD PICK.

4. Ray Rice: Last year’s # 4 Matt Forte turned out to be a first round bust and I wonder if that could be the case here as well where he puts up good numbers but not great which is what you want in the first round. I watched Rice a lot last year and I like the dual threats out of the backfield. GOOD PICK.

5. Andre Johnson: I am sure Johnson will put up great numbers as a wide receiver but I don’t take wide receivers in the first round. Doesn’t make sense. BAD PICK.

6. Frank Gore: This is where I am starting to worry a bit. I am not 100% sold. We know from history that some of these top running backs are going to be disappointments. BAD PICK.

7. Michael Turner: Tough call. Bounce back season or did he hit the wall? I say bounce back. GOOD PICK.

8. Steven Jackson: There is no denying his talent. But that team and his late season injuries and blowouts have me always cautious of Jackson. BAD PICK.

9. Randy Moss: No idea what to expect out of Moss this season. BAD PICK.

10. Aaron Rodgers: Normally I would not endorse a quarterback in the first round so I need to stick to my guns no matter how tempting it would be to take Rodgers. BAD PICK.

There are no sure things in the first round. Knowing that and accepting it gives you the advantage of the rest of your league. You need to think about each of these 10 players and whether you feel they are worthy of a first round pick because these are the names that are going to be staring at you when your first pick comes. Let’s hope you make a Good Pick.

It’s one of my favorite moments of a fantasy football draft.  You are watching an owner who is on the clock agonize over  his upcoming selection.  He is squirming in his seat, rubbing his forehead, starting to sweat.  He starts checking his cheat sheets, opening up his magazine and then staring off into space.  He takes a deep breath and you know what he is about to do.  He opens his mouth and says the name quietly.

He just drafted someone he didn’t really want.

You can look at any cheat sheet and see a ton of players that you want on your team.  You can also see a bunch that you don’t want for a wide variety of reasons such as they are injury prone, in a timeshare, character issues, etc.  Usually, most of these players have talent and have shown flashes of excellence but you know that it could go either way.  It could be a hit or a miss. 

Here is a group of players that are going to get drafted  in your fantasy draft but you might want to stock up on the Pepto-Bismol if they make it onto your roster because it’s not going to be easy. 

Quarterbacks

Phillip Rivers:  Doesn’t have a true #1 wide receiver to start the season and a rookie running back to block in the backfield will equate to Antonio Gates being tripled teamed and an increase in sacks.

Kevin Kolb:  Short lease in Philly and Michael Vick standing on the sideline.

Matt Cassel:  Kansas City’s 50 million dollar man still needs to prove he belongs.

Running Backs

Steven Jackson: Only missed one game last year.  What’s the chances he does that again?

Shonn Greene:  He has only had one real good game and LaDainian Tomlinson standing on the sidelines ready to swoop in for the 1 yard touchdown runs.

Ryan Matthews:  I tend to shy away from rookie running backs as they usually are over hyped.  Someone in your league will take him in the second round.

Wide Receivers

Randy Moss:  Contract season and he wants out.  Will Moss turn into Operation Shutdown to keep himself healthy to get out of New England?

Wes Welker:  The knee appears to be healthy according to the New England Patriots who are known for their honesty when it come to injuries, right?

Vincent Jackson: Nothing more frustrating than to try to properly assess fantasy value in August to someone facing a suspension and is threatening to hold out the season.

Tight Ends

Jason Witten:  Could help you early in the season but no chance he stays healthy all year.

Todd Heap:  I used to think Heap was going to be one of the greatest tight ends ever.  I suffered many years with him on my team thinking that.

Jeremy Shockey: Looks good on paper but it might be near the end of the road for Shockey.

My philosophy is that fantasy football is about minimizing risk.  Others believe it’s about taking chances.  Stock up on the Pepto-Bismol if you are going to draft these guys because it’s not going to be easy on your stomach.

I just spent the weekend in one of my favorite cities, Pittsburgh.  I took my wife who had never been and I loved playing the role of tour guide.  Pittsburgh is a football town.  Yes they have a hockey team and a great baseball stadium and some players who wear a baseball uniform but it’s a football town.  Walking around the city on Saturday morning you would have thought there was a game by the number of football jerseys being worn.  It’s part of their normal year round wardrobe.  I turned on the radio and the announcer was talking about Mike Wallace, a wide receiver for the Steelers, and projected him to 1100 yards, 80 catches and 11 touchdowns this upcoming season.  If that turns out to be true, Mike Wallace would be a top 10 fantasy Wide Receiver this year and I don’t even have him ranked in my top 40.  Then I said the magic words. Sleeper.

The word Sleeper gets tossed around more than a frisbee on a college campus and yet no one agrees on its true defination.  Without over analyzing things, my defination of a Sleeper is  a player that you get much better production from than someone else taken at that point in the draft.  By the time your draft starts, most of the owners in your league will have read all the articles about potential sleepers and it’s like a hot tip at the horse track that everyone knows about.  My advice is to avoid the Sleeper columns on the major web sites and to research your potential sleepers on obscure sites, like this one here at www.fantasy-football-first.com.  If ESPN calls Justin Forsett a Sleeper and 10 million people read it then chances are that he is going to lose the definition of a Sleeper and might become so over hyped that he becomes a Bust by getting drafted too early in comparison to his actual production.

