Fantasy-Football-First

Let me start this column by stating I am a big fan of the NFL, or as Troy Aikman would say, “the National Football League”. I pay who knows how much because it’s spread out over 6 months for the NFL Sunday ticket. I pay for something called “NFL to Go” even though I haven’t figured out yet how to get it to go. I buy the NFL sponsored jerseys. I drink the NFL sponsored beer. I type this column in my home office staring at my NFL pictures covered walls that I have accumulated over the years . I even decorate my Christmas tree with NFL sponsored ornaments and deal with the sighs of my wife for doing so. I’m just a fan and an occasional fantasy football blogger.

This week I got a chance to get out of my home bunker and get up close and personal for a few days with the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. Both teams have high hopes for this year coming off disappointing seasons. Both teams have players that are going to go in the first round of fantasy football drafts and many in the first three rounds. Both teams feature high powered offenses so it’s possible to find a late round sleeper on one of these teams.

I am a New England Patriots fan living in Northern Georgia. When the preseason schedule came out and I saw the Patriots were coming to Georgia, I was excited. When more details about the trip came out and I discovered the Patriots would also be practicing with the Falcons and some of those were open to the public, I became giddy. My assignment would be to cover the practice on Tuesday and the game on Thursday from a fantasy football prospective. Who am I kidding? I just want to see the Patriots in person.

Tuesday’s Practice:

The Patriots and Falcons were scheduled for two joint practices (the infamous “2 a days”) and both were open to the public. I elected to go to the afternoon session so I could bring my 7 year old intern, also known as my son. With my camera, notebook and cell phone in my hands and Bakugans in his, we headed out the door to make the 15 minute drive to the Falcons training facility.

The Atlanta Falcons practice in a small town called Flowery Branch, Georgia. It’s a nice complex located about an hour or so north of Atlanta. They have an indoor practice facility, college like dorms and 3 practice fields side by side. It was impressive and reminded me of where the Patriots practiced when I was a kid which was at Bryant College in Rhode Island. The Falcons usually do not get big crowds to their open practices but with the Patriots in town, it was tough to predict the turnout. It turned out there were just about the same number of players on the fields (about 160) as people watching.

The parking lot of the complex is for Atlanta Falcons employees and family only. The media has a special lot across the street with shuttle service and the rest of us have to park about a half mile down the road at a county park. Unfortunately the Falcons would not recognize “John Charles from www.fantasy-football-first.com” as a member of the media so I was ushered down to the county park. After making the nice walk to the training facility, I noticed the media check in station and decided to give it another shot to get a media pass. I walked up to the table and said “Hi, I am John Charles from www.fantasy-football-first.com and they told me I should check in here”. The lady checked the list and wouldn’t you know it, I wasn’t on the list and had to go into the general admission area roped off from the fields. Maybe it was my #51 Jerrod Mayo jersey I was wearing or my son’s, I mean interns’, #54 Teddy Bruschi jersey that made the lady suspicious. Interestingly though, almost every media outlet on the list did have a dot.com as the organization which just goes to show you that conventional media is dying and people go to the internet for news.

No Media Pass for you, Mr. Charles.

The air horns sounded and the players took their stations. You could easily tell that the players were mixed into groups depending on what string they were playing with. I immediately noticed that Wes Welker was practicing with the second string which has made me cautious of drafting him this year. He’s been going high in mock drafts but I think I am going to pass on him this year. Tom Brady and Randy Moss are chatting on the sidelines (both in contract years) and I doubt it’s about who is going to get kicked off Big Brother this week. The crowd was buzzing  about a long touchdown pass the two connected on during the morning session. I sent my intern over to the 790 the Fan radio booth to get some free swag and he returned with a 3XL (the only size they had) shirt for me and some stickers for him. I’m so old I remember when the standard give away t shirt size was XL and now it’s a whopping 3XL.

The first drill was onside kicks which was funny to me because I don’t recall the Patriots ever attempting one. The next 15 minutes fly by and the air horn sounds again signaling a change in stations. The next drill on the main field is Punting. I look down at my roster sheet and notice the Patriots are carrying one punter on their roster and he’s a rookie! I get nervous. Where is the veteran punter to mentor the kid in preseason? Why is there no competition for this position? What if the kid gets hurt? I am suddenly sweating the Patriots punting situation but my intern puts me at ease when he says “wow, he kicked that ball high” and I remember the phrase “In Belichick We Trust”.

The Intern is all smiles with the Patriots Special Teams

Reminding myself that I am a serious fantasy football blogger, I made the following notes from the afternoon practice:

• Michael Turner looks like he’s dropped a few pounds and is in great shape.  I know some fantasy sites are down on him this year, especially in PPR leagues, but I have him in my top 5 in all formats and noticed he spent a lot of time working on the screen pass plays.
• Tony Gonzalez appears to be 100% from what I saw.  He is still a top 5 Tight End in my rankings.
• Tom Brady spent a lot of time working on the deep pass to rookie Brandon Tate.  The Patriots usually limit Brady’s throws in practice (pitch count) so it was interesting to see that Tate was getting a lot of attention.  I like Tate as a late round sleeper especially in keeper leagues.
• Atlanta’s secondary looks weak.  Even in drills they were getting beat.

After another 90 minutes of practice, the last event was 7 on 7 drills with the first team of the Patriots going up against the first team of the Falcons alternating on offense and defense.  The crowd suddenly came to life as Tom Brady took the field.  I put down the notebook and became just a fan sitting on a hill watching the greatest quarterback in Patriots history.  We all know the story.  Backup quarterback at Michigan, drafted in the 7th round, 4th string in his first training camp and now one of the all time greatest.  15 minutes went by as if it was 15 seconds and then practice ended.  He got his work in and it was a pleasure to see.

Patriots all time greatest Quarterback

From a fantasy prospective, I have never had Brady on any of my fantasy teams and never will.  I like to diversify my emotional football portfolio.  But you should.  He’s a top 5 Quarterback this year and might end up at #1 when all is said and done in December.  Everyone loves Aaron Rodgers,Drew Brees and Peyton Manning but Brady is right there with them.

