Preseason Wide Receiver Rankings Revealed
July 8th, 2010
This is where we separate the men from the boys in fantasy football. The Wide Receiver position. The most unpredictable position there is.
Let’s take a look at last year –Everyone loved Larry Fitzgerald. He was the preseason #1 Wide Receiver. He even went at the end of the first round in many drafts that I was in or read about. Outrageous. I said it then and I’ll say it now, a wide receiver should never go in the first 2 rounds of any standard scoring fantasy football league. Never. Last year Fitzgerald did not have a bad season at all. 97 catches for 1092 yards and 13 touchdowns is a great year. Those numbers equated to 11.9 points per game and he finished as the #6 Wide Receiver and #38 overall. That’s not worthy of a first round pick and the guy in your league who took him and missed the playoffs should agree.
Wide Receivers are too unpredictable and fantasy football is all about consistency. Let’s look at last years top Wide Receivers:
Andre Johnson- This years preseason # 1. Fantasy Football Calculator (link on the right of page) has him going #6 OVERALL in early drafts this year. Last year he was tops in fantasy points among wide receivers but during the first 12 weeks of the season last year, he had 4 games in which he put up less than 7 fantasy points. Throw in his bye week and 5 of the 12 games (almost half the season), he is not putting up first round pick numbers. Granted, he also had some huge monster weeks last season including weeks 14-16 which are the playoff weeks and very well could have won many a championship but you may not make the playoffs in your league if you are averaging less than 7 points per game in nearly half the regular season out of your first round pick.
Randy Moss- Very nice season last year in which he ranked # 2 in fantasy points for Wide Receivers. Early mock drafts so far this season have him going in the late first round. I don’t see why. Last season he had 3 weeks in which he scored less than 4 fantasy points. Can you afford that out of your 1st round pick?
Desean Jackson- He missed one game or he very well could have been last years top wide receiver. He’s not getting that much respect this year as mock drafts have him going in the late 2nd or early 3rd round. He had two games last year that he scored less than 3 points and he missed one game due to injury and yet finished only 1 point behind Randy Moss in total points. This very well could be someone you target in your drafts if you can get the same production out of him as Moss 20 spots lower in your draft.
Since fantasy football is about scoring points, let’s look at how last years points played out for all wide receivers. Last years #1 Wide Receiver (Desean Jackson) averaged 14.0 points per game. #10 (Roddy White) averaged 11.2, #20 (Greg Jennings) averaged 9.1 and #30 (Mike Wallace) averaged 6.9. This means for every 10 wide receivers the average production drops approximately 2 points per game. So don’t sweat it if you don’t get one of the top Wide Receivers, just make sure you get one in the top 10 for your #1 wide receiver. Then make up for it by drafting a #2 Wide Receiver soon afterwards and you’ll make up the points difference.
In my rankings for Wide Receiver, I went 40 deep and I like to think of it in 4 separate tiers (1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40). Three wide receivers will get at least two starts for you this season, get one from each of the 4 tiers and you’ll do fine.
DRAFT STRATEGY: Since I know that I will be passing on the top 5 Wide Receivers, I don’t even worry about it until my top 5 are off the board. Then, knowing that most fantasy owners will not draft a second wide receiver for a few rounds if they take one in the first round, I try to get one that I have ranked 7-10 hopefully in round 3. Then, I’ll look to target one of the wide receivers I have ranked in the 11-14 range in the 4th round. I concede one of the very best wide receivers to get two very good ones. For my third wide receiver, I am going to target the best wide receiver left from one of these three teams, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Green Bay as these are high powered offenses that are going to throw every week. For my last wide receiver pick, I like to take a risky pick. Perhaps someone coming off an injury, suspension, etc. Chances are this player will probably be cut at some point for waiver wire pick ups. The bottom line on wide receivers is that there are many quality ones, even the best get shut down nearly a third of the season so let others grab the top one and make up for it with quality depth later in the draft.
You can go to my preseason wide receiver rankings at the top of the page or by clicking here. You will also see who I have selected as my SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER.
