Fantasy-Football-First

Archive for November, 2009

John Charles Last Week: 8-8
John Charles Thanksgiving Games: 3-0
John Charles Season: 91-70-2 ( 56.5% )

Readers Last Week: 8-8
Readers Thanksgiving Games: 1-2
Readers Season: 85-76-2 ( 52.7% )

With so many football fans travelling this week, I thought I would mention a hidden gem in the NFL television world. If you have Directv’s NFL Ticket, you are allowed to download the Supercast from Directv to your computer. That allows you to watch all the games, including the Red Zone channel, on your computer. Maybe I am late to this as I just discovered it a few weeks ago when faced with being on the road in a hotel on a Sunday. What I discovered was that I could bounce around from game to game because they show you where the ball is with each game.

I mentioned it to a few friends and some didn’t know they had the ability to do that. One said he gave his login information to his father who didn’t have Directv and he was able to watch all the games from their computer. One even mentioned being on a plane that had wi fi and watching all the games. Now my whole Sunday viewing has been changed. I have my game or the Red Zone Channel on my big screen and the Supercast on my laptop and it surely beats those days when I had to find a sports bar and hope they would put the games on that I wanted to watch.

Now on to the picks.

Everything went according to plan on Thanksgiving. I finished the day 3-0 so we have some Swagger going into Sunday. It also gets me back to over 20 games over .500 which is a nice place to be. It’s important to take it one game at a time, stay within ourselves and to give it at least 110%.

Let’s do this.

Indianapolis at Houston ( +3 )

I am starting to think that Indianapolis might be underrated. They’re 10-0 and many “experts” that I read called for them to lose to New England. A few more called for them to then lose last week at Baltimore. Now, for the third week in a row, those same “experts” are calling for them to lose to Houston. I don’t think any team is going to go undefeated this season so that means they will lose eventually but I don’t see that this week. Peyton Manning is putting together a MVP season and until he lets me down I am going to back him. I’ll push the field goal in what is going to be a very high scoring game. Take Indianapolis.

Cleveland at Cincinnati ( -14 )

I’m not a big fan of pushing double digit point spreads in division contests. But I am also not a fan of anything that Cleveland is doing. They did show some offensive spark last week but it was against Detroit so it’s tough to say how that will play against Cincinnati. I would stay away from this game if you can, but if you must, and I must, I am taking the better team playing at home. Take Cincinnati.

Chicago at Minnesota ( -11 )

Minnesota’s job is to win this game Sunday and then root all out for New England to beat New Orleans Monday night. They want a number 1 seed and might end up getting it. Another double digit spread in a division contest and I hate to do it again but I am pushing the points. Take Minnesota.

Washington at Philadelphia ( -9 )

The Rock Cartwright era has begun in Washington. Both teams will struggle running the ball which means this should come down to passing and special teams. Both of those areas favor the Eagles big. Take Philadelphia.

Miami at Buffalo ( -3 )

These two teams played 2 months ago in a game Miami won big. So what’s so different this time? Miami lost Ronnie Brown and Terrell Owens is starting to show up again. Although I think the margin of victory will be a lot less this time, I am going with the team that has more to play for. Take Miami.

Arizona at Tennessee ( -3 )

Tennessee has won 4 in a row since Vince Young took over after starting 0-6. Tennessee is currently 12th in the AFC playoff hunt but it is possible that if they win this game, they could end the weekend as high as 8th. They have confidence and it’s an amazing story. However, Arizona is no slouch and they have won 3 in a row and are a perfect 5-0 on the road this season. Kurt Warner is the key here. As of this writing it appears he will play and if he does, Tennessee’s amazing comeback story ends. This is not a good match up for the Titans as they have a hard time defending the deep pass which is Arizona’s specialty. Arizona wins this game outright in an Upset that is not really an Upset Pick. Take Arizona.

