Fantasy-Football-First

Archive for July, 2010

60 minutes of non stop fantasy football draft strategy talk is archived and available for listening.  Click on the RADIO tab at the top of the page or the BlogTalkRadio button on the right side of the page to listen to today’s podcast.  You can even download it to your MP3 player and take it with you!

Some highlights from today’s podcast hosted by John Charles of www.fantasy-football-first.com :

• We revealed our 5 tips to building a dominating fantasy football team this season.
• We explained why drafting a Running Back with both of your top 2 picks might not be the thing to do this year.
• We are not that  excited about Terrell Owens fantasy outlook.
• We revealed some players to avoid like Shonn Greene and Vincent Jackson.
• We revealed a SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER at each position.

FantasyFootballFirst, the podcast, hosted by John Charles gives you all the information that you find here at www.fantasy-football-first.com but goes into greater detail.  Listen and let us know what you think.

I just spent the weekend in one of my favorite cities, Pittsburgh.  I took my wife who had never been and I loved playing the role of tour guide.  Pittsburgh is a football town.  Yes they have a hockey team and a great baseball stadium and some players who wear a baseball uniform but it’s a football town.  Walking around the city on Saturday morning you would have thought there was a game by the number of football jerseys being worn.  It’s part of their normal year round wardrobe.  I turned on the radio and the announcer was talking about Mike Wallace, a wide receiver for the Steelers, and projected him to 1100 yards, 80 catches and 11 touchdowns this upcoming season.  If that turns out to be true, Mike Wallace would be a top 10 fantasy Wide Receiver this year and I don’t even have him ranked in my top 40.  Then I said the magic words. Sleeper.

The word Sleeper gets tossed around more than a frisbee on a college campus and yet no one agrees on its true defination.  Without over analyzing things, my defination of a Sleeper is  a player that you get much better production from than someone else taken at that point in the draft.  By the time your draft starts, most of the owners in your league will have read all the articles about potential sleepers and it’s like a hot tip at the horse track that everyone knows about.  My advice is to avoid the Sleeper columns on the major web sites and to research your potential sleepers on obscure sites, like this one here at www.fantasy-football-first.com.  If ESPN calls Justin Forsett a Sleeper and 10 million people read it then chances are that he is going to lose the definition of a Sleeper and might become so over hyped that he becomes a Bust by getting drafted too early in comparison to his actual production.

So let the other owners in your league read the Sleeper columns on Espn and Yahoo with ten million other people.  Here at www.fantasy-football-first.com, we put the first in our name because our goal is for just one guy to read our site and as a result, finish first.

I have come up with ten potential Sleepers for this upcoming season.  These are players that have the potential to do much better than their average draft position. 

Don’t nap on these 10 Sleepers.

QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford

Analysis: Stafford played 10 games last year limited by injuries.  He showed promise with his toughness and was the victim of a lot of dropped balls.  Surprisingly, Stafford had the 3rd best fantasy game among all Quarterbacks with his 40 points in Week 11.  I expect him to continue to get better and if things go well, could be a top 12 Quarterback this season.

Strategy:  Stafford is a player that you could target to be a back up QB or even a spot starter in leagues that allow you to play a QB as a Flex player.  Mock Drafts have him being drafted between the 9th and 14th rounds.  I would target him as a Sleeper pick in the 11th-12th round.

Ben Roethlisberger

Analysis:  In this type of situation you need to make up your own mind how you are going to play it well before your draft starts.  He’s suspended the first 4-6 games of the season and Pittsburgh has their bye week in Week 5 so there’s no chance he plays before Week 6.  If he wasn’t suspended, Roethlisberger would be a top 7 QB and probably go in the 4th round of most drafts.  He’s obviously going to fall in your league’s draft well past the 4th round because he’s going to miss the first half of the fantasy season.  This is a tough call but I am going to lean towards his suspension being just the 4 games and there will be no drop off in his production from last year once he returns.

Strategy:  The most interesting fantasy player of the season.  He was a top 5 QB last season who is going to fall into the late rounds in most drafts.  I am going to try to get him if for no other reason than to trade him when he returns and he’s the talk of the league.  Mock Drafts have him going in the 10th-13th round.  I am targeting him in the 10th and it could be a steal.

RUNNING BACKS

Matt Forte

Analysis:  This time last year some were making the debate that Forte was worthy of the # 1 pick.  He had a disappointing season in which he finished #18 for fantasy running backs.  He averaged 10.2 points a game.  Would you take 10 points a week out of your RB2 position?  I would.  I think he improves on that a bit this year and could average 12 points a game which should put him in the top 15.

