Fantasy-Football-First

Archive for December, 2009

Well here we are in Week 17 having survived 16 weeks of games and still alive in our Survivor Pool. We’ve been lucky to get this far. We’ve dodged some bullets when there were teams I would have liked to have taken but couldn’t ended up losing. We’ve been fortunate that each team we said was our pick for the week in this Wednesday night column ended up winning that weekend. We are just 1 game away from a perfect season and unlike the Indianapolis Colts, that means something around these parts.

We had very few rules in picking teams at the beginning of the season and added one very important one early on.

1. Don’t save teams.  Don’t even look ahead.  If you think a team is going to win that week, use them that week.
2. Watch out for teams that have a winning record but barely squeak by or “find a way to win”.  One of the teams I didn’t use this year was the Indianapolis Colts.  Even when they were winning all those games, many times it was 4th quarter comebacks and you don’t want any part of that in Survivor Pools.
3. Try to avoid the road team on cross country trips. 
4. Shy away from division games if you can, especially the AFC and NFC East.

That was basically it going into the season.  Early on we added a 5th rule and that was to not pick against the Oakland Raiders.  In Week 6 they upset Philadelphia at home which I avoided due to rule # 3.  In Week 11 they beat Cincinnati at home and that showed me that even with a terrible record they could come to play with anybody.  That’s when I started cautioning against going up against the Raiders.  They pulled off another major upset at Pittsburgh and then another one when they won in Denver.  They have only won 5 games but 4 of those were major upsets and I don’t want any part of that type of unpredictability.

So we have had those 5 rules which has gotten us to the doorstep of a perfect season. 

We are going to add 2 more rules for Week 17. 

#6.  We will not pick a team that has already locked up a playoff spot. 

#7.   We will try to pick a team that is fighting for the playoff lives.

Let’s break it down.

Here are the 5 teams that I think have the best shot at winning on Sunday:

San Francisco:  San Francisco at 7-8 really wants to avoid a losing season.  They play at St. Louis who has only won 1 game all year and that was at Detroit.  If St. Louis wins this game it could cost them the #1 pick in next years draft.    Picking San Francisco would be a slight break of Rule # 4.

Denver:  Denver needs to win this game and have some help to get in.  All of the scenarios don’t appear likely and there is a chance this game could be meaningless by the time of it’s kickoff at 4:15pm.  What would be the team’s mindset if told 10 minutes prior to the game they have been eliminated?  Denver will be the popular pick this week because they are playing Kansas City at home.  I’m having a hard time endorsing a team that has lost 3 straight and 7 of 9.  Picking Denver would be a break of Rule #4 but that could be offset by Rule # 7.

Baltimore:  Baltimore is in a great position.  Win and they are in.  That alone makes you have to consider taking the Ravens this week.  They play at Oakland.  Picking  Baltimore, which many will do this week , would be a break of Rule # 3 and Rule # 5.

Tennessee:  Every loss this season has been to a playoff team or a team still in the playoff hunt.  This week they play at Seattle, a team definitely not playoff caliber.  It’s obvious Tennessee did not give up on their season although it appears Seattle certainly has.  Picking Tennessee would be a break of Rule # 3.

NY Jets:  They get to play in the 8pm game so they get the advantage of watching many teams fall out of the playoff picture all day long.  They play Cincinnati who may or may not have something to play for and may or may not play their regulars the entire game and may or may not even want to win the game depending on whom they would face in the playoffs.  All of this bodes well for the Jets and Rule # 7 would suggest taking them.

That’s the 5 teams I have narrowed my selections to.  Out of those 5, I have already selected San Francisco, Baltimore and Tennessee.  That leaves me to either pick  the NY Jets or the Denver Broncos.  I need to go with the rules that got me here and the rules say to take the NY Jets.  My pick is the NY Jets. 

Here is how I would rank these 5 teams:

1. San Francisco
2. NY Jets
3. Tennessee
4. Denver
5. Baltimore

Good Luck.

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

Here we are in Week 17 and I would assume all fantasy football leagues have wrapped up their season and this week will be a break before Fantasy Football for the Playoffs begins.  But I could be wrong.  I am amazed at how many sites are putting out their Week 17 Waiver Wire and Player Rankings. 

So the question is…………Do you want  Week 17 Player Rankings this week?

 Loading ...

Also, for those of you still alive in your Survivor Pools, I will have a Survivor Pool Picks column up on Thursday.  It’s a tough week figuring out who is going to play and who is going to stand on the sidelines in a baseball hat.  But that brings me to the question……Let’s say you are in a Survivor Pool and you still have people left after Week 17.  Is it best to split the pot or reset for the playoffs with the remaining participants?

 Loading ...