Seattle at St. Louis ( + 3 )

Something has to give in this game. Seattle is 0-5 on the road and St. Louis is 0-5 at home. St. Louis has played well the past few weeks but that was with Marc Bulger. He’s out and it’s Kyle Boller time. Seattle was a sleeper team for me in the preseason and I can’t believe they have a record this poor. Seattle beat St. Louis back in Week 1 28-0. I am going with the team that I think is better. Take Seattle.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta ( -12.5 )

This is the most confusing line of the week. I would think Atlanta would be a 6-8 point favorite but 12.5? Atlanta has only beaten Washington in the last 5 weeks. Granted they play much better at home and this is a home game. I live in Atlanta and I can tell you that the people of Atlanta don’t trust this team. This line is so confusing to me that I am going to take the points. Take Tampa Bay.

Carolina at NY Jets ( – 3 )

Both teams enter the contest 4-6 and on life support in regards to their playoff chances. Vegas has slapped the 3 point home favorite spread on this game so they view each of these teams as equal. It’s going to be a battle of running backs and I’ll take DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart over Thomas Jones any day of the week. If you want to give me 3 points, I’ll take them and call this my Upset Pick of the Week. Take Carolina.

Jacksonville at San Francisco ( -3 )

Another 3 point home favorite line. If the season ended today, Jacksonville would be in the playoffs. Seriously. They are ahead of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston right now. San Francisco is 4-6 but they have played some good teams tough so they are much better than their record. A tough game to call. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won. With all that said, I’ll take the points. Take Jacksonville.

San Diego at Kansas City ( + 13.5 )

These two teams played just 4 weeks ago and San Diego won that game by 30. Not much has changed in the past month so you would have to assume a similar outcome. Maybe not 30 but I’ll take half of that. This is my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week. Take San Diego.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore ( -2.5 )

Both teams are in a battle for a playoff spot and the loser of this game is really on the outside looking in. As Paris Hilton would say, this game is huuuuuuge. There’s a Steeler bar not far from where the Ravens play called the Purple Goose Saloon. I used to go there occasionally when I lived in Baltimore. The bar would open at 11am on Sundays but the parking lot would be full by 9am with tailgaters. I love Steeler fans. I went to a wedding once in Pittsburgh and people were tailgating the church parking lot before the ceremony. Truly the best fan base in pro football. I’m afraid it’s going to be a long day of drinking and a tough Monday morning for SteelerNation this weekend. Many  injuries on both sides of the ball is too much to overcome going into Baltimore. Take Baltimore.

New England at New Orleans ( -2.5 )

I just want to make sure I have the correct hype for this game. I know it’s the Game of the Week but some have been calling it the Game of the Year which I thought was two weeks ago for the Patriots-Colts game. In New Orleans some are calling it the Game of the Decade which would also make it the Game of the Century so far because we are in the first decade of a new century. My head is spinning. I’ll tell you who else’s  head will be spinning and that’s the New England secondary in this game. It used to be said that the greatest thing about New England was that they play 60 minutes of football. Not this year. They play 30 great minutes and 30 average minutes. In the 1st half of games this year, the Patriots have scored 196 points and in the 2nd half just 94. All 3 of their losses this year they led at the half. Half time adjustments? The Patriots will need to play 60 minutes Monday to win and they haven’t shown that against a good team all year. Not only that but Laurence Maroney has fumbled in two straight games and that’s a concern. Might be the Game of the Decade for the Saints but it appears to be another ho-hum game for the Patriots. Take New Orleans.

Analyst Disclosure: John Charles is a New England Patriots fan.

John Charles

Update- Week 12 Player Rankings are now posted at the top of the page.

I normally don’t like Thanksgiving. I usually find myself at an extended family members house making conversation with people that I haven’t seen since last Thanksgiving. Trying to keep one eye on the television while participating in a conversation that I don’t want to be in about the 1,000 ways the country is going down the tubes. Trying to keep the dog that I am allergic to from humping my leg while 8 cousins under the age of 7 are jumping up and down on beds. Getting called to the dinner table at the start of the 4th quarter.

