Fantasy-Football-First

The great thing about picking NFL games is that you control your own destiny. We hear that term often late in the season when teams are fighting for a playoff spot. Teams strive to control their own destiny and not have to depend on another team winning or losing to help them. In picking winners, I can either listen to all of the so called experts or I can make my own decision without their influence. I get to control my own destiny.

Last week, every expert that I read said to take the points with Baltimore. Some even called it their Best Bet of the week. Keep in mind, the services I consult with are not some dude on a message board but professionals that people fork over hundreds of dollars to get their advice. The more I read, the more I was convinced that I would be a fool not to take Baltimore. There was only one problem and that’s the fact that I have watched both teams all year and felt good about Indianapolis winning that game by more than a touchdown. I picked Indianapolis and won the game. It just seemed like the logical thing to do no matter how many experts were going the other way.

I’m no expert in picking games and my 52% winning percentage will back that up but it amazes me how many “experts” have a record below 50%. My system is simple. I read all the “experts” on Wednesday night and make my picks on Friday morning. That way I am not overly influenced by “Larry the Lock” who tells me that the Ravens cover 72% of the time when there is a full moon out. Sometimes the picks work out like my Indianapolis pick and sometimes they don’t work out like my Arizona pick. Either way, I control my own destiny.

Let’s do this.

NY Jets at Indianapolis ( -7.5 )

Indianapolis couldn’t have hoped for anything better than facing the # 6 and #5 seeds on their way to the Super Bowl. Seems like a walk in the park. Not so fast. The Jets are the only run first team left in the playoffs and that coupled with an absolute shut down cornerback means they can win any game in the trenches. I like the thought that the Jets have confidence going into this game after beating the Colts in Week 16. I watched that game very closely as it was my fantasy football Super Bowl and I had Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne. In the first half, the Colts were winning and moving the ball and the Jets weren’t against a short handed defense. If the Jets put Revis on Wayne, Manning will throw to Dallas Clark and vice versa. I like Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie to be the difference. If the Colts get ahead early, it could be a big win. Take Indianapolis.

Side Note: I read the article this week about the Jets head coach Rex Ryan’s 7,000 calorie a day diet. To put that in prosepctive, a man his size would burn about 250 calories a mile jogging. He would have to do about 28 miles to break even for the day. He needs his own reality show.

Minnesota at New Orleans ( -3.5 )

So much for New Orleans limping into the playoffs. They knocked Kurt Warner into a likely retirement and once again proved that they can be unstoppable at times. The announcers talked about how “focused” Reggie Bush looked in pregame warm ups. I very familiar with the term “focus” because I have to say it about 10 times a night to my 6 year old when he is doing his homework. You wouldn’t think a NFL player in the playoffs would have a problem with focus but you never know. I think he was probably worried about getting cut this off season because of his big contract and using the playoffs as an audition to get some team to overpay for next year.  That seems more likely than “focused”.  This game is going to be a shoot out and these might be the best two teams left in the playoffs. I think New Orleans stays focused and cruises to a cover. Take New Orleans.