I have a lot going on this weekend. I am 1 of 2 people left in the Survivor Pool on this web site. I am in the Super Bowl of my 12-team league, the 12 Angry Men, going up against a team that went 13-1 on the regular season. I am currently 12 games over .500 in my season long point spread picks and would like to get that up to 20. Not to mention my team, the New England Patriots, need my help as a 13th man ( I reserve the 12th man for those actually at the game ). We have a lot to touch on:

Survivor Pool: Wow, what an upset. A total blindside. I did not see that coming. I was stunned. Of course I am talking about Russell losing in the finals on Survivor. I watched all season with my wife and I kept telling her that this is the most dominating performance I have ever seen on a reality show but he did have one flaw that cost him the game and that was the fact that he didn’t have to burn all those bridges face to face. He didn’t have to seek out whomever he knew was getting voted out and get their sense of hope up on a deal that would never come about. Don’t burn bridges unless you have no other choice and he didn’t do that. Oh, in my other Survivor Pool………I have been saying for most of the season to stay clear of the Oakland Raiders. Last week, for the second time this season, they won a game in which they were at least a 14 point favorite. What Oakland has done to Survivor Pools this year is comical. If by chance you are still alive, here’s my top 5 for this week:

1. New Orleans:  Confidence booster game.
2. Arizona:  Need to get that Swagger back.
3. Green Bay:  Playing great.
4. Cincinnati:  Won’t lose 2 straight.
5. San Francisco:  Lions on the road should be a no brainer.

I have already selected New Orleans and Arizona this year and therefore my pick is Green Bay. 

Fantasy Super Bowl: 

My quarterback is Peyton Manning who may or may not play a whole game.  I also have Reggie Wayne so that’s double the worry on that situation.  My running back is Ryan Grant who I feel good about in his match up against Seattle.  My 2nd running back is either Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Forsett or I can go with Jerome Harrison who I just picked up off the waiver wire after he was dropped a few weeks ago.  I am leaning towards starting Harrison which would mean that I picked up a starting running back off the waiver wire to start in the Super Bowl.  According to my player rankings at the top of the page, I should go with Grant and Harrison which is what I’ll do…..and then pray.

If you are playing in your fantasy playoffs this weekend, my only advice is to stay calm.  Don’t over analyze it.  Go with your gut and not a web site.  Last week I was torn between Ryan Grant and Ahmad Bradshaw.  Grant has been the much better player all season but he was going against Pittsburgh and Bradshaw was sure to see some significant carries against Washington.  I consulted the player rankings for 30 different fantasy football web sites to compare Grant and Bradshaw and all 30 web sites, including my own, had Grant ranked much higher.  My gut was telling me that Pittsburgh would hold Grant in check but Washington couldn’t stop Bradshaw and to start him.  I went with the 30 web sites over my gut and my gut was right by a landslide.  If you lose, it’s much better to blame yourself than a web site.

Point Spread Picks

John Charles Last Week:  4-10-2

John Charles Fri. Night Game:  1-0

John Charles Season:  116-104-5   ( 52.7% )

Readers Last Week:  4-10-2

Readers Fri. Night Game:  1-0

Readers Season:  113-107-5  ( 51.3% )

Let’s do this.

Seattle at Green Bay ( -14 )

I already mentioned that Green Bay is my Survivor Pool pick so it’s safe to say that I like them to win this game.  But cover?   The fact that Seattle still hasn’t come out and said that Justin Forsett is their starting running back even though every one else in the world knows he’s the best you have tells me all I need to know about Seattle.  Take Green Bay.

Oakland at Cleveland ( -3 )

Two of the NFL’s hottest teams are hooking up in this conference match up.  Ok, maybe not “hot” like how your shower gets when the toilet is flushed but more like the  ”hot” that  your 6 year old thinks his chicken nuggets are after sitting on his plate for 10 minutes.  I need to say this very quietly so no one shows up to my house offering to take me to a safe place, I’m pushing the points with Derek Anderson.  Take Cleveland.

Kansas City at Cincinnati ( -13.5 )

I really hate these 2 touchdown spreads.  I would like to think Cincinnati will bounce back from last weeks loss and that Larry Johnson has been begging for the ball all week.  Take Cincinnati.

Buffalo at Atlanta ( -9 )

Atlanta is still playing hard even though their season is done and that should be enough to get by and cover the rather unusual high spread here.  Take Atlanta.

Houston at Miami ( -3 )

The winner of this game puts them into a position to be playing for something next week while the loser of this game is done.  Classic game of a rushing team against a passing team.  I think the passing team gets it done.  This is my Upset Pick of the Week.  Take Houston.