Happy Holidays.

But this year I love it because my wife and I are making it our own and it’s just us. We are starting the festivities tonight with a Wild Turkey Wednesday when we are actually going out for drinks on a night that isn’t some one’s birthday or anniversary. We are having a menu tomorrow that we put together for us and does not include turkey which is overrated in my opinion. My attire tomorrow will be my Patriots sweatpants and not khaki’s and a shirt. Happy Holidays indeed.

Although there won’t be any turkey on my plate tommorrow, there will be a few on  television as the NFL continues to get it wrong by allowing Detroit and Dallas to have Thanksgiving games. No wonder Thanksgiving is the # 1 day of the year for domestic violence. The Detroit Lions don’t bring out the best in people.

Last week set a NFL record with the greatest number of games settled by 8 points or less. Call it parity or call it a fluke, the recent trend has been that double digit favorites are not covering. With 2 of the 3 games on Thanksgiving featuring a double digit spread, let’s see if that trend continues.

Let’s do this.

Green Bay at Detroit ( +11 )

I would like to start by saying that as much as I make fun of Detroit in my columns, I was very impressed with their comeback win last week and the toughness of Matthew Stafford. That momentum could very well spill over into this game. Green Bay has played better recently with a more balanced attack. The opening line on this was 10 and has increased to 11. Detroit most likely will be playing with Daunte Culpepper and although it gives them the threat of a running quarterback, I see the Lions coming up 2 touchdowns short. Take Green Bay.

Oakland at Dallas ( -13.5 )

Oakland is not a good team but they have beaten Cincinnati and Philadelphia this year. Tony Romo is banged up and the Cowboys are winning but doing so in an unimpressive fashion. With a spread this high, you have to really like the Cowboys to push this many points. Many of the reports that I have read today are recommending taking Oakland with the points. For some reason, I don’t see this game being close and think Dallas will elevate their level of play with a national audience. Take Dallas.

NY Giants at Denver ( +6.5 )

It’s hard to think a team that hasn’t won in nearly 6 weeks would be in the middle of a playoff chase in the AFC but Denver is not done yet. In fact a win here and they are in pretty good shape. Both teams are similar in the fact that they can get hot and cold very quickly. I think this a backs against the wall type game for Denver. They will look to establish the run early and then take shots down the field late. I like for this to be a close game and even though either team could win it, I’ll take the points with the home team. Take Denver.

Rest of the picks on Friday, have a great Wild Turkey Wednesday and a Happy Thanksgiving.

Two weeks ago the ESPN Sunday Morning Countdown Show called the Indianapolis – New England game the GAME of the YEAR. Last night as they were plugging the upcoming New Orleans – New England game, once again they referred to it as the Game of the Year. It seems like we are having a Game of the Year on a weekly basis.

We aren’t looking for any Game of the Year, Decade or Century candidates when we are doing our Survivor Pool rankings. We are looking for the winner of the Blowout of the Year. We are looking for a game that maybe the networks will switch away from. That game where most of the fans have left by the 2 minute warning. We are looking for a game where an opposing coach feels disrespected because the other team passed the ball in the 4th quarter.

In keeping with the Thanksgiving theme, we are looking for a real turkey.

Turkeys are hard to find in Week 12. Looks like there will be a lot of close games. In fact, I could find only 2 teams to seriously consider taking this week. Cincinnati and Dallas.

Cincinnati: Cincinnati is at home against Cleveland. Cleveland lost last week in shocking fashion by being called for a blatant pass interference call on a hail mary, then calling time out which allowed Detroit to put an injured Matthew Stafford back into the game to throw a game winning touchdown with a separated shoulder. But then this is where it starts to get good. Cleveland head coach Eric Mangini then called out Detroit for faking injuries in the 4th quarter. The last time I recall a team being called out for faking 4th quarter injuries was the Patriots when their defensive coach was, you guessed it, Eric Mangini. Cincinnati lost a cross country road game last week in Oakland and you would have to think they will play much better at home this weekend.

