Fantasy-Football-First

You ever notice that magazines are getting smaller and smaller these days?  It used to take me a good three days of bathroom visits to get through a Sports Illustrated but now I can get it done in one, albeit a long one.  Blame the economy cutting back on advertising budgets.  Blame the internet for making magazines outdated by the time they get to you.  Maybe I’m old fashioned but I still like a good sports magazine.  If it’s any type of Preview or Special Issue then I get all excited and start loading up on the fiber because it’s gonna be a good night and I am going to come out of this a little wiser and a few pounds lighter.

ESPN the Mag is the first sports magazine to show up in my mail box each week.  Thanks to a lot of frequent flier miles on airlines that don’t fly to my city, I get to use my miles on magazine subscriptions.  I used to love ESPN the Mag when Bill Simmons wrote for them.  He’s my favorite writer and you can read him on Espn.com which I am sure you already know.  Occasionally he will write these Running Diary columns in which he writes as he is watching something like March Madness or a Celtics game.  Very entertaining. 

So with that in mind, I am going to do my own version of the Running Diary as I read ESPN the Mag’s NFL Fantasy Special Issue which arrived today.  I am sitting down to read it at 10:45 EST on July 20, 2010.  I am all excited! You will be taken inside my brain as I document my thoughts as I read the magazine. 

 This is going to be fun.

Let’s read !

10:45 pm:  Aaron Rodgers is on the cover.  He was huge last year.  I have him #1 in my Quarterback rankings.  He’s gonna go in the first round of your draft.  Is there an ESPN the Mag cover jinx?  Doesn’t matter to me as he’s not going to be on my team.  I’m not taking a Quarterback that early but I do like the Green Bay offense and I am getting all giddy about the possibility of getting Ryan Grant in the second round this year.  Also on the cover, they say there is a Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet inside! 

10:47 pm:  Flipping past the three page article on Aaron Rodgers, I come to their Fantasy Football Strategy Guide.  OK, here we go.  Their first tip is to take Adrian Peterson over Chris Johnson.  Their logic is that Chris Johnson had too many big plays last year and it’s unlikely to duplicate that this season and Adrian Peterson has been a consistent top 3 running back for 3 seasons.  If they want to take Adrian Peterson with the top pick I am perfectly fine to be stuck with Chris Johnson at number two.  I’ll manage.  But maybe Chris Johnson had so many big plays last season because Chris Johnson is pretty good and fast.  I’ll leave him at #1 on my Player Rankings.  Oh no, I just peaked at their Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet and guess who they have at #1 of their top 150?  Chris Johnson.  That’s what we call in the business world as a CYA move.  Cover Your Ass.  Way to go telling everyone to take Adrian Peterson at #1 and then rank Chris Johnson as #1.

10:55 pm:  Their # 2 tip is to avoid taking a Quarterback too early in the draft based on the Value Based Drafting theory.  I used to follow that theory but I got tired of watching people win championships in fantasy football by having the top Quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers last year, Drew Brees the year before, Tom Brady the year before and so on.  The NFL has changed.  It’s a passing league and until fantasy football leagues lower the points for Quarterbacks, you need to have a top 5, preferably a top 3 on your team to dominate your league.  It’s up to your league to determine whether QB’s are going to go in the 1st round or the 3rd round but whenever you need to draft one, you need to make sure you have a top one.  Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and yes, Matt Schaub are your top 5 this season.  One of those 5 needs to be on your team.  Wouldn’t you know it, they run a chart to prove their point that you should wait on drafting a Quarterback and in their chart they say that Aaron Rodgers is worthy of the #4 overall pick.  I’m getting confused.  Let’s see if they can rally.

11:12pm:  Their #3 tip is to avoid Vincent Jackson and take Malcolm Floyd as a Sleeper instead.  On their Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet they have Floyd ranked #56 on their Wide Receiver list.  I like the logic of this.  In fact I like the logic of this so much that on my Wide Receiver Player Rankings at the top of the page, you will see that I named Malcolm Floyd the Wide Receiver SLEEPER of the draft and have him ranked #32.  Shh, ESPN the Mag, don’t start hyping my SLEEPER PICK. 

11:17 pm:  Tip#4 tells us that the teams with the first pick of the first round and the last pick of the first round do better than those who draft in the middle of the first round.  Ughhh, thanks for the “tip”.

11:19 pm: Tip # 5 lets us know that Vince Young is a top 10 Quarterback.  I don’t necessarily agree as I have him at #20 but either way it doesn’t matter to me as this year I will have a top 5 Quarterback on my team.

11:21 pm:  Tip # 6 gives us the well known information that Running Backs tend to break down quickly after the age of 30 so watch out Justin Fargas, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward.  I’ll make the mental note but somehow I don’t think any of those players will be anywhere near my roster this season.

11:27 pm:  Tip #7 tells us to draft your back up players from West Coast teams like Oakland, Seattle and San Diego because if you have a questionable starter who is playing a late game and he’s ruled out then your back up can be inserted into your line up and you don’t have to be forced to make your line up decision before the early games.  I disagree 100%.  Draft the best team you can regardless of what time zone they play the majority of their games.  Injuries are the big equalizer in fantasy football, you can’t predict it you just have to deal with it.  Drafting your team based on assumptions that your star players might be questionable is too much of a stretch but if ESPN the Mag wants to fill their roster up with Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks, that’s fine with me.

11:39 pm:  Tip # 8 tells us the next Miles Austin is out there and look to a Jacoby Jones, Devin Aromashodu, Chaz Schilens, Laurent Robinson or  James Hardy to possibly be that guy.   I agree that every year a wide receiver comes out of no where and Miles Austin certainly did that.  But you need a Quarterback to get you the ball and Miles had that with Tony Romo.  All the wide receivers they mentioned don’t have a quarterback like a Romo except for ………Jacoby Jones.  I am putting him down as a late round target.  Thanks ESPN the Mag.

11:45 pm:  Tip # 9 tells us to think of Brandon Marshall as more of a Wes Welker than a Randy Moss because of his 8.5 yards per attempt on passes thrown 11 or more yards down field which has him ranked 52 out of 57 wide receivers with 48 or more vertical targets over the past two seasons.  OK, will do, thanks.  Oh by the way, aren’t both Wes Welker and Randy Moss good?

11:50 pm:  Tip # 10 breaks out a whole bunch of mathematical formulas such as Gold Zone Targets and Catches Per Target.  I’m just going to turn the page.

11:51 pm:  Tip # 11 tells us that Greg Olsen has upside this season.  Mental note.

11:55 pm:  Tip # 12 tells us not to sit your starters in bad weather games.  Not sure how this fits into an article they title Draft Strategy but I feel better knowing it.

11:57 pm:  Tip # 13 and they get a little crazy on us.  They say to try to draft all your star players with the same bye week.  That way you will tank one week and be stronger for the other weeks.  That’s borderline moronic.  Draft your starting line up based on who you think is going to perform the best.  Play to win each week.  Your goal should be to go 16-0 , not 15-1.  This isn’t the Indianapolis Colts.  That logic is almost as moronic as one of my buddies who plays the worst line up he can in Week 1 so that he can get the first dibs on the Week 1 Waiver Wire.  Play to win each week.

It took a little over an hour to get through ESPN the Mag’s NFL Fantasy Special.  I disagree with most of their tips because I believe in drafting your starting team based on anticipated performance and not such things as what time the games start, what the weather could be, who might be injured and bye weeks.  But they do have me thinking about Jacoby Jones……………..