So let the other owners in your league read the Sleeper columns on Espn and Yahoo with ten million other people.  Here at www.fantasy-football-first.com, we put the first in our name because our goal is for just one guy to read our site and as a result, finish first.

I have come up with ten potential Sleepers for this upcoming season.  These are players that have the potential to do much better than their average draft position. 

Don’t nap on these 10 Sleepers.

QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford

Analysis: Stafford played 10 games last year limited by injuries.  He showed promise with his toughness and was the victim of a lot of dropped balls.  Surprisingly, Stafford had the 3rd best fantasy game among all Quarterbacks with his 40 points in Week 11.  I expect him to continue to get better and if things go well, could be a top 12 Quarterback this season.

Strategy:  Stafford is a player that you could target to be a back up QB or even a spot starter in leagues that allow you to play a QB as a Flex player.  Mock Drafts have him being drafted between the 9th and 14th rounds.  I would target him as a Sleeper pick in the 11th-12th round.

Ben Roethlisberger

Analysis:  In this type of situation you need to make up your own mind how you are going to play it well before your draft starts.  He’s suspended the first 4-6 games of the season and Pittsburgh has their bye week in Week 5 so there’s no chance he plays before Week 6.  If he wasn’t suspended, Roethlisberger would be a top 7 QB and probably go in the 4th round of most drafts.  He’s obviously going to fall in your league’s draft well past the 4th round because he’s going to miss the first half of the fantasy season.  This is a tough call but I am going to lean towards his suspension being just the 4 games and there will be no drop off in his production from last year once he returns.

Strategy:  The most interesting fantasy player of the season.  He was a top 5 QB last season who is going to fall into the late rounds in most drafts.  I am going to try to get him if for no other reason than to trade him when he returns and he’s the talk of the league.  Mock Drafts have him going in the 10th-13th round.  I am targeting him in the 10th and it could be a steal.

RUNNING BACKS

Matt Forte

Analysis:  This time last year some were making the debate that Forte was worthy of the # 1 pick.  He had a disappointing season in which he finished #18 for fantasy running backs.  He averaged 10.2 points a game.  Would you take 10 points a week out of your RB2 position?  I would.  I think he improves on that a bit this year and could average 12 points a game which should put him in the top 15.

Strategy:  Fantasy football owners have a short term memory so the thought of Forte being a first round bust last year will be fresh in their minds.  Mock Drafts have him going in the 4th-6th round and being the 21st running back selected.  I am targeting a 4th round steal and it might be hard to pass him up in the 3rd round.

Chris Wells

Analysis:  Wells finished 29th among all running backs last season but many people are touting him this season because Arizona figures to run the ball more with the retirement of Kurt Warner and he finished the season strong  last year averaging 16 fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks.  He’s in an interesting committee with Tim Hightower but I think Wells is going to average 10 points per game this season and be a top 20 running back.

Strategy:  Wells is all over the place in Mock Drafts so far this year going between the 2nd and 5th rounds.  I like for him to be a Sleeper in the 4th round if still available.  If he goes before that, consider yourself lucky you didn’t waste a real high draft pick.  This is the perfect example of someone who is a Sleeper if you can get him in the 4th-5th round but a potential Bust if you draft him in the 2nd round.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Wallace

Analysis:  Wallace finished 30th in fantasy wide receivers last year which is promising for a first year wide receiver but he had a lot of games in which he was shut down.  He had 6 games in which he had 3 fantasy points or less.  I need more consistency out of the Wide Receiver position.  They love him in Pittsburgh and expect big things this year.

Strategy:  Mock drafts have him going between the 5th and 10th rounds.  No way am I taking him before the 8th round but if he falls that far and I get numbers close to what Pittsburgh fans predict out of him then I will have a nice Sleeper.

Early Doucet

Analysis:  One of the best names in the NFL, reminds one of the side effects of their morning coffee.  Doucet barely played last year but will have an opportunity to be the slot receiver for the Cardinals with the departure of Anquan Boldin.   I expect enough production to give him enough fantasy value worthy of a WR4.

Strategy:  Many web sites are all over this pick as a late round sleeper.  With that being said, most fantasy owners tend to go with established veterans with their last Wide Receiver pick while I always try to go with a younger player.  Mock drafts have him going in the 11th-15th rounds.  I like him to be a WR4 and I would target him in the 13-14th round.

Brandon Gibson

Analysis:  It’s rare for a NFL player to be traded during the season but that’s exactly what happened to Brandon Gibson.  The numbers that stand out to me is how many times he was targeted in the games he played.  Over the last 7 weeks of the season, Gibson was thrown to at least 5 times in every game including a whopping 17 times in Week 11.  The only way you can get points from your wide receiver is for them to have the ball thrown to them and it appears the Rams want to get this kid the ball.

Strategy:  Gibson is not getting drafted in most Mock Drafts so far this season.  Watch his injury status and early preseason games.  If you are in a deep league, target him for a 4th or 5th WR slot.  A lot of upside but sometimes players like this just fade away too.