Strategy:  Fantasy football owners have a short term memory so the thought of Forte being a first round bust last year will be fresh in their minds.  Mock Drafts have him going in the 4th-6th round and being the 21st running back selected.  I am targeting a 4th round steal and it might be hard to pass him up in the 3rd round.

Chris Wells

Analysis:  Wells finished 29th among all running backs last season but many people are touting him this season because Arizona figures to run the ball more with the retirement of Kurt Warner and he finished the season strong  last year averaging 16 fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks.  He’s in an interesting committee with Tim Hightower but I think Wells is going to average 10 points per game this season and be a top 20 running back.

Strategy:  Wells is all over the place in Mock Drafts so far this year going between the 2nd and 5th rounds.  I like for him to be a Sleeper in the 4th round if still available.  If he goes before that, consider yourself lucky you didn’t waste a real high draft pick.  This is the perfect example of someone who is a Sleeper if you can get him in the 4th-5th round but a potential Bust if you draft him in the 2nd round.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Wallace

Analysis:  Wallace finished 30th in fantasy wide receivers last year which is promising for a first year wide receiver but he had a lot of games in which he was shut down.  He had 6 games in which he had 3 fantasy points or less.  I need more consistency out of the Wide Receiver position.  They love him in Pittsburgh and expect big things this year.

Strategy:  Mock drafts have him going between the 5th and 10th rounds.  No way am I taking him before the 8th round but if he falls that far and I get numbers close to what Pittsburgh fans predict out of him then I will have a nice Sleeper.

Early Doucet

Analysis:  One of the best names in the NFL, reminds one of the side effects of their morning coffee.  Doucet barely played last year but will have an opportunity to be the slot receiver for the Cardinals with the departure of Anquan Boldin.   I expect enough production to give him enough fantasy value worthy of a WR4.

Strategy:  Many web sites are all over this pick as a late round sleeper.  With that being said, most fantasy owners tend to go with established veterans with their last Wide Receiver pick while I always try to go with a younger player.  Mock drafts have him going in the 11th-15th rounds.  I like him to be a WR4 and I would target him in the 13-14th round.

Brandon Gibson

Analysis:  It’s rare for a NFL player to be traded during the season but that’s exactly what happened to Brandon Gibson.  The numbers that stand out to me is how many times he was targeted in the games he played.  Over the last 7 weeks of the season, Gibson was thrown to at least 5 times in every game including a whopping 17 times in Week 11.  The only way you can get points from your wide receiver is for them to have the ball thrown to them and it appears the Rams want to get this kid the ball.

Strategy:  Gibson is not getting drafted in most Mock Drafts so far this season.  Watch his injury status and early preseason games.  If you are in a deep league, target him for a 4th or 5th WR slot.  A lot of upside but sometimes players like this just fade away too.

Who are some of your favorite Sleepers for this season?  Email me your thoughts and I’ll look to run the list in a future column.

Last night I participated in a 12 team standard style scoring fantasy football mock draft on Yahoo.  Normally I wouldn’t participate in something like this.  It’s like going out for your 21st birthday and ordering an O’douls but I am starting to get antsy as I am about 30 days away from my real draft so Let’s Mock!

My main concern with the Mock Draft was whether people were going to take it seriously because there’s no consequences but I am happy to say that it appeared everyone did.  I drafted out of the first position, a place where I am normally not in as the league I am in bases their draft order on the reverse order of finish from the previous season, and that was interesting.  When drafting first, you get that top pick which was Chris Johnson but then you have to wait a loooooooong time for it to come back to you.  When you have a top pick, one of your positions is going to suffer and for me it was the Wide Receiver position.  I’m fine with that as that’s the deepest position.

My strategy for this Mock Draft, and every other draft I participate in, is simply this: 

1. Draft the best available Running Back in the first round.
2. Draft a top 5 Quarterback.
3. Draft a top tier Tight End (this year the top tier goes 5 deep).
4. Draft a top ten Wide Receiver.
5. Develop committees for your WR2 and RB2 positions by building up depth in the middle rounds.
6. Take some late round chances on players that could help at the end of the season or be cut for Waiver Wire Pick Ups. Hit or Miss Picks.

Below you will see how it all played out with my comments in BOLD.

Your Team

You ever notice that magazines are getting smaller and smaller these days?  It used to take me a good three days of bathroom visits to get through a Sports Illustrated but now I can get it done in one, albeit a long one.  Blame the economy cutting back on advertising budgets.  Blame the internet for making magazines outdated by the time they get to you.  Maybe I’m old fashioned but I still like a good sports magazine.  If it’s any type of Preview or Special Issue then I get all excited and start loading up on the fiber because it’s gonna be a good night and I am going to come out of this a little wiser and a few pounds lighter.

