Fantasy-Football-First

Archive for July, 2009

I have to give Pittsburgh Steelers  fans a lot of credit. They are everywhere and I mean everywhere. I have travelled the country and sat on Sunday afternoon bar stools from Seekonk, Massachusetts to Seattle, Washington and came across a Terrible Towel. I have sweat in Key West, Florida and Cancun, Mexico on a hangover Sunday and watched people sing songs after touchdowns while wearing their Bettis jerseys. Turn on any Steeler away game and watch the sea of black and gold in the stands. It’s awesome.

And before Directv, sickening.

Now they don’t bother me as my living room outside Atlanta, Georgia is tuned into my New England Patriots or Red Zone channel but in years past that wasn’t the case and I would have to go to the old sports bars in hopes of watching my games. I have been able to separate myself from the Steeler fans that would show up in droves to these sports bars and get their games on the big screen while I would get pushed down into a corner or sometimes not even get my game on.

I have moved on and learned to deal with my hate, or is it jealousy, for the Steeler fans. I thought of you this week when I read that the NFL is changing the draft. Steeler fans love to drink, hang out in large groups and wear their jerseys. The NFL draft gives them the perfect excuse for a draft party. Now the NFL has messed that all up for the Steeler fans draft parties. They are spreading it out over 3 days and making it totally inconvenient for anyone on the West Coast. Their reasoning is that more people will get to watch the draft.  Anyone with a brain realizes it’s just a way to get more hits to nfl.com as half the country will be forced to watch the first round from work on their computers.

On the other hand, Steeler fans can now party for 3 straight days while the rest of us just try to follow along. Let’s open this week’s Notebook:

• ESPN just posted their most recent mock draft.  LaDanian Tomlinson went #3 overall.  Tom Brady was the #1 quarterback.  I love it when people show up to drafts with last years magazines.  I expect better out of you ESPN.
• Brett Favre’s decision is expected by Friday.  Come on Minnesota, what are you doing with this?  Didn’t you see how Favre cost the Jet’s their season last year?  Am I the only one who thinks Sage Rosenfels is better than Favre at this point? 
• Michael Vick is not worth drafting in any formats.  I do not see the possibilty of any productive numbers this year.
• I am concerned about the possible holdouts of Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall.

With training camps opening this week, it’ll be good to get past the Favre and Vick stories and read about things more exciting like ACL’s.

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I like reality television. I like Hard Knocks on HBO. I want to like the T.O. Show. I have never been a Terrell Owens fan, I would build my team with the Wes Welker’s of the world, but I do like good television so I sat down wanting something. Something could be to laugh, learn something, chuckle, anything entertaining. I knew in the intro it was going to be a long hour.

Here’s my journal recapping all the action:

0:00 Terrell Owens, sometimes referred to as T.O. or in the third person as simply T, starts the show by mentioning ” You may know me as the most dominating force in football “.

REALITY – That’s not what I know you as T. I know you as someone that’s always on ESPN either crying, being cut, holding out, throwing a temper tantrum on the sidelines, or dropping a lot of passes last season.

0:01 T.O. just learned that he was cut by Dallas. He’s upset. Even though it appears this scene was taped much after it actually happened, you could tell his pride is hurt.

REALITY – Remember this minute because it’s the only one of this episode worth watching.

0:02 Total count so far of T.O.’s “friends” that are on his payroll is up to 3.

REALITY – You usually don’t have to 1099 a friend.

0:06 – One of T.O.’s publicists offers up the comparison between being released from the Cowboys and being released from jail as two places that are a “nice place to be”.

REALITY – Turks and Caicos is a nice place to be. The two that she mentioned, not so much.

0:13 T.O. emerges and announces that he is going to Buffalo.

REALITY – You know those fake smiles and applause you see from the loser’s at awards shows? This group aren’t that good as actors.

0:24 We reach a new reality show low when Pablo, T.O.’s bodyguard/friend, passes gas in the car.