Who are some of your favorite Sleepers for this season?  Email me your thoughts and I’ll look to run the list in a future column.

Last night I participated in a 12 team standard style scoring fantasy football mock draft on Yahoo.  Normally I wouldn’t participate in something like this.  It’s like going out for your 21st birthday and ordering an O’douls but I am starting to get antsy as I am about 30 days away from my real draft so Let’s Mock!

My main concern with the Mock Draft was whether people were going to take it seriously because there’s no consequences but I am happy to say that it appeared everyone did.  I drafted out of the first position, a place where I am normally not in as the league I am in bases their draft order on the reverse order of finish from the previous season, and that was interesting.  When drafting first, you get that top pick which was Chris Johnson but then you have to wait a loooooooong time for it to come back to you.  When you have a top pick, one of your positions is going to suffer and for me it was the Wide Receiver position.  I’m fine with that as that’s the deepest position.

My strategy for this Mock Draft, and every other draft I participate in, is simply this: 

1. Draft the best available Running Back in the first round.
2. Draft a top 5 Quarterback.
3. Draft a top tier Tight End (this year the top tier goes 5 deep).
4. Draft a top ten Wide Receiver.
5. Develop committees for your WR2 and RB2 positions by building up depth in the middle rounds.
6. Take some late round chances on players that could help at the end of the season or be cut for Waiver Wire Pick Ups. Hit or Miss Picks.

Below you will see how it all played out with my comments in BOLD.

Your Team

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1. Chris Johnson (Ten – RB)  – No Question the top pick. 
2. Tom Brady (NE – QB)       – Have to get a top 5 QB.  I had him ranked # 4.
3. Roddy White (Atl – WR)    - My weakest position.  I had him ranked # 6.
4. Joseph Addai (Ind – RB)    - Not bad value here.  I had him ranked #13.
5. Tony Gonzalez (Atl – TE)   - Would have liked to have done a bit better but solid pick.
6. Brandon Jacobs (NYG – RB) - Risky pick but I’ll take my chances on this guy.
7. Wes Welker (NE – WR)      – With Brady as QB, it’s nice to have Welker as a WR2 or WR3.
8. Justin Forsett (Sea – RB)   - I’ll take him as a RB4 all day long.
9. Steve Breaston (Ari – WR)  -Some upside.
10. Jacoby Jones (Hou – WR) - Here’s my SLEEPER.
11. Terrell Owens (Buf – WR) – Here’s my HIT or MISS pick.
12. Kyle Orton (Den – QB) – Back up QB’s are back up QB’s.
13. Greg Olsen (Chi – TE) -Back up TE’s are Back up TE’s.
14. San Diego (SD – DEF) - Best available.
15. David Akers (Phi – K)  - Best available.
Round by Round results
* your team in bold

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Round 1
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Chris Johnson (Ten – RB)
(2) ricky – Adrian Peterson (Min – RB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac – RB)
(4) Slugger – Ray Rice (Bal – RB)
(5) swil81 – Frank Gore (SF – RB)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Michael Turner (Atl – RB)
(7) Carlos – Andre Johnson (Hou – WR)
(8) bamaL – Drew Brees (NO – QB)
(9) Sam – Rashard Mendenhall (Pit – RB)
(10) Kurt – Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB)
(11) gavinstitt – Peyton Manning (Ind – QB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Jamaal Charles (KC – RB)

Round 2
(1) Trent Edwards – Steven Jackson (StL – RB)
(2) gavinstitt – Randy Moss (NE – WR)
(3) Kurt – Larry Fitzgerald (Ari – WR)
(4) Sam – Ryan Mathews (SD – RB)
(5) bamaL – DeAngelo Williams (Car – RB)
(6) Carlos – Ryan Grant (GB – RB)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Miles Austin (Dal – WR)
(8) swil81 – Reggie Wayne (Ind – WR)
(9) Slugger – Brandon Marshall (Mia – WR)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Shonn Greene (NYJ – RB)
(11) ricky – DeSean Jackson (Phi – WR)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Tom Brady (NE – QB)

Round 3
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Roddy White (Atl – WR)
(2) ricky – Philip Rivers (SD – QB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Calvin Johnson (Det – WR)
(4) Slugger – Matt Schaub (Hou – QB)
(5) swil81 – Cedric Benson (Cin – RB)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Tony Romo (Dal – QB)
(7) Carlos – LeSean McCoy (Phi – RB)
(8) bamaL – Antonio Gates (SD – TE)
(9) Sam – Sidney Rice (Min – WR)
(10) Kurt – Pierre Thomas (NO – RB)
(11) gavinstitt – Beanie Wells (Ari – RB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Greg Jennings (GB – WR)