Carolina at NY Giants ( -7 )

The Giants will still be playing for something  in this game so I like them to continue putting up a lot of points.  Take NY Giants.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans ( -14 )

On paper this should be a blow out.  I would want to take the points in this type of game if it wasn’t for the fact that New Orleans lost last week.  I think they want to set the record straight.  Take New Orleans.

Jacksonville at New England ( -7.5 )

Santa was good to me and my # 51 Jerod Mayo jersey is ready to be broken in this weekend.  Unfortunately, I don’t think this is a good match up for the Patriots.  They have no answer for Maurice Jones-Drew.  They may win but I’ll take the points.  Take Jacksonville.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh ( -2.5 )

The Steelers were done last week until ………they pulled it out and if they win this game, they are looking good for a wild card.  Don’t ever count out the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh.

Denver at Philadelphia ( -7)

I have been on and off the Broncos bandwagon so much this year I don’t think I have the strength to do it again.  Philadelphia is playing great and I don’t trust a team making a cross country trip after a devastating loss.  This is my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week.   Take Philadelphia.

St. Louis at Arizona ( -14 )

I believe Arizona should win this game.  I believe I am not alone in this opinion.  Take Arizona.

Detroit at San Francisco ( -13 )

The common trend this season is to take Detroit at home and not when on the road.  Sounds good.  Take San Francisco.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (  -5.5 )

I am starting to think Indianapolis might want this perfect record thing.  Tough to predict but I’ll assume the Colts will play at 100%.  Take Indianapolis.

Dallas at Washington ( +7 )

Two teams going in total opposite directions.  I’ll go with the one going upward.  Take Dallas.

Minnesota at Chicago ( +7 )

The Brett Favre Show hits Chicago.  Take Minnesota.

Good Luck in Week 16.

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

John Charles Last Week: 9-7
John Charles Thurs. Night: 0-1
John Charles Season: 111-95-3 ( 53.8 % )

Readers Last Week: 12-4
Readers Thurs. Night: 1-0
Readers Season: 109-97-3 ( 52.9 % )

What a great record last week from the consensus of the Readers on this site. You all went an impressive 12-4 and have pulled within just a few games of myself. We have a great weekend of games on tap and an added bonus of an East Coast storm to make it all the more interesting.

It’s been kind of hectic these last few days getting ready for the holidays so today’s column will be pretty much a “quick hits” picks column. Every year I say to my wife that I want to get it all done early and yet every year I am the lonely guy at the mall on Xmas eve. This year we all get a present from the NFL and that’s a rare Christmas game. But before we get to that, we need to get through this weekend.

Let’s do this Xmas style.

Dallas at New Orleans ( -7 )

I love the Saturday night games and would welcome them throughout the entire season. This one figures to be a high scoring affair as New Orleans goes for the perfect record and Dallas is fighting for their wild card lives. Throw in the fact that it’s fantasy football playoffs time and all eyes will be on Drew Brees, Tony Romo and a half dozen running backs and it’s going to be a ratings bonanza. I think New Orleans wants the perfect record bad and will be airing it out against a Dallas team that I don’t trust in December. Take New Orleans.

Xmas Style- Saturday night will be a big night for office parties across the country. Is there anything worse than going to your spouse’s office party? You don’t know anyone. You’ve been warned not to tell any of your usual jokes and stories. Your wife forbid you to do any shots in case you get in that magical zone which gets you out on the dance floor. Every guy that you get introduced to makes you wonder if they are the one that flirts with your wife all day. I usually just find myself by the bar secretly making fun of the guys from the IT department. Happy Holidays.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh ( -2 )

The playoffs start here for the Steelers. Thanks to Jacksonville’s loss last night, the Steelers still have a pulse. Green Bay needs this game as well to stay in control of the #5 seed in the NFC. Green Bay had a great game last week rushing the ball and that will need to continue if they want to go far. I have gone with Pittsburgh the past few weeks thinking it was their Back Against the Wall game and they have let me down each time. Sometimes you are what you are. Take Green Bay.

Xmas Style- Out of all the cities I have been to, my favorite around Xmas time is Washington, DC. I know it’s a tourist thing to do but going down to see the National Christmas Tree and the trees representing all the States is good clean family fun.

Miami at Tennessee ( -3 )

Big game for both teams as that last wild card spot in the AFC is up for grabs. Is there any way Tennessee’s Chris Johnson doesn’t go #1 in your fantasy draft next year? Look for him to get 25+ carries and make this wild card race all the more messier. Take Tennessee.

Xmas Style - We went out and got our Christmas tree last week at the same place we always do and it was 30 dollars. Last year it was 80. Pleasant surprise and when I inquired to the clerk about why it was so much cheaper this year, their response was ” I dunno”. All week I have been thinking about it. For some strange reason I need to know why the price of Christmas trees have dropped so dramatically. These are the weird things that keep me up at night.