REALITY – Usually farts are funny, on the T.O. Show, not so much. Might want to keep Pablo away from the wings in Buffalo.

0:26 T.O. buys some earrings. He makes sure we know they are $137,000.

REALITY – Reminded of a recent article in SI about how so many NFL players go bankrupt. Now how does that happen?

0:31 We get to witness his two publicists tell us how Terrell is different from T.O.

REALITY – Are either of them going to score more than 6 td’s this season?

0:38 His real estate agent shows up for a date. Shocker, she brought a bathing suit.

REALITY – Do you get your security deposit back if it’s your real estate agent that causes the stains?

0:56 The show ends with T.O. at his ex-fiance’s house for reasons unknown.

REALITY – The only person in the show who comes across as being intelligent is the one person who dumped T.O. Hmmm.

Not sure what Buffalo has here. No question he’s in shape physically. I have always stayed clear of T.O. on my fantasy teams and will do the same this year.   I can’t wait for the games to start.

Each week ESPN the Magazine and Sports Illustrated find their way into my mailbox and eventually end up getting read in my “special” office. What an early surprise I got this week to open my mailbox and see Fantasy Football being featured on the cover of ESPN the Magazine. It’s the middle of July. It’s the equivalent of being allowed to open a Christmas present at Thanksgiving. Indeed I was happy.

I no longer buy Fantasy Football magazines and you shouldn’t either. It’s a waste of money to get outdated information. Do your research on the internet, print out some cheat sheets and keep the 7.95 in your pocket. However, I do enjoy the preview issues of both ESPN and SI. It gives me a chance to read what the so called experts are thinking.

So let’s take a look at some of the highlights of their Player Rankings:

• At Running Back I would agree with their top 10 picks as it’s the same as my Cheat Sheet.  We have slight differences in the exact rankings of some of the players but the top 10 are the same.
• At Quarterback we agree on 9 of the top 10 picks with the only difference being I have Matt Cassell in the top 10 and they have Matt Schaub.
• At Wide Receiver we once again agree on 9 of the top 10 picks with the only difference being I have Marques Colston and they have Terrell Owens.
• At Tight End we amazingly agree on 9 of the top 10 picks with the only difference being I have Kevin Boss and they have Zach Miller.

I am feeling pretty good  as my top 10 rankings are virtually identical to Espn the Magazine because not only did I put my rankings out over a month earlier but I did not charge anyone for that information.

We do have some glaring differences though.  Let’s list some:

• Quarterbacks:  They are high on Tom Brady and have him at #2 while I am concerned and have him # 7.  I am higher on Marc Bulger at # 19 while they have him at # 28.
• Running Backs :  I am much higher on Ryan Grant, #12, while they have him at #19. 
• Wide Receivers:  I like Reggie Wayne a lot at # 2 while they have him lower at #7.   

We agree on 37 of the top 40 players.  Not bad.  If anyone from ESPN would like to bring me on board, I can be had for pennies on the dollar.

Other highlights from their Fantasy Football preview issue:

• The Talented Mr. Roto agrees with me that Michael Turner should be the #1 pick.
• Andre Johnson faces the easiest Cornerbacks to beat this season.  Lee Evans # 2.
• DeAngelo Williams will not repeat last season’s numbers.
• Tom Brady is close to 100%.
• Thomas Jones should score more td’s this season.
• Joe Flacco should have a good year.

And then it happened.  The love affair between us here at www.fantasy-football-first.com and Espn the Magazine came to an end.

On the last page they talk about draft strategy and what to do if you have the last pick of your draft.  They are encouraging a new theory that I have read about on other websites where they advise to bypass the selecting of a Running Back and drafting the top 2 Wide Receivers.  It’s called the WR-WR theory.  As evidence they took a look at the last 7 years of drafts and have determined that a team that went RB-RB with the last pick of their draft scored 69 points less than a team that went WR-WR with their first 2 picks.

