Fantasy-Football-First

Archive for June, 2009

If the events of the past week has taught us anything, it’s that the way we get late breaking information has changed. Newspapers- that’s so last year. I cancelled my subscription  a long time ago. Local news -I watch it only for the weather and that’s just during a storm. When something happens like the death of the King of Pop last Thursday, people flock to the internet for information. I have heard stories of how people first heard the news through Twitter, Facebook, TMZ and informed their closest friends, family and followers within minutes.

When I found out, through my homepage on Yahoo, not once did I think to turn on the TV for information. As I continued to surf for information I became surprised by how many rumors and lies were circulating as well. There were reports of other celebrities dying and it became difficult to figure out the truth.

That got me thinking about these social networking sites being able to spread information so quickly.   But is that really a good thing?  It can be but I can also see where it can be harmful if the information is untrue.

In my old days of playing fantasy football, I did my research with a magazine from the supermarket and my lineup decisions from the injury report in Friday’s sports section. Not now, it’s all internet and most nfl players are on Facebook or Twitter or both. This year is going to be very interesting to watch from the stand point that this is the first year of fantasy football where we are going to get a lot of information from these social networking sites.   Players will tell us how they feel, how they will play and their injury status as well as what time they land at the airport and what restaurant they go to for dinner. 

Whether it’s accurate or not remains to be seen.

Let’s open this weeks Notebook:

• Dennis Northcutt was traded from Jacksonville to Detroit this week.  That hurts his chances of going to the playoffs but increases his value from a fantasy football prospective.  Last year he had 545 yards and 2 td’s.  Those numbers will improve with Detroit but think of him no more than a 4th WR, drafted only in the deepest of leagues.
• Word out of Arizona is that Chris “Beanie” Wells is behind schedule in learning the Cardinals system.  For the time being that has to please Tim Hightower owners.  The Arizona running back situation is too tough to predict at this point.  I would stay clear of both until we get a better handle on it.
• Still collecting unemployment checks are Jerry Porter and Marvin Harrison.  Very little interest out there for either.
• I had high hopes that NBC Sports, who wants to be a major sports website along the lines of CBS, Fox and Yahoo, came out with their fantasy football draft guide this week for $14.99 .  Hey NBC, we can get that same information from a dozen other sites for free.  I guess they need the cash to pay the 8 people on their Sunday Night pregame show.
• I heard that Miami may be interested in Michael Vick.  I don’t think he will play in the NFL at all this year but I would like to see him go to Cleveland.  Wouldn’t it be nice to see what happens if he was to leap into the Dawg Pound?

That’s it for this week’s Notebook.  Check out our RADIO page for our latest internet radio shows, follow us on Twitter or support us by purchasing something you need on our STORE page. 

JC

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As a long time fantasy football website reader, I always viewed the “mailbag” columns as kind of a sell out. Bill Simmons of Espn.com does it the best and all others fail in comparison. I view the mailbag column as the equivalent of ending your 20 minute presentation at the 5 minute mark and opening it up to questions hoping the audience will kill the rest of the time. I can see fantasy football writers sitting at their laptops trying to figure out what to write in June and saying “well I can always do another mailbag column”. Click on any of the websites in the Links section and you will see a bunch of “mailbag” columns which frustrates  me because there are no original ideas.

Then something happened.

I started my own fantasy football website, Internet radio show and Twitter account and quickly realized that people have legitimate questions and send them in. I was amazed. I thought sending in questions were confined to Dear Abby and Loveline but fantasy football seems to be in that same spectrum of people seeking out opinion.

With an apology  to Bill Simmons, I have officially sold out and will now open this week’s Mailbag for a little Q & A.

What do you think of drafting wide receivers with your first 2 picks while everyone else is drating running backs ? – A. Nonimus in Boston

That’s an interesting question and I have been surprised to read  some draft strategists have been in support of this theory if you have a late pick in the 1st round.  I know it’s frustrating  to have that late first round pick and see all the rb’s coming off the board and think that it may be best to grab the top wide receiver but I think that’s a poor move.  I have always said that you draft the best running back in the 1st round no matter what.  In the 2nd round you grab the best available player.  Not drafting a running back in the first 2 rounds leaves you too weak in the most important position in fantasy football.  There are too many quality wide receivers and not enough productive running backs.   To not draft a running back early you are making your team weaker and your opponent’s stronger in the running back department.  Draft a running back early and often is the strategy that I have seen win leagues.

