Fantasy-Football-First

I just spent the weekend in one of my favorite cities, Pittsburgh.  I took my wife who had never been and I loved playing the role of tour guide.  Pittsburgh is a football town.  Yes they have a hockey team and a great baseball stadium and some players who wear a baseball uniform but it’s a football town.  Walking around the city on Saturday morning you would have thought there was a game by the number of football jerseys being worn.  It’s part of their normal year round wardrobe.  I turned on the radio and the announcer was talking about Mike Wallace, a wide receiver for the Steelers, and projected him to 1100 yards, 80 catches and 11 touchdowns this upcoming season.  If that turns out to be true, Mike Wallace would be a top 10 fantasy Wide Receiver this year and I don’t even have him ranked in my top 40.  Then I said the magic words. Sleeper.

The word Sleeper gets tossed around more than a frisbee on a college campus and yet no one agrees on its true defination.  Without over analyzing things, my defination of a Sleeper is  a player that you get much better production from than someone else taken at that point in the draft.  By the time your draft starts, most of the owners in your league will have read all the articles about potential sleepers and it’s like a hot tip at the horse track that everyone knows about.  My advice is to avoid the Sleeper columns on the major web sites and to research your potential sleepers on obscure sites, like this one here at www.fantasy-football-first.com.  If ESPN calls Justin Forsett a Sleeper and 10 million people read it then chances are that he is going to lose the definition of a Sleeper and might become so over hyped that he becomes a Bust by getting drafted too early in comparison to his actual production.

So let the other owners in your league read the Sleeper columns on Espn and Yahoo with ten million other people.  Here at www.fantasy-football-first.com, we put the first in our name because our goal is for just one guy to read our site and as a result, finish first.

I have come up with ten potential Sleepers for this upcoming season.  These are players that have the potential to do much better than their average draft position. 

Don’t nap on these 10 Sleepers.

QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford

Analysis: Stafford played 10 games last year limited by injuries.  He showed promise with his toughness and was the victim of a lot of dropped balls.  Surprisingly, Stafford had the 3rd best fantasy game among all Quarterbacks with his 40 points in Week 11.  I expect him to continue to get better and if things go well, could be a top 12 Quarterback this season.

Strategy:  Stafford is a player that you could target to be a back up QB or even a spot starter in leagues that allow you to play a QB as a Flex player.  Mock Drafts have him being drafted between the 9th and 14th rounds.  I would target him as a Sleeper pick in the 11th-12th round.

Ben Roethlisberger

Analysis:  In this type of situation you need to make up your own mind how you are going to play it well before your draft starts.  He’s suspended the first 4-6 games of the season and Pittsburgh has their bye week in Week 5 so there’s no chance he plays before Week 6.  If he wasn’t suspended, Roethlisberger would be a top 7 QB and probably go in the 4th round of most drafts.  He’s obviously going to fall in your league’s draft well past the 4th round because he’s going to miss the first half of the fantasy season.  This is a tough call but I am going to lean towards his suspension being just the 4 games and there will be no drop off in his production from last year once he returns.

Strategy:  The most interesting fantasy player of the season.  He was a top 5 QB last season who is going to fall into the late rounds in most drafts.  I am going to try to get him if for no other reason than to trade him when he returns and he’s the talk of the league.  Mock Drafts have him going in the 10th-13th round.  I am targeting him in the 10th and it could be a steal.

RUNNING BACKS

Matt Forte

Analysis:  This time last year some were making the debate that Forte was worthy of the # 1 pick.  He had a disappointing season in which he finished #18 for fantasy running backs.  He averaged 10.2 points a game.  Would you take 10 points a week out of your RB2 position?  I would.  I think he improves on that a bit this year and could average 12 points a game which should put him in the top 15.

Strategy:  Fantasy football owners have a short term memory so the thought of Forte being a first round bust last year will be fresh in their minds.  Mock Drafts have him going in the 4th-6th round and being the 21st running back selected.  I am targeting a 4th round steal and it might be hard to pass him up in the 3rd round.

Chris Wells

Analysis:  Wells finished 29th among all running backs last season but many people are touting him this season because Arizona figures to run the ball more with the retirement of Kurt Warner and he finished the season strong  last year averaging 16 fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks.  He’s in an interesting committee with Tim Hightower but I think Wells is going to average 10 points per game this season and be a top 20 running back.

Strategy:  Wells is all over the place in Mock Drafts so far this year going between the 2nd and 5th rounds.  I like for him to be a Sleeper in the 4th round if still available.  If he goes before that, consider yourself lucky you didn’t waste a real high draft pick.  This is the perfect example of someone who is a Sleeper if you can get him in the 4th-5th round but a potential Bust if you draft him in the 2nd round.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Wallace

Analysis:  Wallace finished 30th in fantasy wide receivers last year which is promising for a first year wide receiver but he had a lot of games in which he was shut down.  He had 6 games in which he had 3 fantasy points or less.  I need more consistency out of the Wide Receiver position.  They love him in Pittsburgh and expect big things this year.

Strategy:  Mock drafts have him going between the 5th and 10th rounds.  No way am I taking him before the 8th round but if he falls that far and I get numbers close to what Pittsburgh fans predict out of him then I will have a nice Sleeper.

Early Doucet

Analysis:  One of the best names in the NFL, reminds one of the side effects of their morning coffee.  Doucet barely played last year but will have an opportunity to be the slot receiver for the Cardinals with the departure of Anquan Boldin.   I expect enough production to give him enough fantasy value worthy of a WR4.

Strategy:  Many web sites are all over this pick as a late round sleeper.  With that being said, most fantasy owners tend to go with established veterans with their last Wide Receiver pick while I always try to go with a younger player.  Mock drafts have him going in the 11th-15th rounds.  I like him to be a WR4 and I would target him in the 13-14th round.

Brandon Gibson

Analysis:  It’s rare for a NFL player to be traded during the season but that’s exactly what happened to Brandon Gibson.  The numbers that stand out to me is how many times he was targeted in the games he played.  Over the last 7 weeks of the season, Gibson was thrown to at least 5 times in every game including a whopping 17 times in Week 11.  The only way you can get points from your wide receiver is for them to have the ball thrown to them and it appears the Rams want to get this kid the ball.

Strategy:  Gibson is not getting drafted in most Mock Drafts so far this season.  Watch his injury status and early preseason games.  If you are in a deep league, target him for a 4th or 5th WR slot.  A lot of upside but sometimes players like this just fade away too.

Who are some of your favorite Sleepers for this season?  Email me your thoughts and I’ll look to run the list in a future column.