Fantasy-Football-First

I don’t think I have looked forward to a weekend of NFL football games as much as I am this one in a few years. I made the Final Four of my fantasy league even though I put up average numbers in large part because my opponent had Larry Fitzgerald ( 2 points ! ). I am in the Final Four of the Survivor Pool that I am running on this site which is shocking because I disclose my pick on Wednesday nights for all to see. We also have 4 nights of football so we can spread out the drama. I’m pumped.

Let’s start with the Survivor Pool. If you are still alive, Congrats. We lost a few souls last week that took Pittsburgh to beat Oakland. Oakland has knocked more people out than any other team this season with their upsets over Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Be wary of those Raiders. This week the popular pick is Denver who is playing, you guessed it, Oakland. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Anything can happen this time of year. I have narrowed my choice to 3 teams:

Arizona: Arizona didn’t look right Monday night. Dropped passes, fumbles, etc. I still believe in Arizona and there is no better team to turn things around against than Detroit who gave up last week in Baltimore. Coming off a short week on the road is always a concern but Detroit is banged up enough to feel secure here.

Denver: Denver is at home as a 13 point favorite to Oakland. Oakland has had 10 days to prepare and get healthy for this one. Oakland still doesn’t know who their QB will be as of this writing and Denver looked like they did earlier in the season last week. Denver needs this one to stay in control of a wild card spot. They should get it done with a good running game.

Houston: Houston goes on the road as a 10 point favorite to St. Louis. Houston is playing well and St. Louis is banged up. You have to like Houston’s chances in this one.

Nationwide for people that are still alive and made their pick for the week already, 40.2% picked Denver. Houston is next with 19.5% and Arizona is at 15.4%. Philadelphia and Baltimore are getting some picks as well. Here’s my top 3 safest picks:

1. Arizona
2. Houston
3. Denver

My pick is Houston.  I would have liked to have chosen Arizona but I have already used them this season.  I understand the popular pick is Denver but I am not going up against Survivor Pool killing Oakland.  If Oakland’s secondary shuts down Brandon Marshall anything can happen and I am not going near that.  I’ll stick with Houston and the red hot Andre Johnson. 

Thursday Night Pick

Indianapolis at Jacksonville ( + 3 )

Before I get to my point spread pick, I am going to go out on a limb and call out the big boys of fantasy football such as ESPN.com, YAHOO.com, CBSSPORTS.com.  All of the major corporate web sites are getting this game wrong from a fantasy prospective in my opinion.  All 3 of these sites have Peyton Manning as a top 5 QB, Reggie Wayne as a top 10 WR, Joseph Addai as a top 10 RB and Dallas Clark as a top 5 TE.  Not going to happen.  I don’t see the Colts playing any of these guys more than a half tomorrow night.  All 3 of these sites have made mention that Indianapolis is going to treat this game as a normal game.  No way.  They aren’t stupid and they don’t care about the perfect record. 

It would actually be in the Colt’s best interest to lose this game.  If Indianapolis wins, it really hurts Jacksonville’s chances of making the playoffs but opens the door for the Jets, Steelers, Ravens among others.  Don’t you think they would rather have Jacksonville in the AFC playoff pool than the defensive teams such as the Jets, Steelers or Ravens.  The Colts will be playing on 3 days rest, they don’t need this game to stay sharp.  I based my Player Rankings above on the assumption that the Colts regulars play a half at the most. 

Watch for 2 things early on tomorrow night.  First, the Inactives Report comes out 90 minutes prior to game time.  There may be a surprise or two on there.  Second, if the Colts win the toss and take the ball as opposed to defer to the 2nd half, that means they are just wanting to get their offensive work in early and don’t care about the 2nd half.  If I end up being correct on calling out these big boy fantasy football sites then I fully expect to get a job offer in the off season to do Player Rankings for a major site.  I can be had pretty cheap.

The line on this game opened as the Colts favored by 6.5 and has dropped dramatically down to 3 which tells you that Vegas isn’t expecting a full effort out of the Colts.  Indianapolis plays 30 minutes, Jacksonville 60.  Take Jacksonville.