ESPN the Mag is the first sports magazine to show up in my mail box each week.  Thanks to a lot of frequent flier miles on airlines that don’t fly to my city, I get to use my miles on magazine subscriptions.  I used to love ESPN the Mag when Bill Simmons wrote for them.  He’s my favorite writer and you can read him on Espn.com which I am sure you already know.  Occasionally he will write these Running Diary columns in which he writes as he is watching something like March Madness or a Celtics game.  Very entertaining. 

So with that in mind, I am going to do my own version of the Running Diary as I read ESPN the Mag’s NFL Fantasy Special Issue which arrived today.  I am sitting down to read it at 10:45 EST on July 20, 2010.  I am all excited! You will be taken inside my brain as I document my thoughts as I read the magazine. 

 This is going to be fun.

Let’s read !

10:45 pm:  Aaron Rodgers is on the cover.  He was huge last year.  I have him #1 in my Quarterback rankings.  He’s gonna go in the first round of your draft.  Is there an ESPN the Mag cover jinx?  Doesn’t matter to me as he’s not going to be on my team.  I’m not taking a Quarterback that early but I do like the Green Bay offense and I am getting all giddy about the possibility of getting Ryan Grant in the second round this year.  Also on the cover, they say there is a Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet inside! 

10:47 pm:  Flipping past the three page article on Aaron Rodgers, I come to their Fantasy Football Strategy Guide.  OK, here we go.  Their first tip is to take Adrian Peterson over Chris Johnson.  Their logic is that Chris Johnson had too many big plays last year and it’s unlikely to duplicate that this season and Adrian Peterson has been a consistent top 3 running back for 3 seasons.  If they want to take Adrian Peterson with the top pick I am perfectly fine to be stuck with Chris Johnson at number two.  I’ll manage.  But maybe Chris Johnson had so many big plays last season because Chris Johnson is pretty good and fast.  I’ll leave him at #1 on my Player Rankings.  Oh no, I just peaked at their Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet and guess who they have at #1 of their top 150?  Chris Johnson.  That’s what we call in the business world as a CYA move.  Cover Your Ass.  Way to go telling everyone to take Adrian Peterson at #1 and then rank Chris Johnson as #1.

10:55 pm:  Their # 2 tip is to avoid taking a Quarterback too early in the draft based on the Value Based Drafting theory.  I used to follow that theory but I got tired of watching people win championships in fantasy football by having the top Quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers last year, Drew Brees the year before, Tom Brady the year before and so on.  The NFL has changed.  It’s a passing league and until fantasy football leagues lower the points for Quarterbacks, you need to have a top 5, preferably a top 3 on your team to dominate your league.  It’s up to your league to determine whether QB’s are going to go in the 1st round or the 3rd round but whenever you need to draft one, you need to make sure you have a top one.  Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and yes, Matt Schaub are your top 5 this season.  One of those 5 needs to be on your team.  Wouldn’t you know it, they run a chart to prove their point that you should wait on drafting a Quarterback and in their chart they say that Aaron Rodgers is worthy of the #4 overall pick.  I’m getting confused.  Let’s see if they can rally.

11:12pm:  Their #3 tip is to avoid Vincent Jackson and take Malcolm Floyd as a Sleeper instead.  On their Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet they have Floyd ranked #56 on their Wide Receiver list.  I like the logic of this.  In fact I like the logic of this so much that on my Wide Receiver Player Rankings at the top of the page, you will see that I named Malcolm Floyd the Wide Receiver SLEEPER of the draft and have him ranked #32.  Shh, ESPN the Mag, don’t start hyping my SLEEPER PICK. 

11:17 pm:  Tip#4 tells us that the teams with the first pick of the first round and the last pick of the first round do better than those who draft in the middle of the first round.  Ughhh, thanks for the “tip”.

11:19 pm: Tip # 5 lets us know that Vince Young is a top 10 Quarterback.  I don’t necessarily agree as I have him at #20 but either way it doesn’t matter to me as this year I will have a top 5 Quarterback on my team.

11:21 pm:  Tip # 6 gives us the well known information that Running Backs tend to break down quickly after the age of 30 so watch out Justin Fargas, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward.  I’ll make the mental note but somehow I don’t think any of those players will be anywhere near my roster this season.