Practice was over and the players started to mingle.  Under the hot Georgia sun another day of training camp was over.  About 50 kids including my intern lined up along the fence with pens and paper in hand hoping for an autograph.  There were 160 players on the field and less than that watching by the end of the practice.  One player could have walked by and stuck his hand out and high fived every kid there in 30 seconds and gave those kids a moment they will never forget.  If every player signed just one autograph each of those kids would have gotten three.  Kids waited patiently and yelled out the name of their favorite players that were still mingling on the field.  Then security swooped in a said “The Atlanta Falcons have a no autograph policy” and that was that. 

The kids were upset and some parents were vocal in their displeasure and rightfully so.  I don’t blame the players.  I could tell many were looking at the kids and wanting to come over to sign.  Considering that 60 or so of the 160 players will be cut in 2 weeks and never play a down in an actual game, it may be the last chance to be asked for one.  I blame the Atlanta Falcons for this terrible policy and it’s owner Arthur Blank.  We came to your practice and purchased your goods at your merchandise booths set up in the parking lot.  You don’t allow your players the choice to sign an autograph on a poster they bought in your store for 15 bucks that cost you a penny to print.  Shame on you.  A fine day ended on a sour note and now I know why you get such a low turnout for your open practices.  You already got me to buy your goods and services but the intern is upset and might not be opening his wallet to you in the future.

Reacting to the Falcons No Autograph Policy

Thursday’s Game:

Bought a 65 dollar ticket on StubHub for 24 bucks and felt pretty good.  Took the subway downtown for 4 bucks roundtrip and walked right into the stadium.  I noticed the parking lot was filling up despite the 50 dollar parking charge (way to go again, Mr. Blank!).  I took a lap around the Georgia Dome concourse to check out the facility and settled into my seat.  10 minutes before kickoff and the place is virtually empty.  NFL fans are not showing up for the preseason games and who blames them when they have to pay full price to watch a practice game?

Not exactly blowing the roof off

The game went remarkably similar as the practice.  Tom Brady looked good. Wes Welker is not 100%.  Rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez is a nice sleeper at tight end. Randy Moss seems focused for now.  The Patriots running back situation is confusing.  For the Falcons, Matt Ryan looked above average.  Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez look real good and Roddy White should be a top 10 wide receiver.  The Falcons defense is shaky.

Final Scores:

Patriots: 28

Falcons: 10

Arthur Blank: Big Zero

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With the first weekend of the NFL preseason wrapping up, it’s a good time to update the Preseason Player Rankings, also known as “Cheat Sheets”. You can find the updated rankings at the top of the page. Here are some highlights of the new Player Rankings with some RANDOM THOUGHTS thrown in.

• Ben Roethslisberger cracks the top 30 Quarterbacks coming in at #29.  If I was a betting man, and I am, I would wager his suspension gets cut to 4 games at this point.  This makes him a back up quarterback in large leagues and a #3 Quarterback in leagues that can play two quarterbacks.

RANDOM THOUGHT:  School started this week in Georgia.  My first grader asked if he could walk to the bus stop by himself this year which is only about 200 yards down the street but there’s a dog leg left in which I would lose sight of him from my front porch for the last 20 yards and the actual bus stop itself.  Last year as a kindergartner, I would walk with him and give him a hug and wave as the bus drove by.  Best part of my morning.  This week I just watched him walk to the bus stop for as long as I could and then I followed him hiding behind bushes like some sort of stalker making sure he got on the bus alright.  Mornings aren’t going to be the same anymore.

• The biggest injury of the weekend is Houston Texans running back Ben Tate whom many, including myself, liked as a mid to late round quality pick up.  He’s out for the season and many people will say that Arian Foster would be the logical replacement.  Not so fast.  Look for Steve Slaton, only one season removed from being a top 10 running back, to be the big benefactor.  Slaton cracks my top 50 running backs at #32.

RANDOM THOUGHT:  Four months ago on my 39th birthday I vowed that I would get back to my high school weight and lose 50 pounds by my 40th birthday.  I have lost 30 so far.  The best thing about losing the weight was that I got a whole new wardrobe for free.  It was hiding in my closet the whole time. 

• Watch out for the Hard Knocks draft mistake.  This year the team being featured on Hard Knocks is the New York Jets, a team that very well could win the AFC East this year.  Chances are a few people in your league are watching the show and will draft some back up New York Jet on their roster after watching their story on Hard Knocks.  Don’t do it.  However, there is one New York Jet that is rising on my Tight End rankings and that’s Dustin Keller who has moved up to #22.

RANDOM THOUGHT:  You may think that to be a successful fantasy football owner you need to watch preseason games.  Not true and in fact, I recommend to not watch any preseason games before your draft.  It’s not NFL football.  It’s a shame most teams make the season ticket holders pay full price for these games only to have them played in nearly empty stadiums with players that will be cut in 3 weeks.  Don’t get fooled thinking you are going to find some hidden sleeper amongst these preseason games.  Just follow the injury updates after the games and don’t watch or you’ll end up wasting a roster spot because you were influenced watching a player perform in a glorified practice.

• Fast rising up the Wide Receiver rankings is Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace.  I may have severely undervalued him in my initial rankings as I did not have him in the top 40.  I think I have him properly ranked now all the way up to #20 making him a viable #2 wide receiver.

RANDOM THOUGHT:  As much as I hate NFL preseason games, I hate going to NFL games just as much.  I much rather watch it from the comforts of my own home where I can watch replays, flip to other games during commercials, pause, rewind, etc.  Why would I give that up for fighting traffic, sitting in a seat wedged in between a bunch of people that have been drinking all morning and barely fit into the seat.  Missing half the game because the fat ass in front of me keeps standing up to pick his wedge and having to stand in line to use an urinal.  No thanks.  I’m fine at home.  Except for this Thursday night when I will be actually going to a game, a preseason game nonetheless.  New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons here in Atlanta.  I’m a Patriots fan living in Atlanta who has never seen Tom Brady play in person and this might be my only chance to ever see that so I am making this very rare exception to actually attend a NFL sponsored event.  Going solo as it’s a school night.  Follow me on TWITTER ( link to the right of the page) as I tweet to my peeps throughout the game.

Your first round pick. The one you think about the most. The anchor of your team. The guy you pencil in your starting line up and never take him out except for a bye week. Your MVP. The most important guy on your team.

History tells us that there are no sure things in the first round, or any round for that matter. Some will get hurt and miss a few games, that’s life. But some will stay healthy and just not live up to the preseason hype or expectations.