Round 4
(1) Trent Edwards – Marques Colston (NO – WR)
(2) gavinstitt – Anquan Boldin (Bal – WR)
(3) Kurt – Jahvid Best (Det – RB)
(4) Sam – Steve Smith (Car – WR)
(5) bamaL – Ronnie Brown (Mia – RB)
(6) Carlos – Dallas Clark (Ind – TE)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Vincent Jackson (SD – WR)
(8) swil81 – Steve Smith (NYG – WR)
(9) Slugger – Vernon Davis (SF – TE)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Chad Ochocinco (Cin – WR)
(11) ricky – Michael Crabtree (SF – WR)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Joseph Addai (Ind – RB)

Round 5
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Tony Gonzalez (Atl – TE)
(2) ricky – Knowshon Moreno (Den – RB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Jermichael Finley (GB – TE)
(4) Slugger – Dwayne Bowe (KC – WR)
(5) swil81 – Hakeem Nicks (NYG – WR)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – New York (NYJ – DEF)
(7) Carlos – Pierre Garcon (Ind – WR)
(8) bamaL – Hines Ward (Pit – WR)
(9) Sam – Brett Favre (Min – QB)
(10) Kurt – Jonathan Stewart (Car – RB)
(11) gavinstitt – Matt Forte (Chi – RB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Kevin Kolb (Phi – QB)

Round 6
(1) Trent Edwards – Percy Harvin (Min – WR)
(2) gavinstitt – Reggie Bush (NO – RB)
(3) Kurt – Jason Witten (Dal – TE)
(4) Sam – Mike Sims-Walker (Jac – WR)
(5) bamaL – Donald Driver (GB – WR)
(6) Carlos – Santana Moss (Was – WR)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Felix Jones (Dal – RB)
(8) swil81 – Jay Cutler (Chi – QB)
(9) Slugger – Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG – RB)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Jeremy Maclin (Phi – WR)
(11) ricky – Brent Celek (Phi – TE)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Brandon Jacobs (NYG – RB)

Round 7
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Wes Welker (NE – WR)
(2) ricky – Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Eli Manning (NYG – QB)
(4) Slugger – T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea – WR)
(5) swil81 – Owen Daniels (Hou – TE)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Mike Wallace (Pit – WR)
(7) Carlos – Donovan McNabb (Was – QB)
(8) bamaL – Dez Bryant (Dal – WR)
(9) Sam – Kellen Winslow (TB – TE)
(10) Kurt – Robert Meachem (NO – WR)
(11) gavinstitt – Matt Ryan (Atl – QB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Montario Hardesty (Cle – RB)

Round 8
(1) Trent Edwards – Jerome Harrison (Cle – RB)
(2) gavinstitt – C.J. Spiller (Buf – RB)
(3) Kurt – Johnny Knox (Chi – WR)
(4) Sam – Minnesota (Min – DEF)
(5) bamaL – Joe Flacco (Bal – QB)
(6) Carlos – Pittsburgh (Pit – DEF)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Visanthe Shiancoe (Min – TE)
(8) swil81 – Green Bay (GB – DEF)
(9) Slugger – Baltimore (Bal – DEF)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Philadelphia (Phi – DEF)
(11) ricky – Stephen Gostkowski (NE – K)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Justin Forsett (Sea – RB)

Round 9
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Steve Breaston (Ari – WR)
(2) ricky – San Francisco (SF – DEF)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Garrett Hartley (NO – K)
(4) Slugger – Nate Kaeding (SD – K)
(5) swil81 – Mason Crosby (GB – K)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Rob Bironas (Ten – K)
(7) Carlos – Ryan Longwell (Min – K)
(8) bamaL – Fred Jackson (Buf – RB)
(9) Sam – Lawrence Tynes (NYG – K)
(10) Kurt – Lee Evans (Buf – WR)
(11) gavinstitt – Ricky Williams (Mia – RB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Michael Bush (Oak – RB)

Round 10
(1) Trent Edwards – Darren McFadden (Oak – RB)
(2) gavinstitt – Demaryius Thomas (Den – WR)
(3) Kurt – New York (NYG – DEF)
(4) Sam – Marion Barber (Dal – RB)
(5) bamaL – LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ – RB)
(6) Carlos – Braylon Edwards (NYJ – WR)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Derrick Mason (Bal – WR)
(8) swil81 – Thomas Jones (KC – RB)
(9) Slugger – Clinton Portis (Was – RB)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Matthew Stafford (Det – QB)
(11) ricky – Devin Aromashodu (Chi – WR)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Jacoby Jones (Hou – WR)

Round 11
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Terrell Owens (Buf – WR)
(2) ricky – Ben Tate (Hou – RB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Carnell Williams (TB – RB)
(4) Slugger – John Carlson (Sea – TE)
(5) swil81 – Devin Hester (Chi – WR)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Arian Foster (Hou – RB)
(7) Carlos – Antonio Bryant (Cin – WR)
(8) bamaL – Austin Collie (Ind – WR)
(9) Sam – Eddie Royal (Den – WR)
(10) Kurt – Rian Lindell (Buf – K)
(11) gavinstitt – Santonio Holmes (NYJ – WR)
(12) Trent Edwards – Zach Miller (Oak – TE)