11:27 pm:  Tip #7 tells us to draft your back up players from West Coast teams like Oakland, Seattle and San Diego because if you have a questionable starter who is playing a late game and he’s ruled out then your back up can be inserted into your line up and you don’t have to be forced to make your line up decision before the early games.  I disagree 100%.  Draft the best team you can regardless of what time zone they play the majority of their games.  Injuries are the big equalizer in fantasy football, you can’t predict it you just have to deal with it.  Drafting your team based on assumptions that your star players might be questionable is too much of a stretch but if ESPN the Mag wants to fill their roster up with Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks, that’s fine with me.

11:39 pm:  Tip # 8 tells us the next Miles Austin is out there and look to a Jacoby Jones, Devin Aromashodu, Chaz Schilens, Laurent Robinson or  James Hardy to possibly be that guy.   I agree that every year a wide receiver comes out of no where and Miles Austin certainly did that.  But you need a Quarterback to get you the ball and Miles had that with Tony Romo.  All the wide receivers they mentioned don’t have a quarterback like a Romo except for ………Jacoby Jones.  I am putting him down as a late round target.  Thanks ESPN the Mag.

11:45 pm:  Tip # 9 tells us to think of Brandon Marshall as more of a Wes Welker than a Randy Moss because of his 8.5 yards per attempt on passes thrown 11 or more yards down field which has him ranked 52 out of 57 wide receivers with 48 or more vertical targets over the past two seasons.  OK, will do, thanks.  Oh by the way, aren’t both Wes Welker and Randy Moss good?

11:50 pm:  Tip # 10 breaks out a whole bunch of mathematical formulas such as Gold Zone Targets and Catches Per Target.  I’m just going to turn the page.

11:51 pm:  Tip # 11 tells us that Greg Olsen has upside this season.  Mental note.

11:55 pm:  Tip # 12 tells us not to sit your starters in bad weather games.  Not sure how this fits into an article they title Draft Strategy but I feel better knowing it.

11:57 pm:  Tip # 13 and they get a little crazy on us.  They say to try to draft all your star players with the same bye week.  That way you will tank one week and be stronger for the other weeks.  That’s borderline moronic.  Draft your starting line up based on who you think is going to perform the best.  Play to win each week.  Your goal should be to go 16-0 , not 15-1.  This isn’t the Indianapolis Colts.  That logic is almost as moronic as one of my buddies who plays the worst line up he can in Week 1 so that he can get the first dibs on the Week 1 Waiver Wire.  Play to win each week.

It took a little over an hour to get through ESPN the Mag’s NFL Fantasy Special.  I disagree with most of their tips because I believe in drafting your starting team based on anticipated performance and not such things as what time the games start, what the weather could be, who might be injured and bye weeks.  But they do have me thinking about Jacoby Jones……………..

Well it’s that time of year when all the fantasy football websites roll out their “Do’s and Don’ts” columns for draft strategy.  You know the ones where they tell you to not  draft a kicker before the last round, bring a cheat sheet, and don’t draft two quarterbacks with the same bye week.

Gee, thanks.

Here at Fantasy-Football-First, we put the “ First”  in our name because that’s where we want you to finish this year.  No excuses.  This is going to be your year if you stick with us.  No one goes undefeated in fantasy football so we know there will be ups and downs.  We know there will be that one week we will lose on a meaningless touchdown at the end of the Monday night game.  We know there will be that one week we start someone in the 4pm game who doesn’t play.  We know we will go up against a team that starts their 4th string wide receiver who goes for 3 td’s.  Those are all heartbreaks that we will have to deal with.  On the other hand, we know we are going to win our league and that’s more than going to make up for all those bumps in the road.

We do this for fun and the fun starts on Draft Day.

I love live drafts.  Sometimes I do participate in an online draft but there’s always something missing.  It’s kind of like poker.  Yes, you can be good at online poker but you never know how good you really are until you play face to face.  The following is a list of Do’s and Don’ts for live drafts based on my 15 years of experience. 

DO – know your league rules.

Sounds simple but you need to know what your league rules are especially regarding roster size, waiver wire pickups and injured players.  You would be surprised how many people I see asking these questions after the draft.

DO- try to get your league to do the draft order a day or two before the draft.

If you have a top 3 pick or a bottom 3 pick or one in the middle is something that would be nice to know before the draft.  Pulling out numbers 5 minutes before the draft does nobody any favors.

DO – get there early.

I’m not exactly sure why getting there early is important.  All I know is the drafts I got there late or was rushing ended up going badly. 

DON’T – Drink.