New England at Buffalo ( +7 )

I have come to the following conclusions regarding the Patriots: 1. Tom Brady is hurt and why the Patriots never go out and get a quality veteran backup baffles me. 2. The Patriots can’t defend the pass. 3. Randy Moss is in shut down mode. Patriots haven’t won a game on the road in the United States all year and yet they continue to be road favorites. I’ll take the points. Take Buffalo.

Xmas Style - My wife got me up early on Black Friday to go to Target to get our son’s major gift, an air hockey table.  We had a long debate about whether these Black Friday deals were worth it or just a bunch of hype.  As I was hauling this 50 pound box out of the store at 6 am, I kept reminding myself that I was getting a good deal.  Until yesterday when I saw the same item 20 bucks cheaper.  Darn you Target.  Never again on Black Friday.

Arizona at Detroit ( +12.5 )

Arizona came back to earth last week and Kurt Warner looked totally out of it.  Detroit plays better at home but I think Arizona runs away with this one.  Take Arizona.

San Francisco at Philadelphia ( + 8 )

This is an intriquing game because of the line.  San Francisco can play anyone tough when they get the running game going early.  They may not win but they keep it close.  We saw that last week in their win over Arizona and earlier this year in a loss to Indianapolis.  Normally I don’t like West Coast teams playing on the road in the 1pm games but I am feeling like this might be another close game in which both teams will be utilizing a major emphasis on the run.  8 points seems a few too high to me so I’ll take them.  Take San Francisco.

Xmas Style – The best outdoor venue for a concert that I have ever been to is the Greek Theatre in Berkeley, California.  Truly amazing experience.  The only negative was that is was sooo cold that night.  One of the coldest I have ever been at an outdoor event.  Did I mention it was in September?  I bet that area is  really nice around Xmas time.

Atlanta at NY Jets ( -4.5 )

I mentioned on last week’s podcast that I predict the Jets to win their last 4 games and make the playoffs.  This would be game number 2 of that 4 game stretch.  Take NY Jets.

Xmas Style – The other day at an office Secret Santa gift exchange, one person gave their person a 25 dollar American Express gift card.  That person, in return got a 25 dollar American Express gift card.  I guess the only one who made out in that exchange was American Express.  Happy Holidays.

Chicago at Baltimore ( – 11 )

If the season ended right now the Ravens would be the last Wild Card in the AFC .  They moved this game time to 4pm to give the stadium more time to clean up after this weekends snowstorm.  A cold windy day featuring  2 cold weather teams.  You have to love it.  What I love is getting 11 points in a game where the total should be in the 30′s.  This is my Upset Pick of the Week.  Take Chicago.

Xmas Style – I flew in to BWI airport about 10 years ago after a big snowstorm.  They plowed the airport parking lot and even though it cleared the lanes of the parking lot, it completely covered the cars with snow.  On the shuttle bus, a young lady was having an attitude about how they didn’t dig out people’s cars for them.  She demanded the driver to call into the station to have someone come out and dig out her car for her.  The driver said to just stand by her car and someone will be out to dig out her car.  3 hours later, I finished digging out my car by hand and noticed her as I was driving out still standing by her car.  As I drove by, I rolled down my window and said “Happy Holidays” as I passed her.  That was the last time anyone gave me the finger. 

Cleveland at Kansas City ( -2 )

When these 2 teams hook up you have to throw out the records.  Cleveland has been playing much better lately under Brady Quinn.  Every time I have seen Kansas City play this year I have not been impressed.  I can’t believe I am taking Eric Mangini in a road game but Kansas City is making me do it.  Take Cleveland.

Xmas Style – Back in my single days, I used to give whatever girl I was dating a “trip” for Xmas.  It would always be a place that I wanted to go so basically it was a trip for me and I wouldn’t have to go alone.  One year I gave my girlfriend a trip to Cleveland to go to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.  She was so thrilled to be going to Cleveland in January.  We did discover a great sports bar in Cleveland called Cooperstown, owned by Alice Cooper.  We had a great time there.  I just did a google search on it and I’m sad to see it closed 5 years ago.  Oh, things didn’t work out with that girlfriend either.

Houston at St. Louis ( +12.5 )

Houston is my Survivor Pool Pick of the Week so I am counting on you to win this road game.  Word tonight is that Steven Jackson has the flu.  This has a Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week feel to it.  Take Houston.

Xmas Style- I asked my 6 year old if he wanted to try some Egg Nog.  He said “no way”.  I later asked my 6 year old if he wanted to try some Christmas Milk.  He loved it. 