Round 12
(1) Trent Edwards – Dallas (Dal – DEF)
(2) gavinstitt – Chris Cooley (Was – TE)
(3) Kurt – Kenny Britt (Ten – WR)
(4) Sam – Carson Palmer (Cin – QB)
(5) bamaL – Ben Roethlisberger (Pit – QB)
(6) Carlos – Donald Brown (Ind – RB)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Alex Smith (SF – QB)
(8) swil81 – Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle – WR)
(9) Slugger – Julian Edelman (NE – WR)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ – WR)
(11) ricky – Kevin Walter (Hou – WR)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Kyle Orton (Den – QB)

Round 13
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Greg Olsen (Chi – TE)
(2) ricky – Chad Henne (Mia – QB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Devin Thomas (Was – WR)
(4) Slugger – Arrelious Benn (TB – WR)
(5) swil81 – Vince Young (Ten – QB)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Donnie Avery (StL – WR)
(7) Carlos – Dustin Keller (NYJ – TE)
(8) bamaL – Miami (Mia – DEF)
(9) Sam – Chaz Schilens (Oak – WR)
(10) Kurt – Heath Miller (Pit – TE)
(11) gavinstitt – Steve Slaton (Hou – RB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Josh Scobee (Jac – K)

Round 14
(1) Trent Edwards – Bernard Berrian (Min – WR)
(2) gavinstitt – Cincinnati (Cin – DEF)
(3) Kurt – Matt Cassel (KC – QB)
(4) Sam – Marcedes Lewis (Jac – TE)
(5) bamaL – Jeremy Shockey (NO – TE)
(6) Carlos – New Orleans (NO – DEF)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Todd Heap (Bal – TE)
(8) swil81 – Brandon Pettigrew (Det – TE)
(9) Slugger – Josh Johnson (TB – QB)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Anthony Fasano (Mia – TE)
(11) ricky – Sebastian Janikowski (Oak – K)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – San Diego (SD – DEF)

Round 15
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – David Akers (Phi – K)
(2) ricky – Jermaine Gresham (Cin – TE)
(3) scottpatoprsty – John Kasay (Car – K)
(4) Slugger – Ryan Succop (KC – K)
(5) swil81 – Robbie Gould (Chi – K)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Indianapolis (Ind – DEF)
(7) Carlos – Byron Leftwich (Pit – QB)
(8) bamaL – Matt Prater (Den – K)
(9) Sam – Tennessee (Ten – DEF)
(10) Kurt – Jeff Reed (Pit – K)
(11) gavinstitt – Jay Feely (Ari – K)
(12) Trent Edwards – Golden Tate (Sea – WR)

You ever notice that magazines are getting smaller and smaller these days?  It used to take me a good three days of bathroom visits to get through a Sports Illustrated but now I can get it done in one, albeit a long one.  Blame the economy cutting back on advertising budgets.  Blame the internet for making magazines outdated by the time they get to you.  Maybe I’m old fashioned but I still like a good sports magazine.  If it’s any type of Preview or Special Issue then I get all excited and start loading up on the fiber because it’s gonna be a good night and I am going to come out of this a little wiser and a few pounds lighter.

ESPN the Mag is the first sports magazine to show up in my mail box each week.  Thanks to a lot of frequent flier miles on airlines that don’t fly to my city, I get to use my miles on magazine subscriptions.  I used to love ESPN the Mag when Bill Simmons wrote for them.  He’s my favorite writer and you can read him on Espn.com which I am sure you already know.  Occasionally he will write these Running Diary columns in which he writes as he is watching something like March Madness or a Celtics game.  Very entertaining. 

So with that in mind, I am going to do my own version of the Running Diary as I read ESPN the Mag’s NFL Fantasy Special Issue which arrived today.  I am sitting down to read it at 10:45 EST on July 20, 2010.  I am all excited! You will be taken inside my brain as I document my thoughts as I read the magazine. 

 This is going to be fun.

Let’s read !

10:45 pm:  Aaron Rodgers is on the cover.  He was huge last year.  I have him #1 in my Quarterback rankings.  He’s gonna go in the first round of your draft.  Is there an ESPN the Mag cover jinx?  Doesn’t matter to me as he’s not going to be on my team.  I’m not taking a Quarterback that early but I do like the Green Bay offense and I am getting all giddy about the possibility of getting Ryan Grant in the second round this year.  Also on the cover, they say there is a Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet inside! 

10:47 pm:  Flipping past the three page article on Aaron Rodgers, I come to their Fantasy Football Strategy Guide.  OK, here we go.  Their first tip is to take Adrian Peterson over Chris Johnson.  Their logic is that Chris Johnson had too many big plays last year and it’s unlikely to duplicate that this season and Adrian Peterson has been a consistent top 3 running back for 3 seasons.  If they want to take Adrian Peterson with the top pick I am perfectly fine to be stuck with Chris Johnson at number two.  I’ll manage.  But maybe Chris Johnson had so many big plays last season because Chris Johnson is pretty good and fast.  I’ll leave him at #1 on my Player Rankings.  Oh no, I just peaked at their Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet and guess who they have at #1 of their top 150?  Chris Johnson.  That’s what we call in the business world as a CYA move.  Cover Your Ass.  Way to go telling everyone to take Adrian Peterson at #1 and then rank Chris Johnson as #1.