I know.  It’s a party.  Everyone is going to be drinking.  Every draft I consumed beers at I ended up with Benjamin Watson as my tight end.  Every year I didn’t, it was Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez.  You get the point.

DO – encourage others to drink responsibly.

DO – encourage your league to increase the roster limits.

Some leagues draft 12 players, some 14, some even 20.  Lobby for more players.  Since I know I am going to be more prepared than the other owners, I want to be able to draft more players at the end of the draft when you can still find good players.  The less players on the rosters, the more in the waiver wire pool where they will end up on the worse teams first.

DON’T – tank the first week to get the best waiver claims.

I actually know someone who does this every year.  Makes no sense. Play to win.

DO – find out who your owners root for and praise that teams players you don’t want.

If you know you have a bunch of Redskin fans in your league, talk up how good you think Larry Johnson will be this year and watch him fly off the board in the 2nd  round. 

DO – find out who you can email trade offers to  at work.

Nothing worse than making trade offers to the guy who never checks his email.

DON’T - draft with your heart.

If you are a Dallas fan and your team has Tony Romo, Miles Austin and Felix Jones then you didn’t do your homework.

DO – make sure your running back cheat sheet goes 50 deep.

You don’t want to be that guy flipping through the magazine with a few rounds to go. 

And finally, don’t forget to bring a cheat sheet, draft your kicker in the last round and don’t take two quarterbacks with the same bye week.

I like having CNBC on in the background during the day while I am working my real job trying to clean up the mortgage mess of the past 5 years.  If you watch it often enough you will notice that there are 3 sides to every financial argument.  There’s one guy that is always upbeat and optimistic, one that is acting like his plane is going down and the third  has no prediction and just wants to see how it all plays out.  It’s high class comedy to watch 3 financial experts talk about a single topic with three different opinions. 

It’s no different in fantasy football analysis except for one word. Expert.  I say there is no such thing as a fantasy football expert.

Yes, you can have an advanced knowledge of draft strategy and player projection that certainly can increase your chances of doing well.  Yes, you can do your homework by reading the magazines (although it’s usually outdated by the time you get it), the big corporate web sites, the medium fantasy football web sites and even the obscure blog like you are doing now.  That’s great and maybe entertaining but don’t fool yourself, it’s not “expert” analysis.  I just don’t think it exists in fantasy football. 

If you had a room of so called fantasy football experts and asked them about one player, chances are you will find some that are optimistic, pessimistic and undecided.  Just like those financial experts on CNBC. I like this time of year to research what web sites I am going to use during the season to help me with the decisions I need to make once the season starts.  My favorites and the ones I read almost daily are listed in the Links section on the right of the page.  I encourage you to bookmark a group of web sites that you are going to read this season.  Hopefully I am on your list.  Don’t just do what ESPN.com says or you’ll be sorry.  Read enough that you have time for so when faced with a decision either in your draft, waiver wire or line up, you will have become your own expert. 

Just because I’m not a fantasy football expert doesn’t mean I don’t  have opinions so if you have the questions, I’ll have an answer.  But better than that, I have Polls so you will get multiple opinions to help you make your own decision.

Let’s do the first Q & A column of the season.

Q.

A.

It’s certainly a good position to be in knowing that you will have a top 10 wide receiver locked up before the draft starts.  In my Wide Receiver Rankings at the top of the page I have Moss #5 and Marshall #8 so I favor Moss in this situation slightly.  According to the Fantasy Football Calculator, Moss has been the 2nd wide receiver selected in drafts so far while Marshall is the seventh.  Moss is in a contract year and probably in his last season with New England.  I think he is going to make a statement this season.  I know you must like Henne from reading your question but I am big on Tom Brady this year being fully recovered from the knee injury.  All signs are pointing to Brady-Moss having one more terrific season together.

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Q.

Some things in life seem obvious to some but apparently not everyone.

I probably say this every year but this summer seems to be the hottest one I can remember. I live outside Atlanta, Georgia and this past week we were well into the triple digits and the local news team was in a sweaty frenzy. Down here people take their local weather on the news very seriously. Most TV stations don’t just have one weather person to give us the forecast, they have 2 who keep throwing it back to the other to show us something else on the Super 3 D Doppler 2000 Future Supercast Radar. This past week they took it to a different level of hype as we were in the middle of Heat Wave 2010. The worse the weather got, the more disarray their clothes became. At the beginning of the week the weather guy was in his normal suit attire. The second day he lost the jacket and loosened the tie. The third day he had his sleeves rolled up. The fourth day he was in a golf shirt with the sweaty armpits. When the 5th day came, I was fully prepared for him to be standing there in a Speedo. At the end of each day’s weather forecast, he reminded us of some tips to beat the heat such as drink lots of clear fluids, limit our time outside and my personal favorite which was to stay cool.