Let’s look at last year’s consensus pre season Top 10 and see how they did and whether it was a good pick or not.

1. Adrian Peterson: Last year’s #1 pick finished as the # 2 running back. GOOD PICK.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew: Last year’s #2 pick finished as the # 3 running back. GOOD PICK.

3. Michael Turner: Last year’s #3 pick finished as the #19 running back. Hampered by injuries over last 6 games of the season. Prior to that he was performing well. BAD PICK.

4. Matt Forte: Last year’s # 4 pick finished as the #18 running back. Played every game so there’s no excuses. BAD PICK.

5. Steven Jackson: Last year’s # 5 pick finished as the #10 running back. Missed last game of fantasy season so might have been a bit higher. GOOD PICK.

6. Chris Johnson: Last year’s #6 pick finished as the #1 running back. GOOD PICK.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson: Last year’s # 7 pick finished as the #16 running back. BAD PICK.

8. Larry Fitzgerald: Last year’s #8 pick finished as the #6 wide receiver. Fitzgerald had a good season but not worthy of first round numbers. BAD PICK.

9. DeAngelo Williams: Last year’s # 9 pick finished as the #11 running back. GOOD PICK.

10. Andre Johnson: Last year’s #10 pick finished as the # 1 wide receiver but was #26 overall. This is why you shouldn’t pick a wide receiver in the first round. BAD PICK.

That’s five good picks and five bad picks so one might think that you have a 50-50 chance of making a good pick in the first round. Not true. Last year this web site cautioned against LaDainian Tomlinson in the first round as well as not taking a wide receiver in the first round. That’s 3 of the 5 bad picks where the reader’s of this site were told to shy away from in the first round. Now I didn’t get it all right of course. I endorsed Michael Turner as the #1 pick overall and although he was looking good early in the season, he missed 6 games and it ended up being a bad pick.

Let’s take a look at the consensus Top 10 for this year as it stands now according to the Fantasy Football Calculator and make some predictions about whether it will be a good pick or not.

1. Chris Johnson: I think he’s the real deal. GOOD PICK.

2. Adrian Peterson: Very consistent past few years. I think it continues. GOOD PICK.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew: I’m starting to get concerned about his age and amount of carries but I think he’ll still finish worthy of a first round pick. GOOD PICK.

4. Ray Rice: Last year’s # 4 Matt Forte turned out to be a first round bust and I wonder if that could be the case here as well where he puts up good numbers but not great which is what you want in the first round. I watched Rice a lot last year and I like the dual threats out of the backfield. GOOD PICK.

5. Andre Johnson: I am sure Johnson will put up great numbers as a wide receiver but I don’t take wide receivers in the first round. Doesn’t make sense. BAD PICK.

6. Frank Gore: This is where I am starting to worry a bit. I am not 100% sold. We know from history that some of these top running backs are going to be disappointments. BAD PICK.

7. Michael Turner: Tough call. Bounce back season or did he hit the wall? I say bounce back. GOOD PICK.

8. Steven Jackson: There is no denying his talent. But that team and his late season injuries and blowouts have me always cautious of Jackson. BAD PICK.

9. Randy Moss: No idea what to expect out of Moss this season. BAD PICK.

10. Aaron Rodgers: Normally I would not endorse a quarterback in the first round so I need to stick to my guns no matter how tempting it would be to take Rodgers. BAD PICK.

There are no sure things in the first round. Knowing that and accepting it gives you the advantage of the rest of your league. You need to think about each of these 10 players and whether you feel they are worthy of a first round pick because these are the names that are going to be staring at you when your first pick comes. Let’s hope you make a Good Pick.

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Each day I look at a report that tells me how many people visit the web site here at www.fantasy-football-first.com. Not only that but it tells me the location of the people that come to the site (Hello Beijing China) and more importantly, what brought them here. Most web site traffic comes through search engines like Google, Bing or Yahoo. People type something into the search engine and then a list of sites come up and they click on one they think might have the information they are looking for. We do it every day. It’s frustrating though when we don’t get the specific answer we are looking for.

In this week’s edition of Questions and Answers, I am going to answer the questions that were typed into the search engines today that brought people to my web site. I want to make sure that you receive an answer to your specific question.

Let’s do some Q+A:

Search Words = Who do I draft first in fantasy football?

Answer: Because of the name of the web site, we get a lot of traffic based on this type of question. The answer is Chris Johnson without a doubt. All leagues, all formats.

Search Words = How many running backs should I have on my fantasy team?

Answer: This answer depends on the specifics of your league. My league carries a roster size of 21 players so I may end up with 6 running backs. I think you should have a minimum of 4. I would certainly take another running back on my roster over a backup kicker or defense.

Search Words = Vincent Jackson fantasy value

Answer: This is the toughest call of the draft. You have a very talented player in a very bad situation. He’s suspended for the first 3 games of the season. You also should not start a player in their first game back from a suspension as you want to see how he is used and fits into the system that has been operating without him. Factor in the Chargers Week 10 bye week and you have Vincent Jackson as a viable option for 5 of the first 10 weeks of the season. That alone would make him as a # 3 Wide Receiver in my opinion but his situation is more complicated. He’s also unhappy with his contract and threatening to hold out. There’s also trade rumors which may or may not be good for him from a fantasy standpoint. The bottom line is that we will not know how this all will play out this month when drafting our teams. That makes him a # 4 Wide Receiver in my opinion. I would steer clear and let someone else worry about all this but if he was still around late in the draft and I was looking for my 4th wide receiver, I might pull the trigger. If someone drafts him any earlier than that then they are taking a lot of risk and my drafting philosophy is all about minimizing risk.

Search Words = What fantasy football positions do you draft first?

Answer: I always have drafted a running back first. I know some people make cases that if you have a late pick in the first round to draft a top quarterback or even a wide receiver in the first round but my philosophy is that the running back position is the most important position on your team and you need to start building your team with the very best running back so there’s no better place to start that than in round one.

Search Words= What is the best fantasy football magazine?

Answer: Fantasy football magazines are so 2005 yet people will pay the $6.95 to walk into a draft holding one that just ends up cluttering the draft table. It’s 2010 and the internet was made for fantasy football information. Why pay money for a magazine that was written in April when you can get information that is up to date and current? I get all my fantasy football information from the web sites listed on the right of this page in the Links section. I formulate my own cheat sheets in excel and continuously update them prior to my draft. Save the 7 bucks on the magazines.