10:55 pm:  Their # 2 tip is to avoid taking a Quarterback too early in the draft based on the Value Based Drafting theory.  I used to follow that theory but I got tired of watching people win championships in fantasy football by having the top Quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers last year, Drew Brees the year before, Tom Brady the year before and so on.  The NFL has changed.  It’s a passing league and until fantasy football leagues lower the points for Quarterbacks, you need to have a top 5, preferably a top 3 on your team to dominate your league.  It’s up to your league to determine whether QB’s are going to go in the 1st round or the 3rd round but whenever you need to draft one, you need to make sure you have a top one.  Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and yes, Matt Schaub are your top 5 this season.  One of those 5 needs to be on your team.  Wouldn’t you know it, they run a chart to prove their point that you should wait on drafting a Quarterback and in their chart they say that Aaron Rodgers is worthy of the #4 overall pick.  I’m getting confused.  Let’s see if they can rally.

11:12pm:  Their #3 tip is to avoid Vincent Jackson and take Malcolm Floyd as a Sleeper instead.  On their Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet they have Floyd ranked #56 on their Wide Receiver list.  I like the logic of this.  In fact I like the logic of this so much that on my Wide Receiver Player Rankings at the top of the page, you will see that I named Malcolm Floyd the Wide Receiver SLEEPER of the draft and have him ranked #32.  Shh, ESPN the Mag, don’t start hyping my SLEEPER PICK. 

11:17 pm:  Tip#4 tells us that the teams with the first pick of the first round and the last pick of the first round do better than those who draft in the middle of the first round.  Ughhh, thanks for the “tip”.

11:19 pm: Tip # 5 lets us know that Vince Young is a top 10 Quarterback.  I don’t necessarily agree as I have him at #20 but either way it doesn’t matter to me as this year I will have a top 5 Quarterback on my team.

11:21 pm:  Tip # 6 gives us the well known information that Running Backs tend to break down quickly after the age of 30 so watch out Justin Fargas, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward.  I’ll make the mental note but somehow I don’t think any of those players will be anywhere near my roster this season.

11:27 pm:  Tip #7 tells us to draft your back up players from West Coast teams like Oakland, Seattle and San Diego because if you have a questionable starter who is playing a late game and he’s ruled out then your back up can be inserted into your line up and you don’t have to be forced to make your line up decision before the early games.  I disagree 100%.  Draft the best team you can regardless of what time zone they play the majority of their games.  Injuries are the big equalizer in fantasy football, you can’t predict it you just have to deal with it.  Drafting your team based on assumptions that your star players might be questionable is too much of a stretch but if ESPN the Mag wants to fill their roster up with Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks, that’s fine with me.

11:39 pm:  Tip # 8 tells us the next Miles Austin is out there and look to a Jacoby Jones, Devin Aromashodu, Chaz Schilens, Laurent Robinson or  James Hardy to possibly be that guy.   I agree that every year a wide receiver comes out of no where and Miles Austin certainly did that.  But you need a Quarterback to get you the ball and Miles had that with Tony Romo.  All the wide receivers they mentioned don’t have a quarterback like a Romo except for ………Jacoby Jones.  I am putting him down as a late round target.  Thanks ESPN the Mag.

11:45 pm:  Tip # 9 tells us to think of Brandon Marshall as more of a Wes Welker than a Randy Moss because of his 8.5 yards per attempt on passes thrown 11 or more yards down field which has him ranked 52 out of 57 wide receivers with 48 or more vertical targets over the past two seasons.  OK, will do, thanks.  Oh by the way, aren’t both Wes Welker and Randy Moss good?

11:50 pm:  Tip # 10 breaks out a whole bunch of mathematical formulas such as Gold Zone Targets and Catches Per Target.  I’m just going to turn the page.

11:51 pm:  Tip # 11 tells us that Greg Olsen has upside this season.  Mental note.

11:55 pm:  Tip # 12 tells us not to sit your starters in bad weather games.  Not sure how this fits into an article they title Draft Strategy but I feel better knowing it.

11:57 pm:  Tip # 13 and they get a little crazy on us.  They say to try to draft all your star players with the same bye week.  That way you will tank one week and be stronger for the other weeks.  That’s borderline moronic.  Draft your starting line up based on who you think is going to perform the best.  Play to win each week.  Your goal should be to go 16-0 , not 15-1.  This isn’t the Indianapolis Colts.  That logic is almost as moronic as one of my buddies who plays the worst line up he can in Week 1 so that he can get the first dibs on the Week 1 Waiver Wire.  Play to win each week.

It took a little over an hour to get through ESPN the Mag’s NFL Fantasy Special.  I disagree with most of their tips because I believe in drafting your starting team based on anticipated performance and not such things as what time the games start, what the weather could be, who might be injured and bye weeks.  But they do have me thinking about Jacoby Jones……………..

Well it’s that time of year when all the fantasy football websites roll out their “Do’s and Don’ts” columns for draft strategy.  You know the ones where they tell you to not  draft a kicker before the last round, bring a cheat sheet, and don’t draft two quarterbacks with the same bye week.

Gee, thanks.