Dallas: Dallas has won 5 of 6 and you always have to give them another edge by playing at home on Thanksgiving. Tony Romo appears that he is going to play and it’s hard to imagine the Raiders coming in and winning this game. Oakland has averaged just 10.8 points per game this season and that’s not going to cut it.

Another team many are considering is Green Bay against Detroit but I don’t want to go against Detroit at home on Thanksgiving. Another popular pick would be San Diego at home against Kansas City but ask someone who picked the Steelers last week what they think of the Chiefs.

Here are my top 10 safest Survivor Pool picks for Week 12. I am going with Cincinnati which is basically  a pick against Cleveland more than anything else.

1. Cincinnati
2. Dallas
3. Minnesota
4. San Diego
5. Green Bay
6. Philadelphia
7. Atlanta
8. NY Giants
9. Indianapolis
10. Miami

Survive and Advance.  Good Luck in Week 12.

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

It was half time of the late games yesterday and I was pacing the floor. My fantasy football team was finished for the day and I had a comfortable lead. My opponent only had 1 player left and it was Tom Brady who put up nice numbers in the first half. If he put up similar numbers in the 2nd half, I would lose.

So what’s the big deal you say? Well Tom Brady is the quarterback for my favorite team since childhood, the New England Patriots. If he does well, my favorite team moves closer to winning and my fantasy football team comes closer to losing.

That raises the question: Which is more important to you? Normally I would say that the Patriots winning is more important than my fantasy team. But yesterday was a tough dilemma because I know the Patriots could have lost that game and still made the playoffs but my fantasy team would be in worse shape to make the playoffs.

How about this scenario? It’s Week 16 and you are in the Super Bowl of your fantasy league and your opponent has the running back of your favorite team. It’s the end of the game and your team is on the goal line. If that running back scores a touchdown, your fantasy team loses the Super Bowl but your favorite team makes the playoffs. Which do you root for as you see the hand off?

 Loading ...

Yesterday it worked out for me on both fronts. The Patriots and my fantasy team, the Patsies, both won. But it was close and if Tom Brady was able to convert on the QB sneaks at the goal line, my Patsies team would have lost.

Let’s look at the Waiver Wire for Week 12. This late in the year you are looking to just fill some holes on your roster and to prevent your opponents from picking up players that could contribute for them. It’s also the time of year when some leagues are up against a roster deadline so you need to be prepared if some of your starters go down with injury. Complete player rankings will be out Wednesday.

Quarterback

Jim Sorgi: If you are a Peyton Manning owner, it’s time to pick up Sorgi. It looks like Indianapolis is going to have everything wrapped up and may not be playing Manning for more than a series as early as Week 15. If you have roster space and want to stick it to a Peyton Manning owner, you can pick him up as well.

Running Backs

Rock Cartwright: I almost put him on this list last week as I was concerned about the durability of Ladell Betts. Betts is out for the season and Cartwright is the man running the ball the rest of the way for the Redskins. He is the top pick up of the week.

Fred Jackson: If available, grab him quickly. With Marshawn Lynch down, Jackson’s stock rises.

Wide Receivers

Mohamed Massaquoi: He was picked up in many leagues in the beginning of the season and then dropped by many. It’s time to bring him back.

Brandon Gibson: I put him on this list last week and he wasn’t picked up by that many. He had 7 catches yesterday and that’s worthy of a roster spot.

Tight End

Brandon Pettigrew: If you have seen him play this year you have to be impressed. With the game on the line yesterday, that play was drawn for him.

Tom Santi : He’s the number 2 tight end for Indianapolis right now and got a lot of looks yesterday. With that being said, it was an up and down game for him. However, if you are a Dallas Clark owner you need to pick him up as an insurance policy.