Honey, can you get me the pen and paper? I need to write down some important tips.

One of the interesting things for me about running this web site is checking out my Stats page. It’s a page that I can see not only how many people visit the site and what pages they view but also how they got here. The most popular page other than the main page is the Running Backs rankings page. The least popular is the Donations page. Although I wish it was the other way around, I can certainly understand. The most important part of fantasy football is running backs. You can’t fake running back knowledge to be successful in a competitive league. If someone drafts CJ Spinner in the 3rd round and someone else asks “what team is that guy on?” then you’re not in a competitive league.

When reviewing my Stats page, I see that I get a lot of visits from people who type into their Google, Yahoo or Bing search engines “Who should I take with the first pick in my fantasy football draft?”. My site will come up high in those search rankings because the name is fantasy-football-first and that’s 3 keywords of that search term. But the interesting thing for me is the question because this year, more than ever, it’s obvious who the first pick should be. The same goes for the number 2 pick. There should be no doubt that Chris Johnson should go number 1 and Adrian Peterson number 2. After that I would take Maurice Jones-Drew and then Ray Rice at 4. That’s the last of the sure picks. The real draft starts at pick 5 this year.

Starting with the # 5 Running Back and continuing on through the rest of possible first round picks, each one has some causes for concern that you need to think about over the next few weeks before your draft. You need to determine whether you would feel comfortable enough with their baggage to have them as the most important player on your roster. They are:

Michael Turner: Is he durable enough to hold up for a full season? A big disappointment last year.

Steven Jackson: We know how good he is and how bad his team is. He was healthy last year for the most part but can you bank on that for another season?

Frank Gore: Lots of carries last year. Will that haunt him this year?

DeAngelo Williams: Do you want your first round pick to be in a Running Back By Committee?

Rashard Mendenhall: Played every game last year and finished as the #13 running back.

Ryan Grant: Got him cheap last year and put up great numbers. Won’t come cheap this year. Can he duplicate?

Shonn Greene: Are you comfortable taking a guy who has scored over 10 fantasy points 1 time and has LaDainian Tomlinson as his back up in the first round?

These are tough questions but no one said this was going to be easy. If you came here looking for advice on the first pick, it’s Chris Johnson.  If you need help with the rest, you can view my top 50 Running Backs at the top of the page or by clicking here.  You will also be able to see who I selected as my SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER. 

DRAFT STRATEGY:  I always draft the best available running back with my first pick.  After that, I will either go running back or quarterback with my second pick.  If you don’t get a second running back early in the draft, don’t panic.  Last year many successful teams were able to fill their #2 running back position with late round or even waiver wire picks like Ricky Williams, Justin Forsett or Jerome Harrison.  Avoid aging running backs like Clinton Portis for young ones that fans will be eager to see late in the season like Jahvid Best.  Always draft your #1 running back’s backup but don’t wait too long to do so.

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“Everything changed and then changed again”

About 10 years ago I was a branch manager of a local bank and my boss, some regional manager I would see maybe 3-4 times a year, would come waltzing into my branch and sit me down for a review.  Like all evaluations, they start by mentioning all these things positive as you sit there waiting for that one negative thing you know is coming.  Then he said it………”John, you seem to fear change.  You should embrace it.  Become a Change Agent”.  And off he went back to the hotel bar at the Marriott.  After that talk I became a changed man.  Change is good.  So I thought.

I was reminded of that conversation a few years ago after my fantasy football draft.  We were at a bar after the draft talking smack and all of a sudden someone mentioned that my fantasy team always looks the same.  They were right.  I had just drafted Steven Jackson in the first round for the 3rd year in a row.  I also had Peyton Manning, Tony Gonzalez, Adam Vinatieri and the New England Patriots Defense for the third time.  I joked that I was trying to save money by continuing to use the same magazine from 2005 but here it was again that this fear of change was following me around.

Time for a change.

I said good bye to Steven Jackson and his 100 yard, no touchdown games and late season injuries.  Thanks for the memories Adam Vinatieiri and the overrated Patriots defense.  Step aside Tony Gonzalez and make way for the new man in town Antonio Gates.  Not so fast Peyton Manning, you’re still with me.  Change felt good.