Here at Fantasy-Football-First, we put the “ First”  in our name because that’s where we want you to finish this year.  No excuses.  This is going to be your year if you stick with us.  No one goes undefeated in fantasy football so we know there will be ups and downs.  We know there will be that one week we will lose on a meaningless touchdown at the end of the Monday night game.  We know there will be that one week we start someone in the 4pm game who doesn’t play.  We know we will go up against a team that starts their 4th string wide receiver who goes for 3 td’s.  Those are all heartbreaks that we will have to deal with.  On the other hand, we know we are going to win our league and that’s more than going to make up for all those bumps in the road.

We do this for fun and the fun starts on Draft Day.

I love live drafts.  Sometimes I do participate in an online draft but there’s always something missing.  It’s kind of like poker.  Yes, you can be good at online poker but you never know how good you really are until you play face to face.  The following is a list of Do’s and Don’ts for live drafts based on my 15 years of experience. 

DO – know your league rules.

Sounds simple but you need to know what your league rules are especially regarding roster size, waiver wire pickups and injured players.  You would be surprised how many people I see asking these questions after the draft.

DO- try to get your league to do the draft order a day or two before the draft.

If you have a top 3 pick or a bottom 3 pick or one in the middle is something that would be nice to know before the draft.  Pulling out numbers 5 minutes before the draft does nobody any favors.

DO – get there early.

I’m not exactly sure why getting there early is important.  All I know is the drafts I got there late or was rushing ended up going badly. 

DON’T – Drink.

I know.  It’s a party.  Everyone is going to be drinking.  Every draft I consumed beers at I ended up with Benjamin Watson as my tight end.  Every year I didn’t, it was Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez.  You get the point.

DO – encourage others to drink responsibly.

DO – encourage your league to increase the roster limits.

Some leagues draft 12 players, some 14, some even 20.  Lobby for more players.  Since I know I am going to be more prepared than the other owners, I want to be able to draft more players at the end of the draft when you can still find good players.  The less players on the rosters, the more in the waiver wire pool where they will end up on the worse teams first.

DON’T – tank the first week to get the best waiver claims.

I actually know someone who does this every year.  Makes no sense. Play to win.

DO – find out who your owners root for and praise that teams players you don’t want.

If you know you have a bunch of Redskin fans in your league, talk up how good you think Larry Johnson will be this year and watch him fly off the board in the 2nd  round. 

DO – find out who you can email trade offers to  at work.

Nothing worse than making trade offers to the guy who never checks his email.

DON’T - draft with your heart.

If you are a Dallas fan and your team has Tony Romo, Miles Austin and Felix Jones then you didn’t do your homework.

DO – make sure your running back cheat sheet goes 50 deep.

You don’t want to be that guy flipping through the magazine with a few rounds to go. 

And finally, don’t forget to bring a cheat sheet, draft your kicker in the last round and don’t take two quarterbacks with the same bye week.

Some things in life seem obvious to some but apparently not everyone.

I probably say this every year but this summer seems to be the hottest one I can remember. I live outside Atlanta, Georgia and this past week we were well into the triple digits and the local news team was in a sweaty frenzy. Down here people take their local weather on the news very seriously. Most TV stations don’t just have one weather person to give us the forecast, they have 2 who keep throwing it back to the other to show us something else on the Super 3 D Doppler 2000 Future Supercast Radar. This past week they took it to a different level of hype as we were in the middle of Heat Wave 2010. The worse the weather got, the more disarray their clothes became. At the beginning of the week the weather guy was in his normal suit attire. The second day he lost the jacket and loosened the tie. The third day he had his sleeves rolled up. The fourth day he was in a golf shirt with the sweaty armpits. When the 5th day came, I was fully prepared for him to be standing there in a Speedo. At the end of each day’s weather forecast, he reminded us of some tips to beat the heat such as drink lots of clear fluids, limit our time outside and my personal favorite which was to stay cool.

Honey, can you get me the pen and paper? I need to write down some important tips.

One of the interesting things for me about running this web site is checking out my Stats page. It’s a page that I can see not only how many people visit the site and what pages they view but also how they got here. The most popular page other than the main page is the Running Backs rankings page. The least popular is the Donations page. Although I wish it was the other way around, I can certainly understand. The most important part of fantasy football is running backs. You can’t fake running back knowledge to be successful in a competitive league. If someone drafts CJ Spinner in the 3rd round and someone else asks “what team is that guy on?” then you’re not in a competitive league.

When reviewing my Stats page, I see that I get a lot of visits from people who type into their Google, Yahoo or Bing search engines “Who should I take with the first pick in my fantasy football draft?”. My site will come up high in those search rankings because the name is fantasy-football-first and that’s 3 keywords of that search term. But the interesting thing for me is the question because this year, more than ever, it’s obvious who the first pick should be. The same goes for the number 2 pick. There should be no doubt that Chris Johnson should go number 1 and Adrian Peterson number 2. After that I would take Maurice Jones-Drew and then Ray Rice at 4. That’s the last of the sure picks. The real draft starts at pick 5 this year.