Busy week. Good Luck in Week 12.

John Charles Last Week:  8-6-1

John Charles Season:  80-62-2  ( 56.3% )

Readers Last Week:  7-7-1

Readers Season:  76-66-2  ( 53.5% )

I have 3 email accounts.  One for friends and family, one for business and one for this web site.  My “friends and family” account fills up pretty quickly with emails telling me that there are millions of dollars waiting for me in Nigerian bank accounts which is good to know.  My “business”  account just happens to be the account I gave out to the other members of my fantasy football league so that fills up with smack talk from the owner of “Steve Breaston Plants”  whom I am playing this week.  But my favorite emails come from the reader’s of this site.  Before we get to this week’s Point Spread Picks, let’s check email.

Thanks..love the site. Just came across it today, and will visit often. – Jonathan

hey john,

i’ve been a “reader” for about 4 weeks, and i have enjoyed reading your blog, i am in first place in both of my leagues,

the info on your page has been usefull. – Ricardo

Just wanted you to know that I love your site and use it every week. you have not let me down yet.- Greg

John, I absolutely love your site. It has helped me throughout the fantasy season. I’m currently 1st place and have held the 1st place spot since day one, all thanks to your help!- Nadine

I know how much work it takes to update a website often. AND to be on top of your football game. It takes time and dedication. You’re doing a great job! – A. Nonimus

Thank You for all the nice emails and I have to say that I really do appreciate them.  Now that I am all fired up, let’s pick some winners.

I go into the weekend at 1-0 by getting last night’s game correct by taking Miami.  I’d like to thank Jake Delhomme for all you do and it was nice to see Miami cut down on all that Wildcat stuff and play traditional football.  If they continue to do that, they may make a playoff run.

Let’s do this:

Cleveland at Detroit ( – 3.5 )

Every analysis  I have read of this game has featured some sort of a lame joke in reference to how bad this game is.  Not to be outdone, let me give it a try with some zingers:

1. The Bowl season is starting early on CBS.  Watch the Browns and Lions this week in the Toilet Bowl.
2. Those weren’t passes Brady Quinn was throwing at the end of the Monday Night game that landed repeatedly 20 feet out of bounds, they were orders to the hot dog guy.
3. The Lions season ticket package qualifies under the Cash for Clunkers program.
4. Did you hear that Brady Quinn got an endorsement deal from Sara Lee?  “Hi, I’m Brady Quinn and if there’s one thing I know about it’s turnovers……”.

Ok, I’ll keep my day job.  Detroit is a bad team but Cleveland is taking it to a whole new level.  I like Detroit to move the ball running.  A big game from Kevin Smith.  Take Detroit.

Buffalo at Jacksonville ( -9 )

Jacksonville is a team I liked as a sleeper in the preseason and they are getting hot at the right time.  Winners of two in a row since their bye week, they need this game bad to stay right on the cut off line for a wild card spot.  A loss here would be devastating.  Buffalo is in shambles but they do feature a strong running attack which has given Jacksonville trouble this year.  The 9 points is what I am on the fence about.  Confidence is low with this pick but I will lean towards the hot team.  Take Jacksonville.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City ( +10 )

A double digit home underdog game.  I have had some success this season taking the points in this type of situation.  I think the suspension of Dwayne Bowe will be a big factor and the Steelers are out for some revenge after losing last week.  Take Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis at Baltimore ( +1 )

This line opened up as Baltimore favored by 1 and since has flopped which is a rare occurrence.  If the season ended today, Indianapolis would be the #1 seed and Baltimore would be out of the playoffs.  So why are so many people picking Baltimore to win this game?  I don’t see anyone stopping the Colts offense.  Wouldn’t it be fitting for the game to end on a Matt Stover field goal?  Please football gods, make that happen.  Take Indianapolis.

Atlanta at NY Giants ( -6.5 )

This game is huge for both teams trying to get in as a wild card.  Both teams are a disappointing 5-4.  The Giants started the season 5-0 and my preseason pick for the Super Bowl was looking good.  Current Vegas odds on the Giants winning the Super Bowl are 25-1 up from 3-1 back in week 1.  Hmmm.  I know I have a dollar around here somewhere.  I like the Giants to be a 2 headed running machine from here on out.  Take NY Giants.

San Francisco at Green Bay ( -6.5 )

I own Ryan Grant in my fantasy league so I have seen a lot of Green Bay this year.  I am not that impressed to tell you the truth in the Packers offense.  Their play calling in the red zone has been terrible but maybe I am biased.  San Francisco is going to be running the ball early and often which means they will hang around in this game.  I like Green Bay by a touchdown but no more.  Take Green Bay.

Seattle at Minnesota ( -11 )

Minnesota is 4-0 at home this year and Seattle is 0-4 on the road.  So the only question is the spread.  You just have a feeling that Favre likes to wrap these games up by the end of the 3rd quarter.  I think that will be the case here.  Matt Hasselbeck is going to be lucky to finish this game in one piece.  Take Minnesota.

Washington at Dallas ( – 11 )

I am looking hard to find my Upset Pick of the Week.  I made the correct call with  an upset in the Thursday night game but I didn’t call it out as my Upset Pick of the Week.  Well look at what we have here.  A division game with a double digit point spread.  This is a Vegas trap game.  Dallas should win but look for the Skins to keep it close enough with a steady dose of Ladell Betts.  This is my Upset Pick of the Week ! Take Washington.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay ( +11.5 )

I think people are making a bigger deal about their close win last week against the Rams than they should.  New Orleans is good and you aren’t always going to blow everyone out.  I do think there could be a let down here as the Saints are looking ahead to playing the Patriots next week at home on Monday night.  I know Tampa Bay has been playing better but I still like the Saints by two touchdowns.  Take New Orleans.

Arizona at St. Louis ( +9 )

We have some great homecomings this week.  Kurt Warner to St. Louis.  Matt Stover to Baltimore.  Kevin O’Connell to New England.  Arizona is putting everything together at the right time.  They can run or pass and impossible to defend.  I really like them to make a serious playoff run again this year.  This is my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week!  Take Arizona to the bank.

NY Jets at New England ( -10.5 )

Are you like me and all fired up about the NFL pregame shows this weekend?  I can’t wait to see what everyone has to say about the Belichick call.  There just hasn’t been enough discussion about this.  I won’t be able to sleep unless I know what Terry and Howie have to say about it.  I need full team coverage.  Here’s an interesting note – earlier this week I posted a poll ( scroll down below to this weeks Waiver Wire column ) that asked what people thought of the call.  In the first few days of polling, it was 80-90% against the call to go for it.  Now it’s right around 65% against.  In other words, people are becoming more tolerable of the call after thinking about it more and that’s what we will hear this weekend on the pregame shows.  What’s lost in this is the fact that Laurence Maroney fumbled on the goal line and the Patriots should have never been in that position.  Look for Brady to throw 50+ times and New England to pour it on.  Take New England.

Cincinnati at Oakland ( +8 )

Oakland has had some success this year against East Coast teams coming into their house.  Not this week.  Take Cincinnati.

San Diego at Denver ( +3 )

These teams don’t like each other and usually play close high scoring games.  I like Phillip Rivers much better than either Kyle Orton or Chris Simms.  I like L.T. in this game.  I like Vincent Jackson.  Lots of things to like about the Chargers.  Take San Diego.

Philadelphia at Chicago ( +3 )

Do or die game for Chicago.  I am not sure who is more upset, the guy who took Matt Forte in the 1st round or the guy who took L.T. in the 1st round.  Not too much to get excited about in regards to Chicago’s offense.  I like Philadelphia big in this one.  Take Philadelphia.

Tennessee at Houston ( -4.5 )

Very interesting game here.  Tennessee winners of 3 in a row under Vince Young against Houston who desperately need this game to hang in the wild card race.  Vince Young returns to Texas is a nice storyline.  Houston torched Tennessee back in week 2 and I think they do it again here.  Matt Schaub should have a field day and Steve Slaton gets back to his old self and wins this one big.  Take Houston.

Good Luck in Week 11.

Our regular Thursday column, 5 UP and 5 DOWN is on a bye week.  It will return next week.  Everything else remains the same including our Friday Point Spread Picks column which will be out in the morning. 

Our Week 11 Player Rankings are updated and posted above.  You can also listen to this afternoon’s podcast on the RADIO page above. 

If you haven’t voted in this week’s Point Spread Picks Poll, you can do so by clicking here. 

Thursday Night Game

Miami at Carolina ( -3 )

Loyal readers will know that I despise the home team 3 point spread.  These are games in which Vegas gets a big laugh as they take two evenly matched teams and push a  3 point spread on the home team.  That’s what we have here.  Both teams have played up and down this season with a little more downs than ups.  Miami just lost their best player for the season and the line never moved.  Carolina has a great runner in DeAngelo Williams that is injured and might be 80% at best.  Miami quarterback Chad Henne has 5 touchdown passes on the season.  That output equals single games from Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner this year.  Have I gotten you fired up for the Thursday night game yet ?  I think both of these teams are equal and Carolina’s home field advantage isn’t worth 3 points.  I am going to take those points and go against the consensus of the readers of this site ( 61% are taking Carolina – 3) and  start the week off with a slight upset.  Take Miami.

UPDATE- Week 11 Player Rankings are posted above.

Still alive in your Survivor Pool? Congrats but you aren’t alone. It’s been a surprisingly easy pool this year. I belong to a website that tracks survivor pools and picks and nearly 40% of all entrants are still alive. Last week most of us had the 17 point favorite Minnesota Vikings. A 17 point favorite in Week 10. I gave more thought to what pair of sweatpants to wear  Sunday than I did to my survivor pool pick.

Now we are going to pay. This week is hard. Very hard. I have ranked my top 5 picks three times tonight. It’s been a crazy week and that means this weekend is going to be crazy as well. I have the Detroit Lions chances of winning ranked higher than the undefeated Indianapolis Colts chances. That tells you how crazy this week is.

There have been starting running backs that are already ruled OUT, a teams best player getting suspended, a kicker getting cut, a head coach fired and that’s just from what I read on my Twitter page in the last 3 hours. This week more than ever we need to remember some of our basic Survivor Pool rules. Try not to take a road team in a division game, a road team travelling cross country, a team going up against “something new” like a new head coach, quarterback, or running back.

I have narrowed my selection to 5 choices this week. Let’s look at all 5 and try to make a case for why they would have trouble.

Jacksonville: Jacksonville is very much alive in the playoff hunt. Winners of 2 in a row, they are at home against Buffalo. Buffalo just fired their head coach today. We don’t know what to expect from Buffalo now. Some cause for concern here.

Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh goes on the road to Kansas City. Pittsburgh lost last week at home and Kansas City has played much better without Larry Johnson by winning last week at Oakland and losing the previous week by only 3 to Jacksonville. Pittsburgh is 2-2 this year on the road. Some cause for concern here.

Minnesota: Minnesota is at home against Seattle. Seattle is better than their 3-6 record would indicate and they have a new starting running back this week that can run and catch out of the backfield. As much as I like Minnesota in this game, most of us took Minnesota last week.

New Orleans: 9-0 New Orleans against 1-8 Tampa Bay seems like a total mismatch. However, New Orleans looked sluggish last week against St. Louis and the last time Tampa Bay played at home they beat Green Bay. Not a sure thing after all.

Arizona: The hot Arizona Cardinals travel to St. Louis. St. Louis hung around until very late last week against New Orleans and features the game changing Steven Jackson. Most major survivor pool upsets are by the road team in division contests and that’s exactly what we have here. Some cause for concern.

My pick would be New Orleans first, Pittsburgh second and Minnesota third but all those teams aren’t available to me so I have to go with my fourth pick Arizona. Arizona is a perfect 4-0 on the road this year and St. Louis is a perfect 0-4 at home. I hope those trends continue.

Below are my rankings for the 15 safest Survivor Pool Picks this week. Good Luck. We are going to need it.

1. New Orleans
2. Pittsburgh
3. Minnesota
4. Arizona
5. Jacksonville
6. Dallas
7. New England
8. Cincinnati
9. Green Bay
10. NY Giants
11. Philadelphia
12. San Diego
13. Houston
14. Detroit
15. Indianapolis

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

There’s no way they are really going to go for it. They are just trying to draw them offsides to get the first down. They’ll take the 5 yard penalty and punt. Maybe make the Colts burn a timeout. They aren’t really going to go for it because that would be one of the riskiest calls that I have ever seen. No one does that.

That was my thought process as I watched the play clock slowly tick down as the New England Patriots lined up against the Indianapolis Colts in a game that will be talked about for years to come. And then…..

The players started moving. I yelled out two words. The first one was “Holy” and the next one was….I am sure you can imagine. In a flash the play was over and there was no way they were going to stop the Colts after that.

Forget the spot talk. That’s not the point. It’s about emotions and risk. I can see it both ways. Yes, getting 2 yards should be easier than asking your tired defense to stop a red hot Peyton Manning. On the other hand, it’s too unconventional. You have to play it straight up and punt.

It’s like playing blackjack and there is that one guy that’s doing things he shouldn’t be doing like splitting 10′s or taking a card when the dealer is showing a 6. Yes, it might work out but more often than not it doesn’t and it upsets the rest of the players because they have no confidence in how that person’s decisions is going to effect their play.

How the Patriots respond to this against the Jets this weekend will be important for the rest of their season. My opinion was that it was the wrong call before the play happened but I still would rather have Bill Belichick on my sideline than anyone else.

What do you think?

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

It’s an interesting week on the Waiver Wire as quite a few running backs got injured.

Quarterbacks

Marc Bulger: St. Louis played with some fire this past weekend against New Orleans. Teams are having to load the line to stop Steven Jackson and in doing so allow the Rams to pick their spots down field. St. Louis has some games coming up against pass friendly teams suck as Arizona, Seattle and Tennessee.

Running Backs

Jason Snelling: # 3 on the depth charts could be starting for the next few weeks. Michael Turner owners should have Snelling but if they don’t, pick him up for trade or put on your bench.

Justin Forsett: This is the guy I am going for first this week. Even if Julius Jones is out a week or so, I think this is Forsett’s job to lose at this point and a nice soft schedule coming up.

Bernard Scott: Initial reports is that Cedric Benson’s injury is not that serious but Scott is an insurance policy that should be purchased.

Ricky Williams: I am listing him here on the slim chance he is still available in your league. With Ronnie Brown out for Thursday’s game, Williams is a top 10 back this week.

Sammy Morris: What’s lost in all this New England controversy is the fact that Laurence Maroney fumbled going in for a score last night. I guarantee that’s not lost on Belichick who loves Morris on the goal line and is close to returning.

Wide Receiver

Donnie Avery: Avery is streaky and on a bit of a hot streak right now.

Brandon Gibson: St. Louis is having some success throwing the ball and Gibson impressed me with his play yesterday.

Tight End

Spencer Havner: We put him on this list 2 weeks ago and he is still available in many leagues. He scored another touchdown yesterday and it’s hard to ignore these catches.

Check back Wednesday to see how these players fit into our Player Rankings.