Search Words = 16 team fantasy football strategy

Answer: The bigger your league is the more valuable the running back position becomes. I would look to select a Running Back with my first 2 picks of the draft in a league that big.

Search Words = How to do a fantasy football draft with two people missing

Answer: Wow. I could not imagine being in such a casual league where not one, but two people were going to miss the draft. Online it’s easy by just putting on Auto-Pilot and let the computer handle it. A live draft with two people missing would not be fun for me so I would look to cut the league by two and tell those people they’re out. If that’s not an option I do think there needs to be a penalty and that would be their first pick should be a kicker or defense. After that, just give them the best available player based on an universal cheat sheet to keep the integrity of the league intact.

Search Words = funny fantasy football team name

Answer: Back in college our dorm kickball team was known as the “Peter North Stars” and we got a big kick out of it because North Stars are an actual team name and Peter North is an actual porn star name so hence the “Peter North Stars”. Keeping with that sophomoric sense of humor, my favorite team name that I have seen recently has been the “Steve Breaston Plants”.

Side note: I happened to stumble upon a few minutes of Maurice Jones-Drew’s fantasy football radio show on XM radio this past weekend. It was very entertaining. I am going to try to listen to the whole show and write a column on it soon. If you get a chance, check it out.

It’s one of my favorite moments of a fantasy football draft.  You are watching an owner who is on the clock agonize over  his upcoming selection.  He is squirming in his seat, rubbing his forehead, starting to sweat.  He starts checking his cheat sheets, opening up his magazine and then staring off into space.  He takes a deep breath and you know what he is about to do.  He opens his mouth and says the name quietly.

He just drafted someone he didn’t really want.

You can look at any cheat sheet and see a ton of players that you want on your team.  You can also see a bunch that you don’t want for a wide variety of reasons such as they are injury prone, in a timeshare, character issues, etc.  Usually, most of these players have talent and have shown flashes of excellence but you know that it could go either way.  It could be a hit or a miss. 

Here is a group of players that are going to get drafted  in your fantasy draft but you might want to stock up on the Pepto-Bismol if they make it onto your roster because it’s not going to be easy. 

Quarterbacks

Phillip Rivers:  Doesn’t have a true #1 wide receiver to start the season and a rookie running back to block in the backfield will equate to Antonio Gates being tripled teamed and an increase in sacks.

Kevin Kolb:  Short lease in Philly and Michael Vick standing on the sideline.

Matt Cassel:  Kansas City’s 50 million dollar man still needs to prove he belongs.

Running Backs

Steven Jackson: Only missed one game last year.  What’s the chances he does that again?

Shonn Greene:  He has only had one real good game and LaDainian Tomlinson standing on the sidelines ready to swoop in for the 1 yard touchdown runs.

Ryan Matthews:  I tend to shy away from rookie running backs as they usually are over hyped.  Someone in your league will take him in the second round.

Wide Receivers

Randy Moss:  Contract season and he wants out.  Will Moss turn into Operation Shutdown to keep himself healthy to get out of New England?

Wes Welker:  The knee appears to be healthy according to the New England Patriots who are known for their honesty when it come to injuries, right?

Vincent Jackson: Nothing more frustrating than to try to properly assess fantasy value in August to someone facing a suspension and is threatening to hold out the season.

Tight Ends

Jason Witten:  Could help you early in the season but no chance he stays healthy all year.

Todd Heap:  I used to think Heap was going to be one of the greatest tight ends ever.  I suffered many years with him on my team thinking that.

Jeremy Shockey: Looks good on paper but it might be near the end of the road for Shockey.

My philosophy is that fantasy football is about minimizing risk.  Others believe it’s about taking chances.  Stock up on the Pepto-Bismol if you are going to draft these guys because it’s not going to be easy on your stomach.

60 minutes of non stop fantasy football draft strategy talk is archived and available for listening.  Click on the RADIO tab at the top of the page or the BlogTalkRadio button on the right side of the page to listen to today’s podcast.  You can even download it to your MP3 player and take it with you!

Some highlights from today’s podcast hosted by John Charles of www.fantasy-football-first.com :

• We revealed our 5 tips to building a dominating fantasy football team this season.
• We explained why drafting a Running Back with both of your top 2 picks might not be the thing to do this year.
• We are not that  excited about Terrell Owens fantasy outlook.
• We revealed some players to avoid like Shonn Greene and Vincent Jackson.
• We revealed a SLEEPER and SUPER SLEEPER at each position.

FantasyFootballFirst, the podcast, hosted by John Charles gives you all the information that you find here at www.fantasy-football-first.com but goes into greater detail.  Listen and let us know what you think.

I just spent the weekend in one of my favorite cities, Pittsburgh.  I took my wife who had never been and I loved playing the role of tour guide.  Pittsburgh is a football town.  Yes they have a hockey team and a great baseball stadium and some players who wear a baseball uniform but it’s a football town.  Walking around the city on Saturday morning you would have thought there was a game by the number of football jerseys being worn.  It’s part of their normal year round wardrobe.  I turned on the radio and the announcer was talking about Mike Wallace, a wide receiver for the Steelers, and projected him to 1100 yards, 80 catches and 11 touchdowns this upcoming season.  If that turns out to be true, Mike Wallace would be a top 10 fantasy Wide Receiver this year and I don’t even have him ranked in my top 40.  Then I said the magic words. Sleeper.

The word Sleeper gets tossed around more than a frisbee on a college campus and yet no one agrees on its true defination.  Without over analyzing things, my defination of a Sleeper is  a player that you get much better production from than someone else taken at that point in the draft.  By the time your draft starts, most of the owners in your league will have read all the articles about potential sleepers and it’s like a hot tip at the horse track that everyone knows about.  My advice is to avoid the Sleeper columns on the major web sites and to research your potential sleepers on obscure sites, like this one here at www.fantasy-football-first.com.  If ESPN calls Justin Forsett a Sleeper and 10 million people read it then chances are that he is going to lose the definition of a Sleeper and might become so over hyped that he becomes a Bust by getting drafted too early in comparison to his actual production.