Cincinnati at San Diego ( -6.5 )

For the last 3 years I have taken Chris Henry as my last pick in my fantasy draft.  I reserve my last pick for a player that has the most potential but for some reason no one has taken.  I don’t think I ever started him but I always took him with that last pick because the potential was there.  Unfortunately, we’ll never know.  He was going to be a free agent this off season and someone would have given him a chance.  I am saddened at the thought of his 3 young children who lost a parent because of a situation that you wouldn’t expect your parents to be in.  I am not sure what emotional effect this has on the game but I do know that San Diego is the better team.  Take San Diego.

Xmas Style – I don’t care how many Chargers fans are wearing their Santa hats on Sunday, it just doesn’t feel like Christmas to see someone in shorts and a t shirt wearing a Santa hat.

Oakland at Denver ( -14 )

All signs are pointing to a potential playoff game of Denver and New England and I would love that.  I do like Denver in this game but you’ll need 3 scores to beat me because I am taking these points.  Take Oakland.

Xmas Style – I used to have friends that lived in Denver and I went out to visit them one year and was introduced to Fat Tire Amber Ale.  It was love at first sip and I am very happy to see that Fat Tire has made it out to the East Coast and I can now buy it at the grocery store here in Georgia.  Another Xmas miracle.

Tampa Bay at Seattle ( -6.5 )

Tampa Bay is battling for that first overall pick in next years draft.  They wouldn’t mess that up by winning here, would they?  Note to Seattle -  it’s Justin Forsett time.  How about 20 touches this weekend?  Take Seattle.

Xmas Style -  Another year for Xmas, I gave my girlfriend at the time a trip to Seattle.  We did some exploring and found ourselves on a ferry to Bainbridge Island.  If you ask me now what would be my ideal place to live, my answer is Bainbridge Island, Washington.  With the average home being around 7 figures, I don’t see the moving vans showing up anytime soon.

Minnesota at Carolina ( +9 )

Not too much on the line in this one but Brett Favre does like to show up when the national tv cameras are rolling.  Take Minnesota.

Xmas Style – What ever happened to Christmas carolers?  We used to get them all the time when I was growing up in Rhode Island.  Now the only thing to come knocking on my door are kids selling things from pizza kits to magazines.  Come to think of it, that was a pretty awkward 2 minutes standing there at the door in my underwear while people are singing Deck the Halls.

NY Giants at Washington ( -3 )

Here’s what I know about trying to pick NFC East games- I don’t know how to do it.  There’s no such thing as home field advantage and every game is a toss up.  In this one, I am just going to go with the team that needs it more and that’s the Giants.  Take NY Giants.

Xmas Style – If Santa is reading this, I need a new Patriots jersey to replace my Richard Seymour one.  Since I only wear defensive players jersey’s , a XXL Jerod Mayo jersey would be just  fine.

Good Luck in Week 15.

I don’t think I have looked forward to a weekend of NFL football games as much as I am this one in a few years. I made the Final Four of my fantasy league even though I put up average numbers in large part because my opponent had Larry Fitzgerald ( 2 points ! ). I am in the Final Four of the Survivor Pool that I am running on this site which is shocking because I disclose my pick on Wednesday nights for all to see. We also have 4 nights of football so we can spread out the drama. I’m pumped.

Let’s start with the Survivor Pool. If you are still alive, Congrats. We lost a few souls last week that took Pittsburgh to beat Oakland. Oakland has knocked more people out than any other team this season with their upsets over Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Be wary of those Raiders. This week the popular pick is Denver who is playing, you guessed it, Oakland. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Anything can happen this time of year. I have narrowed my choice to 3 teams:

Arizona: Arizona didn’t look right Monday night. Dropped passes, fumbles, etc. I still believe in Arizona and there is no better team to turn things around against than Detroit who gave up last week in Baltimore. Coming off a short week on the road is always a concern but Detroit is banged up enough to feel secure here.

Denver: Denver is at home as a 13 point favorite to Oakland. Oakland has had 10 days to prepare and get healthy for this one. Oakland still doesn’t know who their QB will be as of this writing and Denver looked like they did earlier in the season last week. Denver needs this one to stay in control of a wild card spot. They should get it done with a good running game.

Houston: Houston goes on the road as a 10 point favorite to St. Louis. Houston is playing well and St. Louis is banged up. You have to like Houston’s chances in this one.

Nationwide for people that are still alive and made their pick for the week already, 40.2% picked Denver. Houston is next with 19.5% and Arizona is at 15.4%. Philadelphia and Baltimore are getting some picks as well. Here’s my top 3 safest picks:

1. Arizona
2. Houston
3. Denver

My pick is Houston.  I would have liked to have chosen Arizona but I have already used them this season.  I understand the popular pick is Denver but I am not going up against Survivor Pool killing Oakland.  If Oakland’s secondary shuts down Brandon Marshall anything can happen and I am not going near that.  I’ll stick with Houston and the red hot Andre Johnson. 