Starting with the # 5 Running Back and continuing on through the rest of possible first round picks, each one has some causes for concern that you need to think about over the next few weeks before your draft. You need to determine whether you would feel comfortable enough with their baggage to have them as the most important player on your roster. They are:

Michael Turner: Is he durable enough to hold up for a full season? A big disappointment last year.

Steven Jackson: We know how good he is and how bad his team is. He was healthy last year for the most part but can you bank on that for another season?

Frank Gore: Lots of carries last year. Will that haunt him this year?

DeAngelo Williams: Do you want your first round pick to be in a Running Back By Committee?

Rashard Mendenhall: Played every game last year and finished as the #13 running back.

Ryan Grant: Got him cheap last year and put up great numbers. Won’t come cheap this year. Can he duplicate?

Shonn Greene: Are you comfortable taking a guy who has scored over 10 fantasy points 1 time and has LaDainian Tomlinson as his back up in the first round?

These are tough questions but no one said this was going to be easy. If you came here looking for advice on the first pick, it’s Chris Johnson.  If you need help with the rest, you can view my top 50 Running Backs at the top of the page or by clicking here.  You will also be able to see who I selected as my SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER. 

DRAFT STRATEGY:  I always draft the best available running back with my first pick.  After that, I will either go running back or quarterback with my second pick.  If you don’t get a second running back early in the draft, don’t panic.  Last year many successful teams were able to fill their #2 running back position with late round or even waiver wire picks like Ricky Williams, Justin Forsett or Jerome Harrison.  Avoid aging running backs like Clinton Portis for young ones that fans will be eager to see late in the season like Jahvid Best.  Always draft your #1 running back’s backup but don’t wait too long to do so.

“Everything changed and then changed again”

About 10 years ago I was a branch manager of a local bank and my boss, some regional manager I would see maybe 3-4 times a year, would come waltzing into my branch and sit me down for a review.  Like all evaluations, they start by mentioning all these things positive as you sit there waiting for that one negative thing you know is coming.  Then he said it………”John, you seem to fear change.  You should embrace it.  Become a Change Agent”.  And off he went back to the hotel bar at the Marriott.  After that talk I became a changed man.  Change is good.  So I thought.

I was reminded of that conversation a few years ago after my fantasy football draft.  We were at a bar after the draft talking smack and all of a sudden someone mentioned that my fantasy team always looks the same.  They were right.  I had just drafted Steven Jackson in the first round for the 3rd year in a row.  I also had Peyton Manning, Tony Gonzalez, Adam Vinatieri and the New England Patriots Defense for the third time.  I joked that I was trying to save money by continuing to use the same magazine from 2005 but here it was again that this fear of change was following me around.

Time for a change.

I said good bye to Steven Jackson and his 100 yard, no touchdown games and late season injuries.  Thanks for the memories Adam Vinatieiri and the overrated Patriots defense.  Step aside Tony Gonzalez and make way for the new man in town Antonio Gates.  Not so fast Peyton Manning, you’re still with me.  Change felt good.

This year I am making a rather bold change in my fantasy football draft philosophy.  I no longer am endorsing taking a Running Back with your first two picks as a rule.  I think you need to at least consider taking a Quarterback at the end of the first round or at the beginning of the second round.   The league is changing and becoming more fantasy friendly to the Quarterbacks and this season is the first one where I am making it a priority to get a Quarterback early.

Let’s look at some numbers:

Last season 11 Quarterbacks averaged over  20 points per game.  In 2008, just 5 did.  Maybe it has something to do with the new rules on protecting the quarterback or maybe there has been a shift in play calling, whatever it is the fact remains that there is a change going on and we need to identify it and adapt to it. 

Last season the #1 Quarterback was Aaron Rodgers averaging 25.2 points per game.  The # 10 Quarterback was Eli Manning averaging 19.7.  That’s a 5.5 point per game average differential from 1-10.  In 2008, the #1 Quarterback was Drew Brees averaging 22.5 points per game while the #10 Quarterback was Tony Romo averaging 21.4 for just a 1.1 point differential from 1-10.  In 2008 you could have had any one of the top 10 Quarterbacks and it wouldn’t have mattered much but last year there was dramatic difference between the top tier of Quarterbacks and a lower tier that were starting for some teams in your league.

I am not a big stats guy but it does seem that teams are throwing more especially in the red zone.  But at the very least, you cannot dismiss the numbers that Aaron Rodgers put up last year and Drew Brees the year before and Tom Brady the year before that.  Eventually standard scoring leagues will adapt and lower the points given for passing yards and touchdown throws but until they do, take advantage.

DRAFT STRATEGY:  Many purists will endorse the RB-RB draft philosophy and go after a QB in the middle rounds.  I’m not saying I wouldn’t do that but I am now saying that you need to at least consider going RB-QB or even QB-RB if you have a late first round pick.  Just consider it.

Furthermore, in my main league which is expert level quality, the two teams in the championship had Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning as their Quarterbacks.  The team that had Chris Johnson as their #1 Running back didn’t make the playoffs. 

You can view my Preseason Top 30 Quarterbacks above or by clicking here.  You can also check out who I labelled a SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER.