Preseason Quarterback Rankings Revealed
July 9th, 2010
“Everything changed and then changed again”
About 10 years ago I was a branch manager of a local bank and my boss, some regional manager I would see maybe 3-4 times a year, would come waltzing into my branch and sit me down for a review. Like all evaluations, they start by mentioning all these things positive as you sit there waiting for that one negative thing you know is coming. Then he said it………”John, you seem to fear change. You should embrace it. Become a Change Agent”. And off he went back to the hotel bar at the Marriott. After that talk I became a changed man. Change is good. So I thought.
I was reminded of that conversation a few years ago after my fantasy football draft. We were at a bar after the draft talking smack and all of a sudden someone mentioned that my fantasy team always looks the same. They were right. I had just drafted Steven Jackson in the first round for the 3rd year in a row. I also had Peyton Manning, Tony Gonzalez, Adam Vinatieri and the New England Patriots Defense for the third time. I joked that I was trying to save money by continuing to use the same magazine from 2005 but here it was again that this fear of change was following me around.
Time for a change.
I said good bye to Steven Jackson and his 100 yard, no touchdown games and late season injuries. Thanks for the memories Adam Vinatieiri and the overrated Patriots defense. Step aside Tony Gonzalez and make way for the new man in town Antonio Gates. Not so fast Peyton Manning, you’re still with me. Change felt good.
This year I am making a rather bold change in my fantasy football draft philosophy. I no longer am endorsing taking a Running Back with your first two picks as a rule. I think you need to at least consider taking a Quarterback at the end of the first round or at the beginning of the second round. The league is changing and becoming more fantasy friendly to the Quarterbacks and this season is the first one where I am making it a priority to get a Quarterback early.
Let’s look at some numbers:
Last season 11 Quarterbacks averaged over 20 points per game. In 2008, just 5 did. Maybe it has something to do with the new rules on protecting the quarterback or maybe there has been a shift in play calling, whatever it is the fact remains that there is a change going on and we need to identify it and adapt to it.
Last season the #1 Quarterback was Aaron Rodgers averaging 25.2 points per game. The # 10 Quarterback was Eli Manning averaging 19.7. That’s a 5.5 point per game average differential from 1-10. In 2008, the #1 Quarterback was Drew Brees averaging 22.5 points per game while the #10 Quarterback was Tony Romo averaging 21.4 for just a 1.1 point differential from 1-10. In 2008 you could have had any one of the top 10 Quarterbacks and it wouldn’t have mattered much but last year there was dramatic difference between the top tier of Quarterbacks and a lower tier that were starting for some teams in your league.
I am not a big stats guy but it does seem that teams are throwing more especially in the red zone. But at the very least, you cannot dismiss the numbers that Aaron Rodgers put up last year and Drew Brees the year before and Tom Brady the year before that. Eventually standard scoring leagues will adapt and lower the points given for passing yards and touchdown throws but until they do, take advantage.
DRAFT STRATEGY: Many purists will endorse the RB-RB draft philosophy and go after a QB in the middle rounds. I’m not saying I wouldn’t do that but I am now saying that you need to at least consider going RB-QB or even QB-RB if you have a late first round pick. Just consider it.
Furthermore, in my main league which is expert level quality, the two teams in the championship had Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning as their Quarterbacks. The team that had Chris Johnson as their #1 Running back didn’t make the playoffs.
You can view my Preseason Top 30 Quarterbacks above or by clicking here. You can also check out who I labelled a SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER.