Thursday Night Pick

Indianapolis at Jacksonville ( + 3 )

Before I get to my point spread pick, I am going to go out on a limb and call out the big boys of fantasy football such as ESPN.com, YAHOO.com, CBSSPORTS.com.  All of the major corporate web sites are getting this game wrong from a fantasy prospective in my opinion.  All 3 of these sites have Peyton Manning as a top 5 QB, Reggie Wayne as a top 10 WR, Joseph Addai as a top 10 RB and Dallas Clark as a top 5 TE.  Not going to happen.  I don’t see the Colts playing any of these guys more than a half tomorrow night.  All 3 of these sites have made mention that Indianapolis is going to treat this game as a normal game.  No way.  They aren’t stupid and they don’t care about the perfect record. 

It would actually be in the Colt’s best interest to lose this game.  If Indianapolis wins, it really hurts Jacksonville’s chances of making the playoffs but opens the door for the Jets, Steelers, Ravens among others.  Don’t you think they would rather have Jacksonville in the AFC playoff pool than the defensive teams such as the Jets, Steelers or Ravens.  The Colts will be playing on 3 days rest, they don’t need this game to stay sharp.  I based my Player Rankings above on the assumption that the Colts regulars play a half at the most. 

Watch for 2 things early on tomorrow night.  First, the Inactives Report comes out 90 minutes prior to game time.  There may be a surprise or two on there.  Second, if the Colts win the toss and take the ball as opposed to defer to the 2nd half, that means they are just wanting to get their offensive work in early and don’t care about the 2nd half.  If I end up being correct on calling out these big boy fantasy football sites then I fully expect to get a job offer in the off season to do Player Rankings for a major site.  I can be had pretty cheap.

The line on this game opened as the Colts favored by 6.5 and has dropped dramatically down to 3 which tells you that Vegas isn’t expecting a full effort out of the Colts.  Indianapolis plays 30 minutes, Jacksonville 60.  Take Jacksonville.

The polls for this week’s Point Spread Picks are now open below. Please make your selections below and check out our POINT SPREAD PICKS page for the consensus and picks by our very own John Charles later in the week.

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

 Loading ...

John Charles Last Week:  4-12

John Charles Thurs. Night :  0-1

John Charles Season:  102-88-3  ( 53.6% )

Readers Last Week:  4-12

Readers Thurs. Night: 0-1

Readers Season:  96-94-3  ( 50.5% )

I love the flight to Vegas.  Everyone on the plane is so excited.  Mapping out the gameplan none of which includes sleep.  Good times.  The plane ride back is a different story.  Not much excitement.  Mostly quiet except for the one guy talking too loud about how he lucked out on a slot machine.  200 people on the plane and 1 happy soul on the way back.

“There is a reason Vegas looks the way it does” is something a sportsbook employee told me one time several years ago. 

Last week was one of those weeks when I remembered that sportsbook employee’s words as nothing seemed to go right.  I finished the week 4-12 which was my worst week of the season.  Sometimes it doesn’t go your way and other times it does.  You gotta play to win and let’s see if we can get back on track this week.

Let’s do this.

Denver at Indianapolis ( -7 )

The two things I got right last week features both these teams.  I correctly predicted that Denver would make a statement game and win and that Indianapolis would knock Tennessee back to earth.  This has the makings of a great game.  Denver will look to run and Indianapolis will look to air it out.  Indianapolis might be playing their last meaningful game until 2010 and Denver still has eyes on winning their division.  This game means more for Denver but it’s hard to go against a team that hasn’t lost all year and is pushing just a touchdown.  I am sticking with Indianapolis until they have nothing to play for.  Take Indianapolis.

Cincinnati at Minnesota ( -6.5 )

Hard to believe that these two teams have only 5 losses combined between them this season.  Hard to believe that Cincinnati could very well be a # 2 seed in the AFC when all is said and done.  It’s all hard for me to believe because I still refer to them as the Bungles in my head.  The Bengals play at Minnesota this week and at San Diego next week.  Two tough road games.  So why did the Bengals rush Cedric Benson 36 times last week in his first game back from an injury against Detroit?  That makes no sense to me especially when you have Larry Johnson as a backup.  That could come back to haunt them.  Minnesota hasn’t lost all year at home and that continues here with a late cover.  Take Minnesota.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay ( + 3 )

The Jets get the Lucky Schedule of the Year Award.  They get both Indianapolis and Cincinnati  which is tough but they get them in Week 16 and 17 when both will be resting their starters.  The Jets will win their last 4 to get to 10-6 and are playoff bound.  I am not just saying that because I get more hits to this web site from New York than any other state.  This week they get a very winnable game against Tampa Bay which looked terrible last week against Carolina.  Jets will run 40+ times and cover the 3.  Take NY Jets.

Buffalo at Kansas City ( Pick Em )

Kansas City has lost their last 2 games by a total of 60 points.  Buffalo has actually played teams tough the past few weeks.  Kansas City is starting to question whether it was smart to hand over the franchise to Matt Cassel.  Not much to like about Kansas City’s chances in this one except for the fact that they are at home and that’s the difference in this game.  Take Kansas City.

Green Bay at Chicago ( +3 )

Green Bay are winners of 4 in a row and they have moved into that last wild card spot in the NFC.  They could win their last 4 to go to 12-4 and finish no higher than the #5 seed.  They could also lose 1 game the rest of the way and not get in.  This game means much more to Green Bay than it does Chicago.  I still think Green Bay needs to run more but they should get the job done here.  Another huge game from Aaron Rodgers and I like them so much I am calling this my Back the Brinks Truck Up Pick of the Week.  Take Green Bay.

New Orleans at Atlanta ( +10 )

Atlanta is a double digit home underdog.  A loss here and the Falcons are pretty much done in the playoff picture.  Atlanta has a 6-6 record but have lost 5 of their last 7 games.  Last week they looked terrible at home against Philadelphia.  I think the injuries are just too much for Atlanta to hang in this game.  They did play New Orleans tough last month but it won’t be that close this time.  New Orleans is lights out in a dome.  Take New Orleans.

Detroit at Baltimore ( -13.5 )

Baltimore needs this game bad as they are waiting for Jacksonville to slip up so they can slide into that # 6 spot and would love to get Cincinnati in the first round.  That’s a long ways away but it starts at home this weekend against Detroit.  Detroit has lost every road game this year with the closest margin being 8 points.  Look for Ray Rice to run wild and Baltimore with a late cover.  Take Baltimore.

Miami at Jacksonville ( -3 )

This game is huge for both teams.  Vegas has slapped the 3 point home favorite tag on this one which we have learned is the hardest to handicap.  I read 6 different handicapping reports today and they are spilt 3-3 on this game.  The popular opinion poll is virtually 50-50.  I like Jacksonville since the preseason when they were a sleeper playoff pick of mine but I also like the fact that the Dolphins have abandoned their Wildcat offense which was holding them back.  When teams are virtually even as these teams are I usually take the points.  Injury report tonight has Mike Sims-Walker as questionable.  That could be the difference.  I’m torn.  For some reason I think Maurice Jones-Drew has a big day and for that reason alone I am going with the home team.  Take Jacksonville.

Carolina at New England ( -13 )

Not a good week for New England.  They started the week off with another 2nd half collapse that resulted in their worst loss in years.  Then Tom Brady called out his teammates while his wife was giving birth.  Then there was a winter storm that made some players 10 minutes late which sent Belichick into a frenzy and sent them home.  Then the Patriots listed Tom Brady as questionable with every injury known to man.  But the most bizarre?  Tonight the news that the Patriots mascot was arrested for a prostitution related crime.  The good news for New England?  Sunday marks a new week and things have a tendency to change on a dime.  Take New England.

Seattle at Houston ( -6.5 )

Houston’s playoff chances were pretty much ended with last weeks loss.  I was really looking forward to them getting in the playoffs so I could bet against them.  Not sure what their focus will be in this game but I have no trust in Seattle on the road.  Take Houston.

St. Louis at Tennessee ( -13 )

Tennessee is the most popular Survivor Pool pick of the week and I am taking them this week.  With that being said, I’m nervous about this game especially after watching Cleveland upset Pittsburgh last night.  Vince Young says he is going to play but I am not sure if he can finish.  Steven Jackson is a game time decision for the Rams.  Tennessee might not be as motivated after last weeks loss.  I don’t see how the Rams have an answer to stop Chris Johnson who is going to make a lot of fantasy owners happy this week.  Take Tennessee.

Washington at Oakland ( +1 )

Washington almost won last week against New Orleans but we know that “almost” only counts for teenage boys talking about their conquests and horseshoes.  Oakland beat Pittsburgh on the road.  Impressive that these two teams are playing just as hard as anyone at this point in the season.  Washington hasn’t won on the road all year and I don’t see them travelling 3,000 miles to do it here.  Take Oakland.

San Diego at Dallas ( -3 )

San Diego is very quietly on a 7 game winning streak and might be my pick in the AFC right now.  Dallas has a lot to play for in this game and they are at home.  I think this is a very even match up.  Hard to look past the way San Diego has been playing and I love them in games where weather isn’t a factor.  If you want to give me 3 points to take the Chargers, I’ll take it and call this my Upset Pick of the Week.  Take San Diego.

Philadelphia at NY Giants ( -1 )

Another huge game where the winner will be looking good for the playoffs and the loser not so much.  Philadelphia has the momentum and I think they pull off the slight upset.  Take Philadelphia.

Arizona at San Francisco ( +3.5 )

Arizona has actually played better on the road this season going 5-1.  They could lock up their division with a win here and I think they get it done.  Watch out NFC, Arizona is peaking at the right time again this year.  Take Arizona.

Good Luck in Week 14.

Thursday Night Pick

Pittsburgh at Cleveland ( +9.5 )

We all know Pittsburgh is having all sorts of trouble.  A loss here tonight and you can pretty much write off the Super Bowl champs.  It’s hard to make excuses for their collapse last week against Oakland but those things happen and with a win tonight , they still have a realistic shot of getting in the playoffs.  I love teams in Back Against the Wall games which this is.  So, why are the majority of the “experts” that I read today saying to take Cleveland and the points?  It’s going to be cold and windy.  Cleveland has shown some improvement since Brady Quinn took over.  It’s a division game with a road favorite of almost double digits.  Yes, all signs say to take Cleveland and the points.  I’m just not ready to write the Steelers off just yet.  I like them to win and a big game from Heath Miller and Rashard Mendenhall.  Cleveland will keep it close in the 1st half but the 2nd half belongs to Pittsburgh and the cover.  Take Pittsburgh.

Survivor Pool Picks 

I would like to thank the Oakland Raiders for supplying the biggest upset of the season and beating the Pittsburgh Steelers. They entered the game as more than a 2 touchdown underdog and pulled off a very impressive 4th quarter win. That upset did knock a few people from the Survivor Pools but would have done more damage if it was earlier in the season as many had already used their Pittsburgh pick. What does Week 14 have in store for the rest of us that are still alive?

The first thing we need to do is accept the fact that most people will be taking Tennessee. You might remember Tennessee as the team that started 0-6 and then won 5 in a row. It was a great Cinderella story that basically came to an end last week by the mighty Indianapolis Colts. Tennessee could still run the table and get to 9-7 but that won’t get them in the playoffs and they know it. This could be a letdown game for sure but luckily for them, and us, they get St. Louis at home. St. Louis has won only 1 game all year and that was against Detroit. Tennessee is a 13 point favorite and that’s more than you could hope for with a Week 14 selection. I think Tennessee is your safest pick this week and I will be among the 57.5 % of all remaining Survivor Pool participants taking them.

If you choose to go in a different direction perhaps to stay away from the more than half of the people that are taking Tennessee, here are 4 other teams to consider.

Pittsburgh: The Super Bowl champs have lost 4 in a row including last weeks huge upset. They play Thursday night as a 10 point road favorite to Cleveland. Cleveland has lost 7 in a row and all their home games this season. This is a back against the wall game for Pittsburgh in a game that is predicted to be played in frigid conditions. Sounds like a running game to me and that favors Pittsburgh.

New Orleans: I would be shocked if you still have New Orleans alive in your pool but some must as 3.7% of remaining participants have picked them for this week. They are 10 point road favorites at Atlanta. Atlanta did play them tough last month but since then the Falcons have been hit hard by injuries. New Orleans survived a major scare last week and they want the 16-0. Atlanta got picked apart last week by Philadelphia.

Baltimore: Every game is a must win for Baltimore as they are the first team on the outside looking in at the playoffs at this point. They get to play at home against Detroit and are 13 point favorites. Hard to imagine Detroit winning a road game in Baltimore. As of this writing, Detroit looks to be starting their back up quarterback and that plays well into the Ravens hands.

New England: New England is not a top team in the AFC right now. In fact, they are an average team at best. However they do play well at home and are a perfect 6-0 on the season. The Patriots have lost 2 in a row and a loss here opens the door for Miami and the Jets. Huge game for the Patriots and even though the 13.5 point spread might be a bit high, I would trust the Patriots at home in this one.

In case you are wondering how the percentages are playing out as of this writing late on Wednesday night, Tennessee has 57.5% of remaining Survivor Pool participants picking them. New England has 10.8%, Baltimore 9.8%, Pittsburgh 5.8% and New Orleans at 3.7%.

Here are my top 5 safest picks for this week:

1. Tennessee
2. Baltimore
3. New England
4. Pittsburgh
5. New Orleans

Survive and Advance.