So let the other owners in your league read the Sleeper columns on Espn and Yahoo with ten million other people.  Here at www.fantasy-football-first.com, we put the first in our name because our goal is for just one guy to read our site and as a result, finish first.

I have come up with ten potential Sleepers for this upcoming season.  These are players that have the potential to do much better than their average draft position. 

Don’t nap on these 10 Sleepers.

QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford

Analysis: Stafford played 10 games last year limited by injuries.  He showed promise with his toughness and was the victim of a lot of dropped balls.  Surprisingly, Stafford had the 3rd best fantasy game among all Quarterbacks with his 40 points in Week 11.  I expect him to continue to get better and if things go well, could be a top 12 Quarterback this season.

Strategy:  Stafford is a player that you could target to be a back up QB or even a spot starter in leagues that allow you to play a QB as a Flex player.  Mock Drafts have him being drafted between the 9th and 14th rounds.  I would target him as a Sleeper pick in the 11th-12th round.

Ben Roethlisberger

Analysis:  In this type of situation you need to make up your own mind how you are going to play it well before your draft starts.  He’s suspended the first 4-6 games of the season and Pittsburgh has their bye week in Week 5 so there’s no chance he plays before Week 6.  If he wasn’t suspended, Roethlisberger would be a top 7 QB and probably go in the 4th round of most drafts.  He’s obviously going to fall in your league’s draft well past the 4th round because he’s going to miss the first half of the fantasy season.  This is a tough call but I am going to lean towards his suspension being just the 4 games and there will be no drop off in his production from last year once he returns.

Strategy:  The most interesting fantasy player of the season.  He was a top 5 QB last season who is going to fall into the late rounds in most drafts.  I am going to try to get him if for no other reason than to trade him when he returns and he’s the talk of the league.  Mock Drafts have him going in the 10th-13th round.  I am targeting him in the 10th and it could be a steal.

RUNNING BACKS

Matt Forte

Analysis:  This time last year some were making the debate that Forte was worthy of the # 1 pick.  He had a disappointing season in which he finished #18 for fantasy running backs.  He averaged 10.2 points a game.  Would you take 10 points a week out of your RB2 position?  I would.  I think he improves on that a bit this year and could average 12 points a game which should put him in the top 15.

Strategy:  Fantasy football owners have a short term memory so the thought of Forte being a first round bust last year will be fresh in their minds.  Mock Drafts have him going in the 4th-6th round and being the 21st running back selected.  I am targeting a 4th round steal and it might be hard to pass him up in the 3rd round.

Chris Wells

Analysis:  Wells finished 29th among all running backs last season but many people are touting him this season because Arizona figures to run the ball more with the retirement of Kurt Warner and he finished the season strong  last year averaging 16 fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks.  He’s in an interesting committee with Tim Hightower but I think Wells is going to average 10 points per game this season and be a top 20 running back.

Strategy:  Wells is all over the place in Mock Drafts so far this year going between the 2nd and 5th rounds.  I like for him to be a Sleeper in the 4th round if still available.  If he goes before that, consider yourself lucky you didn’t waste a real high draft pick.  This is the perfect example of someone who is a Sleeper if you can get him in the 4th-5th round but a potential Bust if you draft him in the 2nd round.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Wallace

Analysis:  Wallace finished 30th in fantasy wide receivers last year which is promising for a first year wide receiver but he had a lot of games in which he was shut down.  He had 6 games in which he had 3 fantasy points or less.  I need more consistency out of the Wide Receiver position.  They love him in Pittsburgh and expect big things this year.

Strategy:  Mock drafts have him going between the 5th and 10th rounds.  No way am I taking him before the 8th round but if he falls that far and I get numbers close to what Pittsburgh fans predict out of him then I will have a nice Sleeper.

Early Doucet

Analysis:  One of the best names in the NFL, reminds one of the side effects of their morning coffee.  Doucet barely played last year but will have an opportunity to be the slot receiver for the Cardinals with the departure of Anquan Boldin.   I expect enough production to give him enough fantasy value worthy of a WR4.

Strategy:  Many web sites are all over this pick as a late round sleeper.  With that being said, most fantasy owners tend to go with established veterans with their last Wide Receiver pick while I always try to go with a younger player.  Mock drafts have him going in the 11th-15th rounds.  I like him to be a WR4 and I would target him in the 13-14th round.

Brandon Gibson

Analysis:  It’s rare for a NFL player to be traded during the season but that’s exactly what happened to Brandon Gibson.  The numbers that stand out to me is how many times he was targeted in the games he played.  Over the last 7 weeks of the season, Gibson was thrown to at least 5 times in every game including a whopping 17 times in Week 11.  The only way you can get points from your wide receiver is for them to have the ball thrown to them and it appears the Rams want to get this kid the ball.

Strategy:  Gibson is not getting drafted in most Mock Drafts so far this season.  Watch his injury status and early preseason games.  If you are in a deep league, target him for a 4th or 5th WR slot.  A lot of upside but sometimes players like this just fade away too.

Who are some of your favorite Sleepers for this season?  Email me your thoughts and I’ll look to run the list in a future column.

Last night I participated in a 12 team standard style scoring fantasy football mock draft on Yahoo.  Normally I wouldn’t participate in something like this.  It’s like going out for your 21st birthday and ordering an O’douls but I am starting to get antsy as I am about 30 days away from my real draft so Let’s Mock!

My main concern with the Mock Draft was whether people were going to take it seriously because there’s no consequences but I am happy to say that it appeared everyone did.  I drafted out of the first position, a place where I am normally not in as the league I am in bases their draft order on the reverse order of finish from the previous season, and that was interesting.  When drafting first, you get that top pick which was Chris Johnson but then you have to wait a loooooooong time for it to come back to you.  When you have a top pick, one of your positions is going to suffer and for me it was the Wide Receiver position.  I’m fine with that as that’s the deepest position.

My strategy for this Mock Draft, and every other draft I participate in, is simply this: 

1. Draft the best available Running Back in the first round.
2. Draft a top 5 Quarterback.
3. Draft a top tier Tight End (this year the top tier goes 5 deep).
4. Draft a top ten Wide Receiver.
5. Develop committees for your WR2 and RB2 positions by building up depth in the middle rounds.
6. Take some late round chances on players that could help at the end of the season or be cut for Waiver Wire Pick Ups. Hit or Miss Picks.