What do you think Michael Crabtree will do this year? – Bob in San Fran

Ah, rookie wide receivers.  So tough to predict.  I usually shy away from rookie wide receivers as that position is the deepest in fantasy football but I did trade for and have success last year from Desean Jackson and Eddie Royal.  Most websites have Crabtree ranked in the 35-45 range with 800 yards and 5 td’s.  I think he is going to do a bit better than that due to getting the playing time and a favorable schedule and currently have him ranked 27 on my cheat sheet listed above and think he is good for about 850 yards and 8 td’s.  He is a good 3rd wide receiver at this point.

What do you think of Larry Johnson this year?  – Bill in Kansas City

Johnson has been all over the place in early mock drafts and preseason player rankings.  On the major websites I have seen him ranked as high as 21 and as low as 33 with projections ranging from 750 to 1,050 yards.  I am a bit higher on Johnson and currently have him ranked 19th on my RB Cheat Sheet.   1,000 yards and 7 td’s should be where his stats are.  I think K.C. will run the ball to take pressure off Matt Cassell who also likes to dump the ball to his running backs. 

I am in a 10 team league with the 5th pick.  It’s a Point Per Reception league.  Who should I be targeting with my first few picks?  – Matt in New Jersey

Although I don’t play in any PPR leagues I wouldn’t get too caught up in that and draft normally.  I might move someone like Maurice Jones-Drew up a notch and someone like Wes Welker who has many receptions but few touchdowns.  Nevertheless, you should be targeting the best available running back with the #5 pick and and then the best available rb/wr with your next few picks.  Save your quarterback for the middle rounds and load up on rb’s and wr’s.  Good Luck.

That’s it for the Q & A.   You can email us  or twitter us with any questions or comments and you will get a personal response. 

JC

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Earlier this week Chad Ochocinco of the Cincinnati Bengals came out and made the prediction that the Bengals would be going to the playoffs this season. Yes, those Bengals which won 4 games last year and play in the same division as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. All the major websites picked up the quote and ran it as a news story this week. Why?

Partly because it’s June and there is no other news out there. Partly because the Bengals are not going to make the playoffs so it’s a comical prediction. Partly because it’s Ochocinco who said it and the media likes making him look like a fool.

I like it though. I would be more concerned if a player came out in June and said his team wouldn’t make the playoffs. That’s the beauty of the NFL, it’s a league of parity and all you have to do is look at last year’s Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals to see that anything is possible.

So while I disagree with Ochocinco’s prediction, I admire his optimism and have a few predictions of my own to throw out there.

• The Atlanta Falcons will make the SuperBowl and lose to the New England Patriots.
• This year’s # 1 fantasy football player will be Steven Jackson.
• The Arizona Cardinals will score 60 points in a game.
• The Detroit Lions will improve to win 2 games this year.
• The Denver Broncos will implode, not make the playoffs and end up firing new head coach Josh McDaniels.

In June anything is possible and it took Chad Ochocinco to remind us of that.  Let’s open this week’s Notebook:

• I had doubts about the Brett Favre comeback until I watched his interview on Joe Buck Live this week.  He’s coming back and it’s a bad move for Minnesota to get involved in this.  I feel sorry for Sage Rosenfels who deserves a chance to start in the NFL.  Unfortunately this will play out like a soap opera over the next few months.
• Speaking of Joe Buck Live, I did get a chance to watch the episode that everyone is talking about in which Artie Lange took over the last 10 minutes of the show.  The show turned into a bad Comedy Central Roast which made for a few laughs but more groans.  I cannot fault Lange for anything he did or said, he was trying to be shockingly funny.  I put the blame on Joe Buck for having this train wreck of a show put together without a true vision of what it was supposed to be.  He tried to be funny with comedy bits of looking through a telescope to look into people’s apartments and he booked comedic actors and a raunchy stand up comedian as guests.  It wasn’t funny except for a few minutes of Lange and you should applaud Lange for that and put the blame on Joe Buck.
• It would be nice for the NFL channel to embrace fantasy football and have an actual fantasy football program on a daily basis.  

That’s all we have in this week’s Notebook.  A new internet radio show is archived on the Radio page above.  It was a good show this week as we touched on some running back rankings and found a few potential sleepers.  We are also now on Twitter at www.twitter.com/FantasyF.

JC

Today is Father’s Day.  A day of honoring and remembering your experiences with your father and/or being honored if you are a father.  In my case, I am lucky that it’s both.  Some say being a mother is the toughest job there is and if that’s true then being a father is right up there.  There are no instructions that come with the birth of a child, no owner’s manual or Geek Squad to have things running smoothly.  It’s on the job training, 24/7, 365 days a year.  The father/son relationship never ends, is always evolving and can be one of  the most rewarding things that I can think of.

So on this day of honoring and remembering, I am reminded of the first time I learned about what has become a true passion and hobby of mine and that is fantasy football.

It was about 25 years ago when my Dad came up to me, a pre teenager, and showed me stacks of typed papers that had a bunch of football player’s names and point totals.  I was intrigued.  Back then there was no Internet, web sites, excel spreadsheets.   It was typed paper and lots of pages.  He explained that a group of coworkers formed a group and were going to participate in something called fantasy football.  It sounded cheesy, sort of like people who play Dungeons and Dragons but I wanted to learn more.  I read the papers and learned the point totals for certain events like a running touchdown and field goals.  Each week I would look forward to seeing the league reports and following the progress of my Dad’s team.  It was a way to bond and a way to learn fantasy football without playing.

That league is still together to this day even though most members have retired and moved to different states.  I admired that commitment and when I formed my own league with a group of college buddies in my mid 20′s, I spoke of my Dad’s league and the longevity and asked for the same type of commitment.  This year marks our 13th anniversary with very little turnover through the years.  Maybe one day in about 20 years my son will follow along the same lines.

I hope he does because it’s not just just about scoring touchdowns and drafting sleepers.  It’s about being part of a group, enjoying the experience and having fun. 

Last year I went to visit my Dad on Sunday of week 1 and my wife witnessed my Dad and I talking about our fantasy football teams and made the comment “like father, like son”.

I wouldn’t have it any other way. My wife, although very understanding, wishes maybe my Dad brought home a cookbook 25 years ago.

Fantasy-Football-First is now on Twitter!  You can follow us at www.twitter.com/FantasyF .  Feel free to tweet us your fantasy football questions and comments.  We will use Twitter to give frequently updated fantasy football information and opinion.  Get a behind the scenes look of Fantasy-Football-First by following us on Twitter.  You can link to us on Twitter by clicking on the Twitter widget on the right hand side of the page.

I just completed my first fantasy football draft of the year. It was the Fantasy Football Open Championship at www.ffoc.com. It’s an interesting concept. They crown one million dollar winner. You start in a 10 team league and go head to head for the first half of the season. In addition to the head to head, if you finish in the top half of your league each week in points then you get a win and if you finish in the bottom half you get a loss. After the first half of the season, the league winners move into a winner’s bracket and then each week a certain percentage move on and the rest get moved into loser’s brackets. Ultimately there will be 1 winner of the million dollars.

In these types of leagues, everything has to go your way in order to do well. You are competing against thousands of teams so you need to view it as if your draft is pretty much a lottery and it’s going to take a lot of luck to succeed. There’s no trades so the draft is very important.

The fun for this type of thing is that on Sunday when you watch SportsCenter and see a certain QB throw 4 td’s and 400 yards, a RB run for 150 yards and 3 scores, a WR go for 100 yards and score 3 td’s, a TE go for 100 yards and 2 td’s, a field goal kicker kick 5 FG’s and wonder what it would be like to have all of them on your team, someone in the league will. People take it seriously because you have to pay money to join which is another reason to like participating in this league.

I had the 1st pick of the draft in this 10 team league and selected Michael Turner. Adrian Peterson went 2nd and Maurice Jones-Drew 3rd which I have been seeing more of lately. Matt Forte 4th and Drew Brees a surprising 5th. Larry Fitzgerald 8th and Tom Brady 10th so I was shocked 3 of the top 10 picks were not running backs. At the end of the 2nd round I took Reggie Wayne and to start the 3rd round Phillip Rivers.

Some interesting things to note from this draft experience is that Brandon Jacobs, who I have ranked # 10 on my RB cheat sheet fell to the 4th round. Knowshon Moreno was the first rookie taken and he went in the 5th round. Michael Crabtree was the second rookie and he was selected, by me, in the 8th round. Shonn Greene was the only other rookie drafted in the first 10 rounds.

The potential downside of having your draft in June is that one or more of my players could get hurt before the season starts but the upside is that right now I am sitting on a possible million dollar lineup so I have that going for me which is nice.

JC

The main websites I use for research are the ones listed to the right in the Links section.  These are the websites I go to for information and opinion.  This week I came across an article and it caused me to scratch my head.  The article called out Reggie Wayne.  Yes, the Reggie Wayne that I have ranked #2 on my Wide Receiver cheat sheet.  The article called Wayne “the worst Peyton Manning # 1 wide receiver ever”. 

Hmm.  Harsh words.  So harsh it made me go back and look at Wayne again to make sure I had him properly ranked.  Now I know the statement is a little unfair because it’s basically comparing Marvin Harrison in his prime to Reggie Wayne  currently.  With Harrison off the roster, this is the year for Wayne to be the true # 1 not only on the field but also in the locker room. 

Let’s look at some numbers.   Wayne did have a bit of a down year last year compared to 2007 and that is a concern for a wide receiver now in his 30′s.  His yards were down 300+ and his TD’s were 4 less.  If someone  took Wayne last year high in their draft, I can see why they would be sour.  However, Wayne’s numbers over the last 5 years are stunning.  He has 5 straight seasons over 1,000 yards and 110 consecutive starts.  That’s consistency at a high level.  He also has more yards receiving in the last 5 seasons than anyone else.

I think Wayne is going to have a huge season for an Indianapolis offense that is going to be passing a lot.  So while some columnists are writing articles about Wayne being the worst # 1 wide receiver Peyton Manning has ever had, I think he has been the best #2 wide receiver and primed to be a great # 1 this year.

Let’s open this week’s Notebook:

• I added a new website to my Links section.  It’s called Fantasy Football Calculator and it gives you the ADP ( average draft position ) of players being drafted in fantasy football leagues over the last few days.  For example, over the last 3 days they have looked at the drafts of 613 fantasy leagues and ranked the average draft position for each player.   I think it’s an interesting site to monitor because you can get a feel for how your draft might go.  A few things stand out to me based on these completed drafts so far.  LaDanian Tomlinson’s ADP is # 7.  People are not giving up on him although most of the major website cheat sheets are.  Another interesting thing is that Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Randy Moss are all top 12 picks.   That goes against my theory to always draft a Running Back with your first pick no matter what.
• Brandon Marshall is holding out of the Denver Bronco’s mandatory mini camp.  There will be many hold out stories over the next few months.  I don’t get too excited over these things unless it’s mid August and could threaten the start of the season.
• Michael Vick has officially been released by the Falcons which allows him to sign with any team while awaiting word if he will be suspended.  This will start up the “where will Vick go” articles on the major websites which are always good for a yawn.
• The Minnesota Vikings are monitoring Brett Favre’s workouts while Favre’s family are booking hotel rooms in Minnesota.  Another yawn.

Short Notebook this week but check back often for future columns.  We also have 2 internet radio shows in the archives on the Radio page and check out our Store page for a lot of great fantasy football items.

JC

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Everyone loves sleepers. That player you pick in your draft where someone yells out “ooh, good pick” or you see people reaching for the magazines to read up on your off the chart selection. Fantasy football sleepers, by definition, are players that you get better results than originally predicted. These are players that you think are going to be a steal for you in your drafts.

Last year was a great year for sleepers. Matt Cassel was the #7 overall fantasy player and he most likely did not get drafted in your league. The top 3 running backs last year were DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Thomas Jones and none of them were consensus top 10 picks. Identifying potential sleepers in your draft is important because it’s like playing with the house’s money in Vegas, it makes you feel better and makes up for the disappointment if you have some highly  drafted players that are under performing.

Here is my list of 7 SLEEPERS that you shouldn’t get caught napping on. These players are all predicted to go in the later rounds of fantasy football drafts but i believe are going to perform much better than anticipated.

• Matt Hasselbeck    QB   Seattle

             Hasselbeck was injured most of last season but appears to be full strength heading into this season.  In 2007 he threw for almost 4,000 yards with 28 TD’s and there is no reason to think he can’t repeat those numbers with the signing of TJ Houshmanzadeh and a healthy receiving group.

• Chris Henry   WR      Cincinnati

              Henry’s off the field issues have been well documented and last season  the Bengals did not really want to count on him so they left him out of the game plan.  The result was only 19 catches in 12 games.  This year he will start the season as the 3rd wide receiver and will be ranked so low on most people’s cheat sheets that he could go undrafted in most leagues.  He’s got the tools, let’s see if he can put it together on the field for a team that should be passing a lot this season.

• Julius Jones    RB    Seattle

             Jones is the starting running back for a team that has one of the easiest schedules against the run this year.  7 of his first 13 games are against the run defenses of St. Louis, Detroit, San Francisco and Arizona.  If he starts the season # 1 on Seattle’s running back depth chart than he is going to provide some very nice production.

• Martellus Bennett     TE      Dallas

              I remember watching him on Hard Knocks and unsure if he was ever going to catch on.  4 of his 20 catches last year were TD’s and I can see him doubling that production this year.   He is too talented for Dallas to not have him on the field.  He isn’t a #1 tight end yet but he will be.

• David Garrard     QB     Jacksonville

             It’s hard to put last year’s #10 fantasy points producer on a sleepers list but the fact remains that Garrard does not get much fantasy respect.  He adds Torry Holt to the mix this year and has dropped 20 pounds.   His 15 td’s total last year hurts him but I like his chances to be in the 20-25 td range this year.  

• Brandon Stokely    WR       Denver

             New Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels envisions Stokely’s role to be Wes Welker like.   Health is a concern but there is some upside potential here.

• Donnie Avery       WR     St. Louis

             Torry Holt is gone so Avery moves up the depth chart.  The Rams look to have a more healthy balanced attack this year so Avery should improve on his modest rookie numbers of last season.

I love standard fantasy football drafts. I also love fantasy football auctions. Each one has its own appeal to it. Standard drafts are traditional and most of us participate in the standard format. Auctions, or salary cap leagues, involve more strategy and and gives everyone a chance to get a certain player depending on who the highest bidder is. It can also be the most frustrating if you spend all your money too early. I wonder if there is any way to combine the standard draft and auction to the same fantasy football league? That would seem euphoric.

Yes, there is.

Fifteen years ago, myself and 11 other people formed a league called 12 Angry Men. The league is still together to this day. Over the last 15 years, we have all changed in some way. All have gotten married, some multiple times. All have had children, again some multiple times. Some have packed on the pounds and others have lost a lot of hair. A few unfortunate ones have packed on the pounds and lost the hair. But one thing has remained a constant and that is on the last Saturday of August we all meet in Baltimore,  Maryland for our fantasy football draft. Occasionally a wife or girlfriend will try to disrupt our tradition by wanting one of us to attend a friends wedding or have a child’s birthday party  but the 12 Angry Men have always prevailed. It’s set in stone, the only constant in a world of change.