This year I am making a rather bold change in my fantasy football draft philosophy.  I no longer am endorsing taking a Running Back with your first two picks as a rule.  I think you need to at least consider taking a Quarterback at the end of the first round or at the beginning of the second round.   The league is changing and becoming more fantasy friendly to the Quarterbacks and this season is the first one where I am making it a priority to get a Quarterback early.

Let’s look at some numbers:

Last season 11 Quarterbacks averaged over  20 points per game.  In 2008, just 5 did.  Maybe it has something to do with the new rules on protecting the quarterback or maybe there has been a shift in play calling, whatever it is the fact remains that there is a change going on and we need to identify it and adapt to it. 

Last season the #1 Quarterback was Aaron Rodgers averaging 25.2 points per game.  The # 10 Quarterback was Eli Manning averaging 19.7.  That’s a 5.5 point per game average differential from 1-10.  In 2008, the #1 Quarterback was Drew Brees averaging 22.5 points per game while the #10 Quarterback was Tony Romo averaging 21.4 for just a 1.1 point differential from 1-10.  In 2008 you could have had any one of the top 10 Quarterbacks and it wouldn’t have mattered much but last year there was dramatic difference between the top tier of Quarterbacks and a lower tier that were starting for some teams in your league.

I am not a big stats guy but it does seem that teams are throwing more especially in the red zone.  But at the very least, you cannot dismiss the numbers that Aaron Rodgers put up last year and Drew Brees the year before and Tom Brady the year before that.  Eventually standard scoring leagues will adapt and lower the points given for passing yards and touchdown throws but until they do, take advantage.

DRAFT STRATEGY:  Many purists will endorse the RB-RB draft philosophy and go after a QB in the middle rounds.  I’m not saying I wouldn’t do that but I am now saying that you need to at least consider going RB-QB or even QB-RB if you have a late first round pick.  Just consider it.

Furthermore, in my main league which is expert level quality, the two teams in the championship had Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning as their Quarterbacks.  The team that had Chris Johnson as their #1 Running back didn’t make the playoffs. 

You can view my Preseason Top 30 Quarterbacks above or by clicking here.  You can also check out who I labelled a SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER.

This is where we separate the men from the boys in fantasy football. The Wide Receiver position. The most unpredictable position there is.

Let’s take a look at last year –Everyone loved Larry Fitzgerald. He was the preseason #1 Wide Receiver. He even went at the end of the first round in many drafts that I was in or read about. Outrageous. I said it then and I’ll say it now, a wide receiver should never go in the first 2 rounds of any standard scoring fantasy football league. Never. Last year Fitzgerald did not have a bad season at all. 97 catches for 1092 yards and 13 touchdowns is a great year. Those numbers equated to 11.9 points per game and he finished as the #6 Wide Receiver and #38 overall. That’s not worthy of a first round pick and the guy in your league who took him and missed the playoffs should agree.

Wide Receivers are too unpredictable and fantasy football is all about consistency. Let’s look at last years top Wide Receivers:

Andre Johnson- This years preseason # 1. Fantasy Football Calculator (link on the right of page) has him going #6 OVERALL in early drafts this year. Last year he was tops in fantasy points among wide receivers but during the first 12 weeks of the season last year, he had 4 games in which he put up less than 7 fantasy points. Throw in his bye week and 5 of the 12 games (almost half the season), he is not putting up first round pick numbers. Granted, he also had some huge monster weeks last season including weeks 14-16 which are the playoff weeks and very well could have won many a championship but you may not make the playoffs in your league if you are averaging less than 7 points per game in nearly half the regular season out of your first round pick.

Randy Moss- Very nice season last year in which he ranked # 2 in fantasy points for Wide Receivers. Early mock drafts so far this season have him going in the late first round. I don’t see why. Last season he had 3 weeks in which he scored less than 4 fantasy points. Can you afford that out of your 1st round pick?

Desean Jackson- He missed one game or he very well could have been last years top wide receiver. He’s not getting that much respect this year as mock drafts have him going in the late 2nd or early 3rd round. He had two games last year that he scored less than 3 points and he missed one game due to injury and yet finished only 1 point behind Randy Moss in total points. This very well could be someone you target in your drafts if you can get the same production out of him as Moss 20 spots lower in your draft.

Since fantasy football is about scoring points, let’s look at how last years points played out for all wide receivers. Last years #1 Wide Receiver (Desean Jackson) averaged 14.0 points per game. #10 (Roddy White) averaged 11.2, #20 (Greg Jennings) averaged 9.1 and #30 (Mike Wallace) averaged 6.9. This means for every 10 wide receivers the average production drops approximately 2 points per game. So don’t sweat it if you don’t get one of the top Wide Receivers, just make sure you get one in the top 10 for your #1 wide receiver. Then make up for it by drafting a #2 Wide Receiver soon afterwards and you’ll make up the points difference.