Below you will see how it all played out with my comments in BOLD.

Your Team

1. Chris Johnson (Ten – RB)  – No Question the top pick. 
2. Tom Brady (NE – QB)       – Have to get a top 5 QB.  I had him ranked # 4.
3. Roddy White (Atl – WR)    - My weakest position.  I had him ranked # 6.
4. Joseph Addai (Ind – RB)    - Not bad value here.  I had him ranked #13.
5. Tony Gonzalez (Atl – TE)   - Would have liked to have done a bit better but solid pick.
6. Brandon Jacobs (NYG – RB) - Risky pick but I’ll take my chances on this guy.
7. Wes Welker (NE – WR)      – With Brady as QB, it’s nice to have Welker as a WR2 or WR3.
8. Justin Forsett (Sea – RB)   - I’ll take him as a RB4 all day long.
9. Steve Breaston (Ari – WR)  -Some upside.
10. Jacoby Jones (Hou – WR) - Here’s my SLEEPER.
11. Terrell Owens (Buf – WR) – Here’s my HIT or MISS pick.
12. Kyle Orton (Den – QB) – Back up QB’s are back up QB’s.
13. Greg Olsen (Chi – TE) -Back up TE’s are Back up TE’s.
14. San Diego (SD – DEF) - Best available.
15. David Akers (Phi – K)  - Best available.
Round by Round results
* your team in bold

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Round 1
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Chris Johnson (Ten – RB)
(2) ricky – Adrian Peterson (Min – RB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac – RB)
(4) Slugger – Ray Rice (Bal – RB)
(5) swil81 – Frank Gore (SF – RB)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Michael Turner (Atl – RB)
(7) Carlos – Andre Johnson (Hou – WR)
(8) bamaL – Drew Brees (NO – QB)
(9) Sam – Rashard Mendenhall (Pit – RB)
(10) Kurt – Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB)
(11) gavinstitt – Peyton Manning (Ind – QB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Jamaal Charles (KC – RB)

Round 2
(1) Trent Edwards – Steven Jackson (StL – RB)
(2) gavinstitt – Randy Moss (NE – WR)
(3) Kurt – Larry Fitzgerald (Ari – WR)
(4) Sam – Ryan Mathews (SD – RB)
(5) bamaL – DeAngelo Williams (Car – RB)
(6) Carlos – Ryan Grant (GB – RB)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Miles Austin (Dal – WR)
(8) swil81 – Reggie Wayne (Ind – WR)
(9) Slugger – Brandon Marshall (Mia – WR)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Shonn Greene (NYJ – RB)
(11) ricky – DeSean Jackson (Phi – WR)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Tom Brady (NE – QB)

Round 3
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Roddy White (Atl – WR)
(2) ricky – Philip Rivers (SD – QB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Calvin Johnson (Det – WR)
(4) Slugger – Matt Schaub (Hou – QB)
(5) swil81 – Cedric Benson (Cin – RB)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Tony Romo (Dal – QB)
(7) Carlos – LeSean McCoy (Phi – RB)
(8) bamaL – Antonio Gates (SD – TE)
(9) Sam – Sidney Rice (Min – WR)
(10) Kurt – Pierre Thomas (NO – RB)
(11) gavinstitt – Beanie Wells (Ari – RB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Greg Jennings (GB – WR)

Round 4
(1) Trent Edwards – Marques Colston (NO – WR)
(2) gavinstitt – Anquan Boldin (Bal – WR)
(3) Kurt – Jahvid Best (Det – RB)
(4) Sam – Steve Smith (Car – WR)
(5) bamaL – Ronnie Brown (Mia – RB)
(6) Carlos – Dallas Clark (Ind – TE)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Vincent Jackson (SD – WR)
(8) swil81 – Steve Smith (NYG – WR)
(9) Slugger – Vernon Davis (SF – TE)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Chad Ochocinco (Cin – WR)
(11) ricky – Michael Crabtree (SF – WR)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Joseph Addai (Ind – RB)

Round 5
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Tony Gonzalez (Atl – TE)
(2) ricky – Knowshon Moreno (Den – RB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Jermichael Finley (GB – TE)
(4) Slugger – Dwayne Bowe (KC – WR)
(5) swil81 – Hakeem Nicks (NYG – WR)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – New York (NYJ – DEF)
(7) Carlos – Pierre Garcon (Ind – WR)
(8) bamaL – Hines Ward (Pit – WR)
(9) Sam – Brett Favre (Min – QB)
(10) Kurt – Jonathan Stewart (Car – RB)
(11) gavinstitt – Matt Forte (Chi – RB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Kevin Kolb (Phi – QB)

Round 6
(1) Trent Edwards – Percy Harvin (Min – WR)
(2) gavinstitt – Reggie Bush (NO – RB)
(3) Kurt – Jason Witten (Dal – TE)
(4) Sam – Mike Sims-Walker (Jac – WR)
(5) bamaL – Donald Driver (GB – WR)
(6) Carlos – Santana Moss (Was – WR)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Felix Jones (Dal – RB)
(8) swil81 – Jay Cutler (Chi – QB)
(9) Slugger – Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG – RB)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Jeremy Maclin (Phi – WR)
(11) ricky – Brent Celek (Phi – TE)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Brandon Jacobs (NYG – RB)

Round 7
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Wes Welker (NE – WR)
(2) ricky – Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Eli Manning (NYG – QB)
(4) Slugger – T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea – WR)
(5) swil81 – Owen Daniels (Hou – TE)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Mike Wallace (Pit – WR)
(7) Carlos – Donovan McNabb (Was – QB)
(8) bamaL – Dez Bryant (Dal – WR)
(9) Sam – Kellen Winslow (TB – TE)
(10) Kurt – Robert Meachem (NO – WR)
(11) gavinstitt – Matt Ryan (Atl – QB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Montario Hardesty (Cle – RB)

Round 8
(1) Trent Edwards – Jerome Harrison (Cle – RB)
(2) gavinstitt – C.J. Spiller (Buf – RB)
(3) Kurt – Johnny Knox (Chi – WR)
(4) Sam – Minnesota (Min – DEF)
(5) bamaL – Joe Flacco (Bal – QB)
(6) Carlos – Pittsburgh (Pit – DEF)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Visanthe Shiancoe (Min – TE)
(8) swil81 – Green Bay (GB – DEF)
(9) Slugger – Baltimore (Bal – DEF)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Philadelphia (Phi – DEF)
(11) ricky – Stephen Gostkowski (NE – K)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Justin Forsett (Sea – RB)

Round 9
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Steve Breaston (Ari – WR)
(2) ricky – San Francisco (SF – DEF)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Garrett Hartley (NO – K)
(4) Slugger – Nate Kaeding (SD – K)
(5) swil81 – Mason Crosby (GB – K)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Rob Bironas (Ten – K)
(7) Carlos – Ryan Longwell (Min – K)
(8) bamaL – Fred Jackson (Buf – RB)
(9) Sam – Lawrence Tynes (NYG – K)
(10) Kurt – Lee Evans (Buf – WR)
(11) gavinstitt – Ricky Williams (Mia – RB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Michael Bush (Oak – RB)

Round 10
(1) Trent Edwards – Darren McFadden (Oak – RB)
(2) gavinstitt – Demaryius Thomas (Den – WR)
(3) Kurt – New York (NYG – DEF)
(4) Sam – Marion Barber (Dal – RB)
(5) bamaL – LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ – RB)
(6) Carlos – Braylon Edwards (NYJ – WR)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Derrick Mason (Bal – WR)
(8) swil81 – Thomas Jones (KC – RB)
(9) Slugger – Clinton Portis (Was – RB)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Matthew Stafford (Det – QB)
(11) ricky – Devin Aromashodu (Chi – WR)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Jacoby Jones (Hou – WR)

Round 11
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Terrell Owens (Buf – WR)
(2) ricky – Ben Tate (Hou – RB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Carnell Williams (TB – RB)
(4) Slugger – John Carlson (Sea – TE)
(5) swil81 – Devin Hester (Chi – WR)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Arian Foster (Hou – RB)
(7) Carlos – Antonio Bryant (Cin – WR)
(8) bamaL – Austin Collie (Ind – WR)
(9) Sam – Eddie Royal (Den – WR)
(10) Kurt – Rian Lindell (Buf – K)
(11) gavinstitt – Santonio Holmes (NYJ – WR)
(12) Trent Edwards – Zach Miller (Oak – TE)

Round 12
(1) Trent Edwards – Dallas (Dal – DEF)
(2) gavinstitt – Chris Cooley (Was – TE)
(3) Kurt – Kenny Britt (Ten – WR)
(4) Sam – Carson Palmer (Cin – QB)
(5) bamaL – Ben Roethlisberger (Pit – QB)
(6) Carlos – Donald Brown (Ind – RB)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Alex Smith (SF – QB)
(8) swil81 – Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle – WR)
(9) Slugger – Julian Edelman (NE – WR)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ – WR)
(11) ricky – Kevin Walter (Hou – WR)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Kyle Orton (Den – QB)

Round 13
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – Greg Olsen (Chi – TE)
(2) ricky – Chad Henne (Mia – QB)
(3) scottpatoprsty – Devin Thomas (Was – WR)
(4) Slugger – Arrelious Benn (TB – WR)
(5) swil81 – Vince Young (Ten – QB)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Donnie Avery (StL – WR)
(7) Carlos – Dustin Keller (NYJ – TE)
(8) bamaL – Miami (Mia – DEF)
(9) Sam – Chaz Schilens (Oak – WR)
(10) Kurt – Heath Miller (Pit – TE)
(11) gavinstitt – Steve Slaton (Hou – RB)
(12) Trent Edwards – Josh Scobee (Jac – K)

Round 14
(1) Trent Edwards – Bernard Berrian (Min – WR)
(2) gavinstitt – Cincinnati (Cin – DEF)
(3) Kurt – Matt Cassel (KC – QB)
(4) Sam – Marcedes Lewis (Jac – TE)
(5) bamaL – Jeremy Shockey (NO – TE)
(6) Carlos – New Orleans (NO – DEF)
(7) Dumbmutt Inc – Todd Heap (Bal – TE)
(8) swil81 – Brandon Pettigrew (Det – TE)
(9) Slugger – Josh Johnson (TB – QB)
(10) scottpatoprsty – Anthony Fasano (Mia – TE)
(11) ricky – Sebastian Janikowski (Oak – K)
(12) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – San Diego (SD – DEF)

Round 15
(1) fantasyfootballfirst2010 – David Akers (Phi – K)
(2) ricky – Jermaine Gresham (Cin – TE)
(3) scottpatoprsty – John Kasay (Car – K)
(4) Slugger – Ryan Succop (KC – K)
(5) swil81 – Robbie Gould (Chi – K)
(6) Dumbmutt Inc – Indianapolis (Ind – DEF)
(7) Carlos – Byron Leftwich (Pit – QB)
(8) bamaL – Matt Prater (Den – K)
(9) Sam – Tennessee (Ten – DEF)
(10) Kurt – Jeff Reed (Pit – K)
(11) gavinstitt – Jay Feely (Ari – K)
(12) Trent Edwards – Golden Tate (Sea – WR)

You ever notice that magazines are getting smaller and smaller these days?  It used to take me a good three days of bathroom visits to get through a Sports Illustrated but now I can get it done in one, albeit a long one.  Blame the economy cutting back on advertising budgets.  Blame the internet for making magazines outdated by the time they get to you.  Maybe I’m old fashioned but I still like a good sports magazine.  If it’s any type of Preview or Special Issue then I get all excited and start loading up on the fiber because it’s gonna be a good night and I am going to come out of this a little wiser and a few pounds lighter.

ESPN the Mag is the first sports magazine to show up in my mail box each week.  Thanks to a lot of frequent flier miles on airlines that don’t fly to my city, I get to use my miles on magazine subscriptions.  I used to love ESPN the Mag when Bill Simmons wrote for them.  He’s my favorite writer and you can read him on Espn.com which I am sure you already know.  Occasionally he will write these Running Diary columns in which he writes as he is watching something like March Madness or a Celtics game.  Very entertaining. 

So with that in mind, I am going to do my own version of the Running Diary as I read ESPN the Mag’s NFL Fantasy Special Issue which arrived today.  I am sitting down to read it at 10:45 EST on July 20, 2010.  I am all excited! You will be taken inside my brain as I document my thoughts as I read the magazine. 

 This is going to be fun.

Let’s read !

10:45 pm:  Aaron Rodgers is on the cover.  He was huge last year.  I have him #1 in my Quarterback rankings.  He’s gonna go in the first round of your draft.  Is there an ESPN the Mag cover jinx?  Doesn’t matter to me as he’s not going to be on my team.  I’m not taking a Quarterback that early but I do like the Green Bay offense and I am getting all giddy about the possibility of getting Ryan Grant in the second round this year.  Also on the cover, they say there is a Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet inside! 

10:47 pm:  Flipping past the three page article on Aaron Rodgers, I come to their Fantasy Football Strategy Guide.  OK, here we go.  Their first tip is to take Adrian Peterson over Chris Johnson.  Their logic is that Chris Johnson had too many big plays last year and it’s unlikely to duplicate that this season and Adrian Peterson has been a consistent top 3 running back for 3 seasons.  If they want to take Adrian Peterson with the top pick I am perfectly fine to be stuck with Chris Johnson at number two.  I’ll manage.  But maybe Chris Johnson had so many big plays last season because Chris Johnson is pretty good and fast.  I’ll leave him at #1 on my Player Rankings.  Oh no, I just peaked at their Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet and guess who they have at #1 of their top 150?  Chris Johnson.  That’s what we call in the business world as a CYA move.  Cover Your Ass.  Way to go telling everyone to take Adrian Peterson at #1 and then rank Chris Johnson as #1.

10:55 pm:  Their # 2 tip is to avoid taking a Quarterback too early in the draft based on the Value Based Drafting theory.  I used to follow that theory but I got tired of watching people win championships in fantasy football by having the top Quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers last year, Drew Brees the year before, Tom Brady the year before and so on.  The NFL has changed.  It’s a passing league and until fantasy football leagues lower the points for Quarterbacks, you need to have a top 5, preferably a top 3 on your team to dominate your league.  It’s up to your league to determine whether QB’s are going to go in the 1st round or the 3rd round but whenever you need to draft one, you need to make sure you have a top one.  Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and yes, Matt Schaub are your top 5 this season.  One of those 5 needs to be on your team.  Wouldn’t you know it, they run a chart to prove their point that you should wait on drafting a Quarterback and in their chart they say that Aaron Rodgers is worthy of the #4 overall pick.  I’m getting confused.  Let’s see if they can rally.

11:12pm:  Their #3 tip is to avoid Vincent Jackson and take Malcolm Floyd as a Sleeper instead.  On their Bonus Pull Out Cheat Sheet they have Floyd ranked #56 on their Wide Receiver list.  I like the logic of this.  In fact I like the logic of this so much that on my Wide Receiver Player Rankings at the top of the page, you will see that I named Malcolm Floyd the Wide Receiver SLEEPER of the draft and have him ranked #32.  Shh, ESPN the Mag, don’t start hyping my SLEEPER PICK. 

11:17 pm:  Tip#4 tells us that the teams with the first pick of the first round and the last pick of the first round do better than those who draft in the middle of the first round.  Ughhh, thanks for the “tip”.

11:19 pm: Tip # 5 lets us know that Vince Young is a top 10 Quarterback.  I don’t necessarily agree as I have him at #20 but either way it doesn’t matter to me as this year I will have a top 5 Quarterback on my team.

11:21 pm:  Tip # 6 gives us the well known information that Running Backs tend to break down quickly after the age of 30 so watch out Justin Fargas, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward.  I’ll make the mental note but somehow I don’t think any of those players will be anywhere near my roster this season.

11:27 pm:  Tip #7 tells us to draft your back up players from West Coast teams like Oakland, Seattle and San Diego because if you have a questionable starter who is playing a late game and he’s ruled out then your back up can be inserted into your line up and you don’t have to be forced to make your line up decision before the early games.  I disagree 100%.  Draft the best team you can regardless of what time zone they play the majority of their games.  Injuries are the big equalizer in fantasy football, you can’t predict it you just have to deal with it.  Drafting your team based on assumptions that your star players might be questionable is too much of a stretch but if ESPN the Mag wants to fill their roster up with Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks, that’s fine with me.

11:39 pm:  Tip # 8 tells us the next Miles Austin is out there and look to a Jacoby Jones, Devin Aromashodu, Chaz Schilens, Laurent Robinson or  James Hardy to possibly be that guy.   I agree that every year a wide receiver comes out of no where and Miles Austin certainly did that.  But you need a Quarterback to get you the ball and Miles had that with Tony Romo.  All the wide receivers they mentioned don’t have a quarterback like a Romo except for ………Jacoby Jones.  I am putting him down as a late round target.  Thanks ESPN the Mag.

11:45 pm:  Tip # 9 tells us to think of Brandon Marshall as more of a Wes Welker than a Randy Moss because of his 8.5 yards per attempt on passes thrown 11 or more yards down field which has him ranked 52 out of 57 wide receivers with 48 or more vertical targets over the past two seasons.  OK, will do, thanks.  Oh by the way, aren’t both Wes Welker and Randy Moss good?

11:50 pm:  Tip # 10 breaks out a whole bunch of mathematical formulas such as Gold Zone Targets and Catches Per Target.  I’m just going to turn the page.

11:51 pm:  Tip # 11 tells us that Greg Olsen has upside this season.  Mental note.

11:55 pm:  Tip # 12 tells us not to sit your starters in bad weather games.  Not sure how this fits into an article they title Draft Strategy but I feel better knowing it.

11:57 pm:  Tip # 13 and they get a little crazy on us.  They say to try to draft all your star players with the same bye week.  That way you will tank one week and be stronger for the other weeks.  That’s borderline moronic.  Draft your starting line up based on who you think is going to perform the best.  Play to win each week.  Your goal should be to go 16-0 , not 15-1.  This isn’t the Indianapolis Colts.  That logic is almost as moronic as one of my buddies who plays the worst line up he can in Week 1 so that he can get the first dibs on the Week 1 Waiver Wire.  Play to win each week.

It took a little over an hour to get through ESPN the Mag’s NFL Fantasy Special.  I disagree with most of their tips because I believe in drafting your starting team based on anticipated performance and not such things as what time the games start, what the weather could be, who might be injured and bye weeks.  But they do have me thinking about Jacoby Jones……………..