Five years ago we discussed whether we should change our league from a standard fantasy football draft to an auction. It was a very heated debate in which email boxes were filled and friendships put to the test. When it went to a vote, the results were 6-6. We then tried to find a way to do both and either satisfy or disappoint everyone equally.

We created a league in which we would have 20 rounds. The first 10 are of the auction format, the last 10 is a standard draft. To add some flair to the last 10 rounds we determined that anyone drafted in the last 10 rounds can be kept for the following 2 years ( 3 players max can be kept ). So we combined a standard draft and auction and threw in a bit of a dynasty league and created the ultimate fantasy football league and we love it to this day.

The first 10 rounds operate as an auction draft with a 100 dollar salary cap. That means anyone can have Adrian Peterson this year, it all depends on how much of that 100 you are willing to put on one player. A few years ago I made a huge mistake in using most of my money to buy 2 players, Steven Jackson and Sean Alexander. Jackson got hurt and Alexander fell off the face of the earthand it was a long year. That’s what happens when you don’t budget correctly .

Rounds 11-20 operate as a standard draft. All the players drafted in these rounds are potential 2 year “keepers” so this is where you need to think about drafting a player that may be able to help you in future years. 2 years ago I drafted Michael Turner in the 11th round knowing that he will become a free agent and become a starter and it paid off big time for me last year.

The downside is that the free fantasy football draft sites don’t have the ability to have a live online draft switching formats in the middle of the draft. But if you use a website where you manually enter the players in then you will have no problem. We use www.myfantasyleague.com and love the site.

So if your league is having the debate on whether to be a standard fantasy league or an auction league, I say do both.

JC

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A caller into our first internet radio show asked a question that a lot of us struggle with if we have a late pick in the first round of our fantasy football drafts.  The caller has the 10th pick in a 14 team league and his concern is that “all the good running backs” will be gone by the 10th pick so he is thinking of selecting a QB at the 10th pick and then picking up a RB with the 19th pick and wanted to know if I thought it was a good idea.

I didn’t think it was a good idea on the radio show and after thinking about it afterwards I still don’t.  A 14 team league is a deep league and the running back position is already going to be spread thin with a total of 28 running backs starting each week.  Running backs are the key to fantasy football and you can’t be successful without consistent production from each of your starters. 

If I was in his shoes, I would be thinking RB at  his 10th pick and 19th pick as he would have the chance to start two top 20 running backs each week and many teams in his league won’t be able to do that.  Quarterbacks can be picked up in the middle rounds and you will still get a top 14 quarterback.  Balance and depth is the key, especially in these deep leagues.  I know it can be stressful to watch all the running backs come off the board so fast in these drafts, that just tells you how important the position is.

Now let’s open this week’s Notebook:

• Philadelphia running back Brian Westbrook is now Questionable for the start of training camp because he is undergoing ankle surgery.  It has to be frustrating for Eagles fans to have this done in June at the end of the off season.  I wasn’t high on Westbrook this year, I had him ranked lower than most at #12 in the RB rankings.  This certainly doesn’t help.  I view this as significant enough to update my Running Back rankings and I moved Westbrook from #12 to 16, no longer is he a #1 running back.  That also means that his back up, rookie LeSean McCoy, enters the top 50 at # 48.
• Word out of Chicago is that Matt Forte had a slight injury and is having a MRI test.  Right now it doesn’t appear serious. 
• Cleveland head coach Eric Mangini says the starting QB position is up for grabs between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson.  They call Mangini the “genius” but I don’t see it after the way he let the Jets team crumble behind an ineffective Brett Favre last year.  I would be shocked if Brady Quinn isn’t starting week 1.
• Matt Hasselbeck has been “looking good” in recent practices.  I always love these type of stories because I can never find the ones about players looking bad.  I do believe Hasselbeck can have a really good year.  7 of his first 13 games are against the defenses of Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis and Detroit.  If healthy, Hasselbeck could be a steal this year.

That’s it for this week’s Notebook.  I am going to do another internet radio show today at 2pm EST as the last show ended way too early.  You can listen live by clicking on the Blog Talk Radio button on the side of this page or archived shows on the Radio page of this site.

JC

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