In my rankings for Wide Receiver, I went 40 deep and I like to think of it in 4 separate tiers (1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40). Three wide receivers will get at least two starts for you this season, get one from each of the 4 tiers and you’ll do fine.

DRAFT STRATEGY: Since I know that I will be passing on the top 5 Wide Receivers, I don’t even worry about it until my top 5 are off the board. Then, knowing that most fantasy owners will not draft a second wide receiver for a few rounds if they take one in the first round, I try to get one that I have ranked 7-10 hopefully in round 3. Then, I’ll look to target one of the wide receivers I have ranked in the 11-14 range in the 4th round. I concede one of the very best wide receivers to get two very good ones. For my third wide receiver, I am going to target the best wide receiver left from one of these three teams, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Green Bay as these are high powered offenses that are going to throw every week. For my last wide receiver pick, I like to take a risky pick. Perhaps someone coming off an injury, suspension, etc. Chances are this player will probably be cut at some point for waiver wire pick ups. The bottom line on wide receivers is that there are many quality ones, even the best get shut down nearly a third of the season so let others grab the top one and make up for it with quality depth later in the draft.

You can go to my preseason wide receiver rankings at the top of the page or by clicking here.  You will also see who I have selected as my SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER.

“Here we go”.

Those 3 simple words are usually said right after the first Tight End is selected each August in my fantasy football drafts. After the first one goes in the draft, 3 or 4 will follow right after that and you either got on the Tight End train or you missed it. I prefer to get on the Tight End train, in fact, I prefer to start the train.

Many magazines and web sites will tell you to avoid drafting a tight end earlier than the 7th round. For many years I followed that advice and would finish in the middle of the pack of my leagues and would wonder why considering I always drafted my team right off of the magazine cheat sheet. Then, about 5 years ago, I made a subtle change in my drafting philosophy and as a result I do pretty well and consistently have to claim 1099 income on my tax returns from fantasy football winnings. The Tight End changed my fantasy football life. The more teams in your league, the more important the position is. I play in a 12 team league and will draft my Tight End in the 5th round, if I was in a 14 team league I would look to draft my Tight End in the 4th round. It’s that important.

Consider this- Each year there are anywhere between 3-5 top tier Tight Ends, this year there are 5. That means more than half the league will not get a top tier Tight End. They will draft a couple tight ends in the late rounds and constantly try to play the match up game. I know because I get emails from these owners each week asking me who I would start between Ben Watson and Anthony Fasano. You don’t want to be in that situation. You want a top tier one that you know will be in your lineup every week except the bye week.

Last year Dallas Clark was the top Tight End averaging 11.1 points a game. That would have put him into the top 10 of Wide Receivers which is good but you can’t think of it that way. What you need to consider is that the #7 Tight End (Visanthe Shiancoe) averaged 7.1 points a game. That’s a 4 points per game difference between #1 and #7 at the Tight End position. That’s a significant point differential. In the Wide Receiver department, in which many magazines and web sites will tell you to draft in the 5th round instead of a Tight End, the # 1 position (Andre Johnson) averaged 13.7 points per game while the #7 (Brandon Marshall) averaged 11.7 for just a 2 point differential. Not only does drafting a top tier Tight End give you a 4 point average advantage over half of your league at the Tight End position, it gives your team 1 less top tier Tight End it has to go up against in head to head competition. There’s no logical explanation to not targeting a top tier Tight End. It’s been the biggest difference in my fantasy football life.

This year it appears the top tier Tight Ends go 5 deep. Dallas Clark was tops last year and will be there again if he can continue to stay healthy. Peyton Manning goes to him when the games mean the most. He averaged 11.1 last year but an impressive 16.5 in the last 3 weeks of the fantasy season. Vernon Davis finished second and I have him ranked second in the preseason as well. Antonio Gates is ranked 3 in my preseason poll and I might be short changing him. With Vincent Jackson’s situation murky at best, Gates’ stock would rise. I have Tony Gonzalez #4 coming off a consistent season in which he was banged up and Brent Celek is the last of my top tier at #5. You want one of these 5 on your team this year.

DRAFT STRATEGY: See above. Get one of the top 5, top 3 would even be better. Round 5 is where I like to start the run on Tight Ends. Don’t be caught 6 spots away when the run starts.

You can see the top 30 Tight Ends at the top of the page or by clicking here. You will also see who I have selected as my SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER.