Fantasy-Football-First

Archive for May, 2009

I decided to take a brief break from my fantasy football research and attend a minor league baseball game this week. I love baseball  and it had been close to two years since I last attended a game. The Atlanta Braves moved their AAA team about 10 miles from my home so I really have no excuse for not going to more games. It was a drizzly night and I took my seat in section 121 which I had all to myself. I was ready to relax and enjoy a nice game.

The first pitch was fouled back into the stands which the announcer stated that any foul, excuse me “fowl”, ball entering the stands could be brought to the Chick-Fil-A customer service station and exchanged for a coupon for a free chicken sandwich. Over the next three hours, there were about 40 foul balls and he reminded us of that every single time. That first batter ended up striking out which the announcer informed us that the strikeout was brought to us by Atlanta Gas which is known for “bringing the heat”. Unfortunately there ended up being 22 strike outs in the game and yes, all were brought to us by Atlanta Gas.

During the inning breaks we were reminded by our announcer that we could purchase the Pepsi family fun packs which are 4 tickets for 40 bucks. In the 3rd inning I had trouble seeing the field because I, still sitting alone in section 121, was surrounded by 3 vendors. The first wanted to sell me cotton candy in which I passed because I am over 12. The second wanted to sell me a can of beer for 6.50 courtesy of Miller Lite. The third was selling programs for 15 dollars which included 5 Braves Bucks that could be used in the gift shop.

Since I couldn’t see the field I looked up at the jumbotron and saw the manager scratching and picking around his nose and wondered if that was going to be brought to us courtesy of Clariton but I guess their sales people hadn’t sold that nose pick, at least not yet. When the ground ball went through the shortstop’s legs, I wondered if that error was brought to us by Bank of America. I used the restroom in the 6th inning that could have also been sponsored by Atlanta Gas or even  Taco Bell but their sales people dropped the ball on that sponsorship. 

 I don’t remember things being so commercialized when I was a kid going to these games. It’s sad but then again I am no better with this website. In an effort to break even on the costs of this site, I have to run ads. So, not only do you get our free cheat sheets and all that cool  stuff, you also get the ability to find your future spouse courtesy of match.com or your credit score from Equifax. Not only can you read about fantasy football and link to other fantasy football sites, you can also stop by our STORE page and buy something from Amazon or tickets from Ticketmaster or Stub Hub. I guess that’s the way it is these days but sometimes I wish things were less commercialized although if one of those vendors were selling ear plugs, they would have made a sale.

 Let’s open this weeks Notebook.

The Notebook:

• I have read the stories this week regarding the pit bull attack in the home of Steeler’s James Harrison that severely injured his 2 year old baby as well as his mother and another person in the home.  It’s sad, no question about that but this article on Espn.com alarmed me.   The agent for Harrison talks about the incident and is quoted as saying “There is no reason to believe that this is anything other than something that sometimes happens to children”.   Excuse me?  I know lots of people with children and I don’t know anyone who has had their child attacked by a pit bull in their home.  I don’t get this fascination with pit bulls that some NFL players seem to have.  On Wednesday I heard Hines Ward, who I think is great, on 680 The Fan in Atlanta talk about how this is the 3rd attack by a pit bull in recent years to someone in the Steeler’s family.  That’s just sad and possibly criminal.  I hope I don’t read any more stories like this.
• All eyes were on New England this week as Tom Brady was on the practice field.  I hope he proves me wrong but I am still convinced there will be a drop off in production from Brady this year and it amazes me that the Patriots have not signed a veteran back up.
• I am in the process of compiling the running back rankings and the one person who many have written off  but I am not so sure of is LaDanian Tomlinson.  He is going to be ranked somewhere between 8 and 20, I am still trying to figure it out.
• As much as he has burned me in the past two years, could Steven Jackson be a top 5 running back this year?  He has the tools.
• CBS has the results of their first mock draft up and I was surprised DeAngelo Williams went 6th. 

Notebook is closed and check back as we should have the running back rankings up very soon.

JC

We have released our Top 50 Wide Receiver Draft Day Cheat Sheet.  We will update this frequently as we head towards the start of the season.  As much as it pains us to do so, we followed most websites and placed Larry Fitzgerald at the top of the list.  However, in our Draft Strategy section of the Cheat Sheet we advise against making him a first round selection.  We placed Reggie Wayne at number 2 and think he is going to be huge this season.  Roddy White was a surprise to be ranked in the top 5 and Randy Moss was a surprise to be ranked outside the top 5.  We are high on Vincent Jackson and Anthony Gonzalez to provide good value.  We labeled Donnie Avery as our SLEEPER and Chris Henry as a SUPER SLEEPER.  Check out the complete rankings under the Cheat Sheet tab above and check back soon for our highly anticipated running back rankings.

 Loading ...

Memorial Day Weekend, the official start of the summer season, and Fantasy Football is starting to creep up on us.  Between now and Labor Day, there will be mini camps, holdouts, preseason injuries, cuts, signings, arrests and position battles.  We’ll have our mock drafts and our real drafts.  It’s starting to become the busy time of year when we decide how many leagues to join, what type of leagues, what websites to play on and what websites to get information from.  Here at the F-F-F, ( fantasy-football-first.com ) we hope that you will stop by every now and then and check out our rankings, columns and features.  You can keep up to date with our site by utilizing our widget to the right and check back often as we are developing this site daily.   Let’s open this week’s Notebook.

The Notebook:

• Michael Vick has been the number 1 story on Espn this week.  The thing that I don’t get is  nobody other than Espn really cares about this story.  No one is talking about it, it’s not even on the Google Trends list.  Espn is writing stories on what teams might be interested in Vick for this season.  Not one team has expressed an interest and I don’t see a bidding war developing.  Atlanta owns his rights and will most likely end up cutting him.  If a team does sign Vick, not only will they have to do deal with the Espn circus, but then they know Vick will be suspended for at least 4 games.  Too much baggage.  From a fantasy football prospective he has no value for this season.  Take him off any draft board even in keeper leagues.
• Reports out of New England says that the injury of Tom Brady is not an issue and that he is a “full go” according to the SportingNews.  Also out of New England this week, we learned that Laurence Maroney had a broken bone in his shoulder last season.  You will never get a straight answer out of New England and I have Brady ranked lower than any other website at this point ( currently at # 7 ) and I am not moving him up until I see video of him on the field and not on TMZ.  If I see how he is moving at mini camp ( I bet we won’t see him ) or in the preseason ( not a chance ) , I’ll re evaluate the ranking but until then something smells fishy in New England and it’s not the clam chowder.
• Espn has an interesting article up where they list the 7 QB battles to be decided between now and Week 1.  I think it’s safe to say that not one of these teams are playoff bound in my eyes but here are my Memorial Day predictions for these QB battles.  JaMarcus Russell over Jeff Garcia in Oakland. Sage Rosenfels over Tavaris Jackson in Minnesota.  Matthew Stafford over Daunte Culpepper in Detroit if they are smart.  Mark Sanchez over Kellen Clemons in New York and Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson in Cleveland.  I have no idea about the QB situation in San Francisco and Tampa Bay.  I guess that’s why we have the preseason. 
• Have a happy and safe Memorial Day.

Notebook is closed.

JC

We have released our Quarterback draft day Cheat Sheet and Drew Brees takes the top spot. We are also high on Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Kurt Warner should he stay healthy all year. We have concerns about Tom Brady who we ranked at #7. I have seen other websites rank him consistently in the top 3 but that injury and New England’s spin regarding injuries has me concerned. We are on the fence with Matt Cassell but think Matt Hasselback could bounce back and have given David Garrard the Sleeper label. Check out our top 40 rankings plus quarterback draft strategy in the Quarterback section of the Cheat Sheet tab at the top of the page.

We have released the rankings for the tight end position.  Dallas Clark grabs the top spot as he is primed for a huge season.  Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates make up the top 4.  After that group there is a considerable drop off in production.  Martellus Bennett from Dallas is our Sleeper and Alex Smith of New England is a Super Sleeper.  You can read all the rankings plus our tight end draft strategy under the Cheat Sheet tab at the top of the page.  We will be ranking quarterbacks next so check back soon. JC

 Loading ...

Welcome to This Week in Fantasy Football !  This will be my weekly column about the transactions of the week as well as what’s on my mind as we head towards and prepare for the upcoming season.  This site has been up now for two weeks and I am humbled by the support so far.  We have had over 2500 visitors and nearly 75000 hits in just 14 days.  That tells me  people love football and playing fantasy sports although we have had a large number of hits from Europe so I am sorry for those who think this site is about soccer.  Thank You for the support and we hope to be a part of your fantasy football season.   Check out our new widget in the right hand column.  You can subscribe to the feed and always be up to date.   Here’s what’s on my mind this week from The Notebook.

The Notebook:

• Looks like we may have had a reader from Fox Sports recently.  If you scroll down below and look at my Super Sleeper column on May 7th.  I listed three 7th round draft picks that could provide fantasy value.  On May 13th, Fox Sports ran a story about a player I wrote about, Rashad Jennings.  Read what I wrote on the 7th and see what Fox Sports wrote on the 13th.  In the article, the author wrote that a player drafted in the 7th round from a Division 1-AA school would be an afterthought.  Not so fast Fox Sports, we here at Fantasy-Football-First singled him out a week before your article.
• I am tired of the Brett Favre comeback stories.  Maybe I am bitter because that stinker he put up in Week 17 that cost the Patriots a playoff spot is fresh in my mind but I refuse to read the stories.  I do know that if Minnesota signs him, it stands to help Adrian Peterson’s numbers.
• The Miami Dolphins signed Jason Taylor.  I had been reading reports that he was going to the Patriots.  So Bill Parcells signs an aging player that he let go last year when he discovers that New England is interested.  The soap opera continues.  Good signing by Miami, not only do they get an intelligent player but they keep him away from the Patriots.  Miami’s defense could surprise this year, I do have them ranked pretty high on my Defense Cheat Sheet .
• I see a lot of people are high on Calvin Johnson this year.  Many sites have him as the #1 wide receiver.  I have not started working on my wide receiver rankings yet ( tight end’s coming out in a few days ) but I don’t see me ranking him that high. 
• We all know the story about how wide receiver’s usually have their breakout year in year three of their career.  With that being said, I am really liking Steve Breaston and Anthony Gonzalez .
• With a good young quarterback, a stud at running back, a group of quick receiver’s, a top veteran at tight end, Atlanta is going to score some points this year.  I could see them doing very well and going deep in the playoffs.

Closing this week’s Notebook.  Keep checking in with us as we are working daily on releasing our Draft Day Cheat Sheets.  – JC

We continue releasing the first updates of our Draft Day Cheat Sheets and we are up to Kickers.  Stephen Gostowski of the New England Patriots takes the top spot.  We will be updating this frequently as we head towards the start of the season.  You can find our rankings in the Cheat Sheet tab above and look for the Kicker page where you will also find our draft strategy for kickers.   Feel free to leave a comment on the Contact page  if you have any thoughts you would like to express for a future Mailbag column.  Tight End Rankings will be the next category in a few days so please check back soon.

Our first draft day Cheat Sheet has been released. Defense / Special Teams have been ranked 1-32 and are available for viewing on our DEFENSE page under the CHEAT SHEET tab. Pittsburgh is ranked # 1 ! Keep checking back as we reveal other positions very soon. All Cheat Sheets will be up by June 1st and will be updated frequently until NFL’s opening kickoff. Let us know what you think on the Contact page and don’t forget to participate in our poll at the end of the rankings. JC

 Loading ...

You can’t go wrong with a top 3 pick this year in your fantasy football draft.  After the top 3 there is a substantial drop off so consider yourself extremely lucky if you grab one of the top 3 selections.  When I first sat down to research this column, I thought the #1 pick would be Adrian Peterson and the debate would be for #2.  I was wrong in that assumption and quickly realized that there is no sure fire #1 pick as there have been in recent years and that the margin that separates the top 3 is slim.

Here at www.fantasy-football-first.com, our philosophy to building your team and winning your league is to obtain information from many sources and use that as a tool to form our own opinion.  We place a heavy emphasis on match ups.  Fantasy Football is all about match ups.  If you have 2 running backs of equal talent and one is playing the tough Pittsburgh defense and the other is playing Detroit than you go with the guy playing Detroit.  That’s where these mock drafts and top 200 player rankings that the major corporate fantasy football sites churn out will fail you if that’s your sole source of information.

Let’s break it down.

Most websites, big and small, have the top 3 players at running back and overall as being Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner and Matt Forte.  Unlike recent years, there is some debate as to who the #1 pick should be.  CBS Sports has Adrian Peterson atop their player projections and mock draft.  ESPN and it’s talented (?) Mr. Roto have Michael Turner at # 1 on their Top 200.  NFL.com has Adrian Peterson first and Matt Forte right behind.  The underrated Fox Sports has Michael Turner ahead of Peterson and Forte. 

It’s a tough call.  Last year Peterson led the league in yards but scored only 10 td’s.  Forte was second in yards, only 45 behind but scored 12 td’s.  Turner was third in yards but scored a league high 17 td’s.  All can make a case for # 1.

Still undecided, I broke down each of the player’s upcoming match ups this year.  I examined each player’s week 1-16 schedule and ranked each game as the potential to yield Average results, Better than average or Below average results.  Average results would be our baseline and Better than average would be a +1, Below Average would be a -1.  Here are my results:

Michael Turner – 11 games average, 3 better than average, 1 below average.   Final Score  +2

Adrian Peterson – 3 games average, 7 games better than average, 5 games below average.  Final Score +2

Matt Forte – 5 games average, 6 games better than average, 4 games below average. Final Score +2.

Still no separation between the top 3.

If all 3 players are virtually equal than we need to look at the match ups in weeks 14-16 which are the playoff weeks in fantasy football.  That will be our deciding factor amongst these 3.

Michael Turner – home against New Orleans and Buffalo, road at New York Jets.

Adrian Peterson – home against Cincinnati, on the road against Carolina and Chicago.

Matt Forte – home against Green Bay and Minnesota, on the road at Baltimore.

That’s what decides it.  I’ll take:

1. Michael Turner
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Matt Forte

 Loading ...

A fantasy football draft is intense.  You always have to be thinking two steps ahead of your opponents.  We’ve all been there.  Your pick is approaching and the “best” player available is someone that you know in your mind has question marks.  You are actually secretly hoping the guy in front of you selects that player so you don’t have to.  I always find it amazing the number of owners who draft players they don’t want on their team but their magazine or their cheat sheet says that’s the best player available.

That’s why I have come up with “10 players that I hope the guy before me drafts”.  These are all players who have had great seasons in the past and will go much higher than they should in most drafts.  These players look good on paper but won’t be playing for any of my teams this year.

Steven Jackson    RB    St. Louis

He has burned me not once, but twice, in the last two seasons.  He’s got all the talent to be a top 5 pick, someone in your league will make him one but I can’t go down this road again.  Poor team and previous groin injuries make me have to put him atop this list.

Brandon Jacobs   RB    NY Giants

Whenever I see him play, it’s jaw dropping how he carries defenders and grinds out those yards.  It’s amazing.  However, it’s a long season and he seems to not make it all the way through.  I need my team to be able to peak in weeks 14-16 and I can’t risk a first round pick on someone who most likely won’t be there at the end or is in a thunder and lightening platoon.

LaDainian Tomlinson   RB  San Diego

The 1st overall pick from last year is still going to go in the first round this year in most leagues.  I would rank him a low 2nd/ high 3rd round pick so let someone else grab him way too early and live to regret it.

Tom Brady    QB   New England

Some will say he has a better supporting cast than what he had 2 years ago when he set the fantasy world on fire.  Those numbers will be in alot of people’s minds come draft day.  Espn.com has him ranked #2 right now and some mock drafts have him as a late first round/ early 2nd round pick.  I don’t believe that.  Something doesn’t seem right and there’s no way the Patriots will play him in the preseason to get a look before draft day.  Plus, I don’t want any player where I need to turn to TMZ to get fantasy football information.  Stay clear.

Terrell Owens   WR   Buffalo

The theory is that T.O. plays well in the first year with a new team.  Well isn’t that special.  My theory is  to pass the popcorn and pass on T.O.  

Joseph Addai   RB  Indianapolis

Tough call here.  He has the talent.  Indianapolis is going to score.  Remember that 4 td game a few years ago?  I did and took him in the 2nd round last year in the World Series of Fantasy Football league where he managed to score 5  all season.  The Colts also took a running back in the first round this year so scratch Addai off your list now.

Matt Cassell    QB  Kansas City

Is Matt Cassell the next Tom Brady?  Someone in your league is going to think so.  I don’t.

Fred Taylor   RB  New England

The Patriots have Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney ( who may be cut ) , Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk.  In any given game Fred Taylor could score 3 td’s or be inactive.  It’s anyone’s guess with New England so let someone else in your league deal with that.

Cedric Benson  RB  Cincinnati

4 games a year against the Baltimore and Pittsburgh defenses.  No Thank You.

Antonio Gates

This future hall of famer is a monster when healthy.  His assortment of injuries cannot be ignored and like Tony Gonzalez, someone will take him much higher than he should.   Grab him if he slips out of the top 5 tight end’s otherwise stay clear.

Let us know what you think on the Contact page.

JC