69 points over 7 years.  That’s 9.85 points a year or 0.61 points a week.  That’s pretty much even to me and if you take out the freakish year Randy Moss had in 2007 then the numbers swing the other way.

I see some flaws in their theory.  First of all, it assumes you will have the top 2 Wide Receivers available when it comes to your last pick of the first round.  Usually someone will draft a wide receiver before then.  Second, it assumes in their numbers that the top 2 WR’s each year were  the 2 that you selected.

I advise against this theory and always suggest to draft running backs early and often in standard scoring drafts.  If you don’t draft a running back someone else will so not only does that make you weaker at the running back position but it makes your opponents stronger.   You can crunch numbers to make things look any way you want them to.  Fantasy football is not an exact science.   I only know one theory.

Running Backs win fantasy football championships.  – JC

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Is this a great country or what?  Yes, I know we are in the middle of a recession with staggering unemployment, 401k’s half of what they were two years ago, house values down 50% if you are lucky and social security about to run out. Heck, even million dollar athletes ( Lenny Dykstra and Bernie Kosar this week) are standing in line down at the county court house filing those bankruptcy papers.

But this is America, the land of opportunity, and you could be at rock bottom like on the verge of being cut last preseason and then on top of the world today signing a 60 million dollar contract. Don’t tell the folks in Kansas City there is a recession. They just gave Matt Cassell 60 million dollars and front loaded it with guaranteed money that there is no way they can back pedal out of it if he turns out to be the one hit wonder many are predicting him to be.

We all know the story by now. Matt Cassell who never started a college game somehow gets drafted by the Patriots, rides the bench for a few years, almost gets cut last August, gets pushed into action by Tom Brady’s injury and now is on top of the world. But beware fantasy owners, not so fast penciling him into your lineup.

Cassell’s long term contract shows that the Chiefs are believing that last season wasn’t a fluke. There are many things to like from watching Cassell develop last season. He did seem to get better as the season progressed. He won his last 4 games, 3 of which were on the road. He had back to back 400 yard weeks and won many leagues last year as a waiver wire pickup. On the downside was the fact that he took a team that went 16-0 the prior season and went 10-5 as a starter and missing the playoffs. The Patriots did not open the playbook for him for nearly 2 months and he had trouble with the long ball and instead would look for the quick pass to the running back. He finished with 21 td’s and 10 int’s. Not sure I would break the bank for those numbers.

What can we expect this year? Is he the answer to Kansas City’s recent problems or just an extension of them? I am concerned that there will be a drop off. I am concerned about the difference in system as well as nobody that can catch the short pass in the backfield. I have Cassell ranked as a low #1 / high # 2 quarterback. Proceed with caution.

Let’s open this week’s NoteBook:

• Derrick Mason of the Baltimore Ravens shockingly retired.  He had 80 catches for 1,037 yard and 5 scores last year.  He was listed as # 2 on the Ravens depth chart and # 39 in my top 50 wide receivers cheat sheet.  As a result Mark Clayton’s value goes up, Joe Flacco’s goes down and Demetrius Williams becomes a late round pick in very deep leagues.
• San Francisco said this week that they will decide who their starting quarterback is by the 3rd preseason game.  Shaun Hill and Alex Smith are battling it out.  Whomever emerges will have a short leash on a bad team and thus both players should be avoided for now.
• Heard of the Curse of TMZ ?  Probably not as I just made it up but the theory is that whomever TMZ is following around prior to the season will get hurt early in the season.  It started last year with Tom Brady and this year it could be Tony Romo.   It’s never good when your quarterback is constantly in the tabloids.  Dallas, you can’t be pleased with this attention.  I am sensing some sort of a groin pull. 

The last few internet radio shows have been fun.  Check out the archives on the RADIO page above. -JC

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Here we are in the early part of July and all the web sites have their fantasy football information up and running. Even the fine folks at Espn.com took a break from writing about fantasy baseball to give us a new football article this week. The fantasy football season is fast approaching and all thoughts are centering on the important question of “Who am I going to get with my first pick?”

The first pick is your franchise player. The player you don’t have to worry about. He is going to start for you every week and you will sweat his bye week. He is going to be your most consistent player, your top scorer, your MVP.

If only fantasy football was that easy.

Every year there is that one player that was in every one’s top 10 ranking that doesn’t come close to living up to that standard and single handedly ruins fantasy football teams. Last year it was Tom Brady who was out for the season before the first Miller Lite commercial. The year before it was Steven Jackson and the year before that it was Sean Alexander. While we cannot predict injuries, history does show us that no pick, even those taken in the first round, are sure safe picks.

Let’s take a look at the consensus top 10 picks and see if we can find a reason for alarm on why they might not live up to their billing. 

     Adrian Peterson

Peterson played 16 games last year, the first time he has played all his team’s games since a freshman in college.  His first 2 years in the NFL have been remarkable but his yards per carry and touchdowns did go down slightly last year.  Durability and injuries appear to be the only thing to slow him down and he was injury free last year.  Does that mean he is due for an injury this year?

     Maurice Jones-Drew

MJD is being counted on to be the every day back this year for Jacksonville as opposed to being in a timeshare the past few seasons.  While his total yards and touchdowns are impressive, MJD has never had 1,000 yard rushing in his first three seasons.  Is he going to be just as effective in his new role?

     Michael Turner

I like Michael Turner a lot.  I drafted him in my dynasty league 4 years ago and knew that if given the chance he would put up the great numbers he did last season.  I have him ranked # 1 in my RB rankings.  But he is not immune to the question marks.  He had 376 carries last season and history has shown us that the following year there is a huge drop off for anyone over 370.  Is he a one year wonder?   Was he overworked last season?

     Matt Forte

He had a very impressive rookie season last year.  His numbers should have potential owners ranking him very high this season.  Did Forte hit a wall last year?  He rushed for less than 75 yards in his final four games.  Those are playoff weeks in fantasy football.

     Steven Jackson

Steven Jackson could very well end up as the top running back in football this season.  In fact I have thought that the past two seasons when I have made him my first round pick.  I have been burned twice by a combination of nagging injuries or the fact that he plays on a team so poor they abandon the run.  He has played 12 games each of the last two seasons.  Do you feel lucky on a 16 game season this year?

     Chris Johnson

The fastest  runner in the league without a doubt and one of the biggest surprises last year.  This year he is a consensus top 10 pick so the pressure is on.  He had 20+ carries in a game just once last season and his four 100+ yards rushing games were against Detroit, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Cleveland.  Can he carry the ball 20+ times a game and perform against a tougher schedule?

     LaDanian Tomlinson

There is no question that Tomlinson is a Hall of Famer and still a productive running back.  The question is whether he is worthy of being your first round pick.  He is entering his 9th year in the league and celebrated his 30th birthday.  He is also coming off lows in attempts, yards rushing and touchdowns while his team seems to love his back up Darren Sproles.  Many questions here.

     Larry Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald does seem to put up numbers worthy of a first round pick.  Will that continue for a third year in a row this season?  How will his value be effected by whether Anquan Boldin holds out, stays or gets traded?

     Deangelo Williams

Last years surprise is still a man in a time share at running back.  His numbers can be sick in certain games but having your running backs touchdowns taken away from him by a “short yardage specialist” will make fantasy owners sick.

     Andre Johnson

I wouldn’t pick Johnson in the first round of the draft but he is at # 10 based on the web sites I use to form a consensus.  Johnson has never had more than 8 td’s in a season.  Maybe 2nd or 3rd round but not 1st.

 
At least one of these ten players will ruin someone’s fantasy team this year.  Which one?

Check back in December.

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